Under the guidance of the Guangzhou Municipal People's Government, promoted by the Financial and Economic Office of the Guangzhou Municipal Party Committee, and with the special support of the Guangzhou Development Zone Management Committee, the "2021 China Chief Economist Forum and the First Greater Bay Area (Huangpu) Economic Summit" jointly sponsored by the China Chief Economist Forum and Guangzhou Development Zone Holding Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Development Zone Holdings"), undertaken by Yuekai Securities and Guangzhou Kaide Capital, and co-organized by the Guangzhou Financial Industry Association and the Huangpu District Financial Industry Association, opened on October 21-22 at the Huangpu International Convention Center in Guangzhou.
Chen Zhiying, deputy secretary of the party group of the Guangzhou Municipal People's Government, and Chen Yong, secretary of the Huangpu District CPC Committee, attended the opening ceremony. Xia Bin, Chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum and Counsellor of the State Council, Lian Ping, Chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum and former Chief Economist of the Bank of Communications, Sheng Songcheng, President of the Research Institute of the China Chief Economist Forum and former Director of the Central Bank of China, as well as leaders of the Guangzhou Branch of the Chinese Minmin Bank, the Guangdong Securities Regulatory Bureau, the Guangdong Provincial Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau, the Guangdong Provincial Local Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau, and many first-class financial institutions at home and abroad and industry experts and scholars. Nearly 500 representatives of financial institutions and entrepreneurs attended the summit.
As one of the most influential economic forums in the world, with the strong support and promotion of the Guangzhou Municipal Government and the Financial and Economic Office of the Municipal Party Committee, the Greater Bay Area Summit of the China Chief Economist Forum has successfully settled in Guangzhou.
With the theme of "New Global Order and China's New Pattern", the forum invited many chief economists of first-class financial institutions at home and abroad, as well as industry experts and scholars, to share the latest research results on hot topics such as global political and economic changes, the development path of China's macro-economy and capital market, and the prospects of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area under the "double cycle" strategy, and provided wisdom and insights on how Guangzhou can be a good "vanguard" in promoting the "14th Five-Year Plan" and making a good start.
The first day of the forum is exciting, see :.
At the beginning of the forum on the second day, Yin Jianfeng, chief economist of Zheshang Bank, delivered a keynote speech on "Peak of People, Peak of Carbon and the Future of Capital Market", in which he proposed that China has ushered in the peak of the proportion of the working-age population and the peak of the working-age population in 2010 and 2015, and is expected to reach the third peak of the total population in 2027. In order to overcome the dilemma of peaking people, it is necessary to bring high return investment as a support, in order to achieve the double carbon target, in the period from 2020 to 2050, China will need to invest a total of 127 trillion yuan in energy, industry, construction, transportation, of which the energy industry investment is as high as nearly 100 trillion yuan. Therefore, the future of the capital market is the peak of people on the demand side and the carbon peak on the supply side!
Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CICC, delivered a keynote speech entitled "Greeting China's Innovation Economy", in which he proposed that China has entered a new stage of development, implementing the new development concept and building a new development pattern is ultimately reflected in high-quality development, with two important dimensions, scientific and technological innovation and common prosperity.
Peng Wensheng believes that scientific and technological innovation is the key driving force for China to achieve high-quality development, and promoting innovation is a systematic project that requires "effective market and promising government" to work together to form an effective ecosystem.
Yu Pingkang, chief economist of Kunzhi Asset Management, presided over a roundtable discussion on the theme of "A New Round of Innovation Prosperity and New Industrial Capital", and Zhao Wei, chief economist of Kaiyuan Securities, Li Zongguang, chief economist of Huaxing Capital, Liu Xiaoshu, chief economist of Bank of Qingdao, He Laigang, deputy general manager of Guangzhou Development Zone Industrial Fund Investment Group, and Liu Huanzhang, general manager of the investment banking department of Yuekai Securities, participated in the roundtable discussion.
Liu Yuhui, a special economist invited by Tianfeng Securities, delivered a keynote speech on "Understanding Three Things", in which he pointed out that the so-called "counter-cyclical" policy may actually be a "change of cycle", and China is undergoing a cycle turn, from the real estate cycle to the green electricity cycle.
Liu Yuhui believes that energy is the cornerstone of global governance, and in the face of unprecedented changes in a hundred years, China must seek an energy system that is completely independent of fossils and build a cornerstone that belongs entirely to China itself, green electricity. In order to grasp the leadership of the global carbon emission distribution order, the logic of carbon fundamentally lies in the most basic right to survive and distribute human beings.
Hong Hao, chief economist of BOCOM International, delivered a keynote speech entitled "China Market Strategy - Real Estate Changes, The Significance of Population Aging for Common Prosperity", pointing out that the asset allocation of Chinese households in real estate is more than twice that of the United States and Japan, and the proportion of China's total real estate value to GDP is also high. At a time when real estate demand is far less than the scale expected by consensus and real estate price growth is gradually peaking, excessive real estate allocation is becoming more and more out of place. The economic growth model that relies too much on real estate not only does not meet the goal of "common prosperity", but it is also difficult to maintain high-speed growth as in the past.
Hong Hao believes that the real challenge facing China is how to adjust its future economic growth model in the face of short-term costs. An aging population and a slowdown in investment mean that consumption will become increasingly important in the future; at a time when housing prices are peaking, a high proportion of real estate allocation indicates a readjustment of asset allocation to other assets such as stocks; and a slowdown in urbanization means that urban and rural rebalancing will be stable and far-reaching, and eventually towards a broad road of common prosperity.
Li Zhan, chief economist of China Merchants Fund, presided over the second roundtable discussion of the day with the theme of "Capital Market Development and Asset Allocation", and Yao Yudong, chief economist of Dacheng Fund, Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities, Wu Youhui, general manager of the macro strategy department of GF Fund, and Zhu Xiaozhao, chairman of Hangzhou Longqi Technology, participated in the roundtable discussion.
Finally, the summit entered the last link: closed-door discussion. There were three topics in this discussion, namely how the government guidance fund leads scientific and technological innovation, the new path of science and technology capital formation under the reform and deepening of the capital market, and how banking institutions can effectively serve the transformation of science and technology enterprises and scientific and technological achievements. At this point, the two-day China Chief Economist Forum and the First Greater Bay Area (Huangpu) Economic Summit came to a successful conclusion, and during the two-day meeting, the experts attending the meeting analyzed the global economic and financial macro situation with a broad and broad vision, interpreted the micro situation of the financial market with the skills of exploring the subtleties, and played the driving force of the high-end think tanks of financial institutions to draw a blueprint for the financial ecology of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.
Forum on China Chief Economists
On November 18, 2012, the China Chief Economist Forum (CCEF) was founded by Xia Bin, Counsellor of the State Council, former Director of the Institute of Finance of the Development Research Center of the State Council, and former Member of the Monetary Committee of the Central Bank of China, in Lujiazui, Shanghai, and served as the chairman of the forum. In 2016, the forum was successfully settled in Hongkou District.
As an unofficial, non-profit, perennial permanent economic and financial research platform, the China Chief Economist Forum is composed of chief economists of leading domestic and foreign banks, securities companies, investment banks, insurance, funds and asset management specializing in China's economic analysis. In the development process of the past decade so far, the forum has focused on the practical problems in China's economic development from a global perspective through annual meetings, seminars, colloquiums, the release of relevant reports, and the creation of influential research projects, and conveyed the truest voice of the market to decision-makers. In the past decade, forum members have published tens of thousands of professional reports, submitted thousands of policy recommendations to policy makers and regulators, published dozens of professional works, and held nearly 100 lectures.
About Guangzhou Development Zone Holding Group Co., Ltd
Founded in 1998, Guangzhou Development Zone Holding Group Co., Ltd. is one of the top 500 enterprises in China's service industry. The company is mainly engaged in science and technology finance, and its business covers three major sectors of finance, science and technology, and parks, with 14 holding companies and more than 110 shareholding companies. As of the end of June 2021, the company has a registered capital of 10.3 billion yuan and total assets of more than 120 billion yuan, with the highest "AAA" credit rating in China and Moody's "Baa1" and Fitch "BBB+" international credit ratings.