The golden age of real estate may be over.
The past two decades have been the golden age of real estate development, an "era of wealth creation for the whole people", and those who bought houses in the early days have achieved the appreciation of assets and even the leap of class.
Since the beginning of this year, I believe that everyone has been brushed by the news of real estate tax in the past two days, right? Why introduce real estate tax? What is the impact of real estate taxes? Let's take a look.~
Why is real estate tax currently being introduced?
Since 2017, the state has proposed "housing is not speculation", introduced policies such as restricting sales and purchase restrictions, and guiding prices for second-hand houses, but none of them involve the introduction of real estate taxes, so why did the state propose real estate taxes for the first time? There are three possible reasons:
❶ The introduction of real estate taxes is conducive to achieving common prosperity
The pressure of contemporary young people is very large, a house hollowed out six wallets, every month to pay off the mortgage to become a moonlight family, which is not conducive to our common prosperity. At this stage, we workers mainly pay income tax, while property tax (real estate tax, inheritance tax, etc.) is less collected, as the wealth cake becomes bigger, we need to divide the cake more fairly and narrow the gap between rich and poor. The introduction of real estate taxes can better regulate excessive incomes and provide social security for low-income groups.
❷ "Housing is not speculation", cracking down on speculation
In recent years, house prices have risen, and the income growth of our workers has become more and more unable to keep up with the rise in house prices, and we can only hope for the dust, regretting that we did not get on the car earlier...
In order to stabilize housing prices, the introduction of real estate taxes is very necessary, and the introduction of real estate taxes will crack down on speculation by increasing the holding cost of real estate, so that house prices will more reflect the demand for self-occupation.
❸ The transition from land finance to real estate tax is the future trend
In the past two decades, China's urbanization rate has been low, real estate has mushroomed rapidly, becoming the pillar of China's economic growth, and local governments have increasingly relied on land sales as a source of fiscal revenue. At present, China's urbanization rate is 63.9% (the seventh census data), gradually entering the end, local governments can sell less and less land, need to supplement the local "money bag" through real estate taxes.
The above views are derived from Zeping Macro and do not represent the views of the Southern Fund
How is real estate tax levied?
The duration of the real estate tax pilot is five years, during which time the property tax may not be collected very strongly. Specifically, the collection of property tax has the following three characteristics:
First of all, there may be a higher exemption for real estate tax, that is, the threshold for taxation is relatively high. If you have an 80-square-meter house, and the exemption is relatively high, there are 100 square meters, then you do not have to pay real estate tax (here are only examples, the exemption area is subject to the detailed rules)
Secondly, the tax rate of real estate tax will not be too high at the beginning, and the size of the tax rate needs to take into account the income level. For example, the per capita income of developed countries is higher, and the corresponding tax rate is relatively high; in contrast, China's per capita income is lower, and the tax rate will not be too high. For newly bought houses, Shanghai's property tax rate is only 0.4%-0.6%, which is not too high. (Sources of the above views are from the Southern Fund)
Finally, real estate taxes will be piloted in a small range of cities, possibly in cities with higher housing prices and faster home price increases. We have mentioned that one of the purposes of the real estate tax is to combat speculation and achieve common prosperity, in these cities, the pressure of residents to buy a house is relatively large, through the real estate tax to combat speculation, so that everyone can get on the car more easily.
What will be the impact of the introduction of real estate taxes?
The introduction of real estate taxes may have a certain impact on the market in the short term, but in the long run, house prices are still determined by supply and demand.
In the short term, the introduction of real estate taxes may affect the mood of buying a house. In the context of the country's strict regulation of real estate this year, the heat of the market has already declined, and the introduction of real estate taxes at this point in time may further affect everyone's mood to buy a house. People originally wanted to buy a house, but as soon as they heard that the real estate tax was about to be introduced, they would remain more cautious.
In the long run, house prices are ultimately determined by supply and demand, and real estate taxes are only one factor affecting supply and demand. The real estate tax is more to combat speculation and speculation, and it is more reflective of the properties of residence. For some large cities with net population inflows, everyone wants to buy a house in a big city, and the demand is relatively strong, so the impact of real estate taxes on house prices is relatively limited; and for some small cities with net population outflows, even if there is no real estate tax, house prices may be in a relatively depressed state.
After the housing is not speculated, the road to making money by investing in real estate will become more and more difficult, and the money in the market may flow more into stocks, bonds and other assets, the golden twenty years of real estate may end, and the future may be the golden age of the capital market!
Image source: Golden Ten Express
(Investment is risky, you need to be cautious when entering the market)