The historian Stavrianos once lamented that China made seven voyages from 1405 to 1433, on a scale and scope far beyond columbus, Magellan, and da Gama a century later, and if Chinese made a geographical discovery like the Europeans, then the world would be a different place. It is not difficult to see that China is a civilized country, which is fundamentally different from colonial expansion in capitalist logic.
The Thucydides Trap: The Discourse Trap of the West
What is the Thucydides Trap? In fact, it has no direct connection with the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who proposed it by the American scholar Graham Allison. In order to characterize Sino-US relations in the 21st century, Allison artificially invented a "Thucydides Trap" based on Thucydides's description of the historical event of "the growth of Athenian power and thus the fear of Sparta" in that year. In Allison's view, in the face of the challenge of newly rising powers, existing powers are bound to take certain measures to eliminate potential threats in order to maintain their status as great powers, which will cause the inevitability of war. There are indeed examples in history of the war between ancient Athens and Sparta, the war of foreign aggression launched by Japan, and the world war waged by Germany. Since then, the term "Thucydides Trap" has often appeared in articles analyzing Sino-US relations.
In 2015, Allison came to Tsinghua University and gave a speech entitled "Can China and the United States Avoid the Thucydides Trap", which has received widespread attention from Chinese intellectuals and media circles. In 2017, Allison published his new book, Doomed to War I: Can China and the United States Avoid the Thucydides Trap? It systematically reviews the struggle for hegemony in the world system from the French Revolution in 1789 to the present. His research team believes that 12 of the world's 16 major rising powers challenging the defending powers have gone to war and fallen into this "trap".
Will the dilemma of relations between a rising China and the conservative United States and its allies trigger the "Thucydides Trap"?
President Xi Jinping said in a speech at the joint welcome banquet of the local government in Washington State and the United States friendship group: "We must adhere to the fact-based basis to prevent three people from becoming tigers, and we do not suspect that our neighbors will steal axes, and we cannot wear colored glasses to observe each other." There is no 'Thucydides Trap' in the world, but repeated strategic misjudgments between major powers may create a 'Thucydides Trap' for themselves. ”
In fact, although the "Thucydides Trap" can be partially confirmed in the modern international system centered on the West, it is no longer applicable in today's economic globalization. In his book The Rise and Fall of Great Powers, the American historian Paul Kennedy combed through the world's economic changes and military conflicts over the past 1500 years, and found that there were far more than 16 wars between great powers. Since the end of the Second World War, various international conflicts and regional wars still exist, but no war has broken out between the major powers.
In this way, the Thucydides Trap represents a stereotype of a few countries in the West. They argue that The rise of China will challenge the hegemony of a few Western countries, and that global conflicts will therefore be inevitable, and that at best they will be an academic corollary or conjecture of traditional Western theories of international relations, knowing that the Thucydides Trap can be seen as a historical phenomenon, but it is by no means based on historical laws based on inferences and conjectures. On the international stage, a small number of Western countries are very good at using the "discourse trap" to suppress and attack public opinion, that is, to package their own values in a seemingly neutral issue, theory or concept, forming a trap or trap hidden behind strong discourse.
We can restore the essence of the "Thucydides Trap" as a discourse trap in this way: the "Thucydides Trap" is a comparison between ancient and modern in form, and in terms of method, it does not examine reality according to history, but puts on a classical coat for the judgment of reality that has long been fixed in the mind, making it a pseudo-classical concept. Thucydides' own ideas are important objects of international relations and historical research, which are not easily known to the public, and the carefully packaged "Thucydides Trap" simplifies and abstracts the history of Thucydides and ancient Greece more than two thousand years ago, and in fact only borrows a historical name for a completely modern concept. The bewilderment of this packaging is that it is easy for ordinary people and political elites who are not familiar with history to think that the "Thucydides Trap" is a summary of the laws of history, and Sino-US relations will be a continuation of this logic.
In January 2014, the inaugural issue of The World Post published an exclusive interview with President Xi Jinping. In response to some people's concerns that China's rapid rise will inevitably clash with the United States, Xi Jinping pointed out: "We should all strive to avoid falling into the 'Thucydides trap', the idea that a great power can only pursue hegemony does not apply to China, and China does not have the genes to carry out such actions." "Unity is good for both sides, and fighting hurts both." The development of human society to this day, the economic ties of various countries are unprecedentedly close, modern international relations are a completely new picture, we have the conditions and ability to overcome the "Thucydides trap".
The "Kindleberg Trap": The Policy Trap of the West
Let's look at another trap, the Kindleberg Trap.
Charles P. Kindleberg, a well-known historian of the World Economy in the United States, believes that the catastrophe of the 1930s originated when the United States replaced Britain as the world's largest power, but failed to assume the same responsibility as Britain in providing public goods to the world. The United States, which replaced Britain as the world's largest economy, failed to take over Britain's role, leading to a recession, genocide, and world war in the global economic system. For globalization, there is a lack of providers of global public goods.
In January 2017, American political scientist Joseph Nye proposed the "Kindleberg Trap" theory. He believes that the trend after China's rise may not be to "show strength" but "show weakness", that is, it is unwilling to bear the supply of important international public goods that the United States is currently unable to be responsible for, thus plunging the world into a dangerous situation of leadership gaps and crises.
If the Thucydides Trap is about whether there will be war between emerging powers and conservative powers, then the "Kindleberg Trap" refers to the question of whether emerging powers can provide public goods to govern the world.
As we all know, the United States, as the world's number one power, has frantically "withdrawn from the group" in recent years. The United States first withdrew from the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership), leaving Japan and a group of other small partners stunned; then withdrew from the Paris Agreement, which made Europe indignant; then withdrew from UNESCO, paying 500 million US dollars, which is unprecedented; then withdrew from the United Nations Human Rights Council, the most human rights-oriented countries do not want to mention human rights; the reasons for the United States to withdraw from the Universal Postal Union are also incredible; the United States also withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Agreement; withdrew from the INF Treaty, Europe, Strategic stability in regions such as the Asia-Pacific region and Latin America was greatly challenged; then, the United States withdrew from the World Health Organization... Where the future goes still needs to be seen while walking.
At the same time, China has carried out an all-round, multi-level and three-dimensional diplomatic strategy, actively created good diplomatic relations, and adhered to the global governance concept of consultation, co-construction and sharing. For example, the implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, various cooperation summit forums with neighboring countries, and the informal meetings of APEC leaders. China also advocates the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind and promotes the reform of the global governance system.
Obviously, on the one hand, China adheres to the principle of "Taoguang and Obscurity", while at the same time seeking to "make a difference". However, it is worth noting that China's way of participating in global governance is still "never the right one", advocating a governance concept of "consultation, co-construction and sharing".
China's rise is a process from participatory rise to integrated rise and finally to constructive rise. That is to say, China did not rise through war to subvert the existing international system, but gradually integrated into the existing international system through economic opening up, and the existing international system provided sustainable and institutional benefits for China's rise. Therefore, maintaining and building the existing international system is in China's long-term interests.
In dealing with the "Kinderberg Trap", China has assumed the responsibility of a major country, reflecting the responsibility of a big country. In his speech at the opening ceremony of the video conference of the 73rd World Health Assembly, President Xi Jinping proposed five major measures for China to promote global anti-epidemic cooperation: China will provide US$2 billion in international assistance in two years to support the fight against the epidemic and economic and social recovery and development in countries affected by the epidemic, especially developing countries; China will cooperate with the United Nations to set up a global humanitarian response warehouse and hub in China, strive to ensure the supply chain of anti-epidemic materials, and establish a green channel for transportation and customs clearance China will establish 30 China-Africa counterpart hospital cooperation mechanisms, accelerate the construction of the headquarters of the African Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and help Africa improve its disease prevention and control capabilities; after the research and development of the NEW CROWN vaccine is completed and put into use, it will serve as a global public good to make China's contribution to the realization of the accessibility and affordability of vaccines in developing countries; China will work with the members of the G20 to implement the "Debt Repayment Suspension Initiative for the Poorest Countries" and is willing to work with the international community to increase support for countries with particularly severe epidemics and special pressures. Help them overcome their current difficulties.
It can be seen that China's rise is a responsible rise, And China's rise has not led to the lack of international public goods, but only the reform and innovation of existing international public goods, and due to changes in the international situation, the world needs new international public goods. China is the provider of new international public goods, which fully reflects China's world responsibility!
(This article is excerpted from "China's Self-Confidence Theory")
"China's Self-Confidence"
Xu Chuan
Published by CITIC Press
Starting from practical problems and using lively and vivid language, this book makes an in-depth and detailed exposition of the "four self-confidences" of socialism with Chinese characteristics. The book is divided into four chapters, which analyze in detail the logic behind road confidence, theoretical confidence, institutional confidence, and cultural self-confidence. This book answers the reader's question: What is the connotation behind the "four self-confidences"? Why can Chinese Communists have the "four self-confidences"? How can we enhance the "four self-confidences"? This book provides us with a new model for actively promoting Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era to popularize theory.
The author Xu Chuan, a deputy to the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, a part-time deputy secretary of the Jiangsu Provincial Youth League Committee, and the main speaker of CCTV's "Hundred Forums". He is currently a professor at Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, the Secretary of the Party Committee of the Marxist College, and the Vice President of the Party History Society of Jiangsu Province.
Author: Xu Chuan
Edit: Jin Jiuchao