Tianfeng Securities: Gave mona Lisa a buy rating with a target price of 28.34 yuan

2021-10-27 Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd. Bao Rongfu, Wang Tao conducted a study on mona Lisa and released a research report "Still maintaining good revenue growth in difficult times, looking forward to performance recovery", this report gives a buy rating to Mona Lisa, believing that its target price is 28.34 yuan, the current stock price is 20.01 yuan, and the expected increase is 41.63%.

Mona Lisa (002918)

21Q3 maintained good revenue growth, maintaining a "buy" rating

The company's 21Q1-3 achieved revenue of 4.927 billion yuan, yoy +47.7%, net profit attributable to the mother of 420 million yuan, yoy + 10%, single three quarters in the industry difficult period still maintained a revenue growth rate of 19.3% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to the mother fell by 16.9% year-on-year, or mainly affected by rising costs. In the first three quarters, the company's CFO net outflow was -130 million yuan, a year-on-year outflow of 0.1 billion yuan, and a net outflow of 300 million yuan in the third quarter of a single quarter. We believe that the tile industry in the third quarter by the power ratio, raw fuel costs, real estate boom and other factors affected, in a more difficult period, the company still maintained a good revenue growth, fully reflects the B / C two-wheel drive anti-risk ability. We believe that if the cost pressure falls in 22 years, the company's profitability is expected to recover, and we are optimistic about the ability to continue to grow in the medium and long term, maintaining a "buy" rating.

Revenue maintained steady growth, and profitability fell significantly in a single quarter

The company's Q1-3 single quarter revenue growth rate +106%/+60%/+19.3%, compared with the same period in 2019 growth rate of 65%/108%/72%, Q3 revenue growth rate has declined, we believe: 1) September 14 company announced that 7 production lines in Guangxi were affected by power rationing, and there were still 2 production lines affected after September 21; 2) Entering the third quarter of the real estate downstream was affected by the capital side, the prosperity dropped significantly, and the purchase restriction policy had a greater impact on second-hand housing transactions, making the company B/ Growth at both ends of C is under pressure. Q1-3 single quarter attributable net profit growth rate +18.93%/+32.85%/-16.87%, Q3 net interest rate of 7.6%, down 2.89pct year-on-year, profitability fell more often, making Q3 single quarter performance negative growth.

Q3 Gross margin may be mainly affected by the cost side, and the cash-to-cash ratio has decreased

The gross profit margin of single Q3 company was 30.1%, down 5.84pct year-on-year, the sales/management/financial/R&D expense ratio changed by -1.36/+0.63/+0.62/-0.23pct year-on-year, and the single-quarter credit impairment loss provision was basically the same as that in the same period in 2020. Q1-3 The company's gross profit margin decreased by 3.46pct year-on-year, and the sales/management/financial/R&D expense ratio changed by -1.54/+0.52/+0.51/+0.09pct. We believe that the company's profitability is under pressure mainly due to the large increase in raw fuel prices this year, if the margin of raw fuel prices in 2022 falls, the company's profitability is expected to bottom out, if the Q4 raw fuel prices are relatively stable month-on-month, then the downward pressure on profitability is also expected to weaken significantly. Q1-3 company cash ratio of 91.67%, down 7.89pct year-on-year. We believe that the company's cash in hand is relatively abundant, the financial soundness of the real estate downturn stage is outstanding, and if the marginal improvement of real estate financing improves in the future, the company's cash flow is expected to benefit.

21Q3 or the most difficult period, looking forward to the subsequent recovery of profits, maintain the "buy" rating

We believe that the 21Q3 industry faces more unfavorable factors, and the high base has exacerbated the downward pressure on profitability, and the Q4 pressure is expected to ease. Considering the current pressure on the downstream demand and cost side, we have lowered the company's 21-year profit forecast, but still optimistic about the 22/23 year growth, and expect EPS 1.43/2.18/3.03 yuan in 21-23 (previous value 1.80/2.40/3.06 yuan), At present, comparable companies 22 years Wind consistent expectations PE 12.5 times, the company's higher C-end ratio is expected to bring better report quality and growth robustness, giving 22 years 13 times PE, corresponding to the target price of 28.34 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating.

Risk warning: The increase in raw fuel prices exceeded expectations; the downward speed of demand at the B-end of real estate exceeded expectations; and the impact of policies such as power curtailment and emission reduction on the company's production and cost exceeded expectations.

A total of 20 institutions have given ratings in the last 90 days, with 16 buy ratings and 4 overweight ratings; the average target price of institutions in the past 90 days has been 42.61; the Securities Star Valuation Analysis Tool shows that mona Lisa (002918) good company rating is 3.5 stars, good price rating is 4 stars, and valuation comprehensive rating is 3.5 stars.