Cheng Li (Director of the John Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution, USA, China And Foreign Affairs Expert, Ph.D.)
On August 30, Eastern Time, the United States announced the completion of its withdrawal from Afghanistan. This marks the official end of the nearly 20-year war between the U.S. military and Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the 20th anniversary of 9/11 is approaching.
What far-reaching impacts have 9/11 had over the past 20 years? What is the intrinsic logical connection with the recent U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan? What has changed in the United States?
In this regard, the Beijing News Xinjing Think Tank talked with Dr. Li Cheng, director of the John Thornton China Center of the Brookings Institution and an expert on China issues and foreign affairs in the United States, who now lives in Washington.
The Brookings Institution is the world's number one think tank and has an important impact on the attitude and strategy of US politics and industry towards China.
Li Cheng is the first Chinese director of the John Thornton China Center in a hundred years and has a deep understanding of the politics and society of both China and the United States.
The superiority of the Americans is being challenged as never before
New Beijing Think Tank: The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan appears to be hasty. Some argue that Afghanistan was a failure of the U.S. "democratic experiment," while others say the fiasco marked the end of the American century. What do you think about that?
Li Cheng: There is some truth in both of these views, and this is also the view of some people in the United States. But I think both of these views are narrow and misleading.
As far as the first point of view is concerned, first of all, the main reason why the United States sent troops to Afghanistan 20 years ago has nothing to do with democracy. At that time, there were two main motives for sending troops, the first was the strong reaction of the United States after the 9/11 attacks, and it was to eliminate the base camp or protection center of terrorists. This is the main reason.
Second, it is because of the geopolitical importance of Afghanistan. This is a contested ground for the United States to expand its sphere of influence in Asia. Controlling Afghanistan, a strategic location at the crossroads of West Asia, South Asia, and Central Asia, is the commanding heights that can help the United States play a great power game.
With the protracted OCCUPATION OF AFGHANISTAN BY THE UNITED STATES MILITARY, especially in the following decade, improving the human rights situation and protecting women's rights and interests became additional reasons for continuing to occupy Afghanistan. Some of the reasons may be just excuses. Although the United States often has idealistic voices in its foreign relations, it is only a minority among policymakers.
Now, the situation in Afghanistan has changed drastically, and the security of the United States on its own soil will face major challenges.
As for the second point, in fact, this is not the first time that people have proposed the end of the "American century".
The outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008 and the many chaos and crises in the domestic politics of the United States in recent years, including the uncontrolled spread of the new crown epidemic, have made more people agree with the end of the "American century" or the "theory of American decline".
This is true in the United States and even more pronounced overseas. However, the decline or rise of a country is never linear. For example, Britain is an established empire, and before the so-called "American Century", there was a so-called "British Century". Although Britain later declined, it remained a pivotal world power until now.
The correctness or error of a national strategy or policy, and the occurrence of an accident at home and abroad, may change the course of history.
The United States still occupies the first place in the world in the economic, financial, military, or scientific and technological fields, and it is also strong in the fields of education and culture. So I think people have to analyze or evaluate the end of the "American century" within a big framework or a big premise. At the same time, it should also be noted that decline and rise are relatively dynamic concepts.
Of course, the claim of America's decline is not empty. Economically, the U.S. share of the global economy is now down nearly 50 percent compared to 1960. This is a huge change. Many economists predict that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States in 2028; this time has been and may be advanced due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Xinjing Think Tank: The withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan may not lead to the "Theory of American Decline", but this is indeed a defeat for the United States. What impact will this have on the United States?
Li Cheng: The 20-year war in Afghanistan ended in defeat, especially the hasty and irresponsible withdrawal of troops by the Biden administration, which is a military, strategic, diplomatic, political, moral and psychological blow to the United States. This is also the common view of many Americans today.
The United States is located in North America. The Pacific and Atlantic Oceans separate it from several other continents, while neighboring Canada and Mexico are friendlier, giving the United States a unique geographical environment. This geographical advantage gives Americans a natural sense of security.
However, in the past 20 years, unprecedented major events such as 9/11, including disasters such as the new crown epidemic and climate change in the past two years, have gradually eliminated The sense of superiority and security of the unique geographical environment of Americans. This psychological harm is enormous.
In December 2020, the streets of the United States under the epidemic.
Although the withdrawal from Afghanistan may be wise for the United States itself, the disaster in Afghanistan in the past month will deepen the sense of anxiety, loss, and crisis in American society about its own national strength, both from the perspective of the United States itself and from the perspective of other countries' observations. This can lead to two chain reactions.
One is that this mentality could lead the Biden administration to make mistakes in foreign affairs. In fact, Biden's handling of Afghanistan this time is one mistake after another.
Second, it will lead opposition forces, especially the right-wing militant forces of the Republican Party, to promote hawkish foreign policy. There is a high probability that hawkish politicians in the United States will accelerate their rise. In addition, the continued rise of hawkish politicians will also abandon the concept of America first and domestic supremacy that former President Trump believed in over the past few years. In fact, the biden administration's withdrawal also reflects a mentality of diplomacy serving domestic affairs.
The impact of the withdrawal of troops in Afghanistan on U.S. politics and popular psychology, driven by domestic political brawls, could mean more conflicts and new wars overseas, so we are now in such a very bad or dangerous situation. This is true of the United States, it is also true of its allies, and the world is in such a very disturbing situation.
9/11 was an important inflection point in American history
The 20th anniversary of 9/11 is approaching, a day that is extraordinary for the United States. How do you evaluate the geopolitical and global strategy adjustments of the United States over the past 20 years?
Li Cheng: "9/11" was an important inflection point in American history. 9/11 became a watershed or dividing line for Americans to divide historical memory. Even if the U.S. military's crushing defeat in Afghanistan is important, it is still less important than the dividing line of 9/11.
First, the war in Afghanistan was closely related to 9/11. 9/11 is not only a historical memory, but also a series of dramatic changes in thinking, cognition, behavior, and rules in the United States and even around the world.
To give an example, before 9/11, it was impossible for young people to imagine this situation in the United States to fly without looking at their identity cards and with almost no security checks.
After 9/11, the situation changed completely, and various inspections appeared. Moreover, many Americans are beginning to look at Arabs and Muslims with skepticism. This change in fear and perception is very obvious.
The more important change, of course, is a major adjustment in U.S. geopolitics and global strategy.
When George W. Bush first became president, America's main rivals were Iraq, Russia, and China.
The 9/11 incident completely changed President George W. Bush's strategic thinking and layout. The U.S. priority at the time became to deal with terrorist organizations. For more than a decade after 2001, counterterrorism became a top priority in U.S. security strategy.
9/11 also prompted the United States to create entirely new government agencies, such as the Department of National Security and the National Counterterrorism Center. The next two wars— the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq—were directly related to 9/11.
The war in Afghanistan launched by the United States has achieved certain results in the past 20 years. In the past 20 years, the United States has hardly been attacked by foreign terrorists.
In the nearly 20 years since 9/11, the U.S. security strategy has also fluctuated. Has the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan become a new sign of a renewed adjustment of its security strategy? What are the main opponents of the United States now?
Li Cheng: The answer should be obvious. Around 2018, the US strategic department once again changed the geopolitical and overall strategic framework, that is, it no longer regarded terrorist organizations and so-called "rogue states" as the focus of national security or diplomacy, but put competition with regional powers such as China and Russia in the first place.
Bagram Air Base in Parwan Province, Afghanistan, photographed on July 8, 2021. U.S. and NATO troops have all been withdrawn from the base. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
The withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan is undoubtedly an important part of this shift in strategic focus. Of course, there are also the domestic political, economic, and social factors in the United States that I mentioned earlier, including the consideration of "internal supremacy".
I think that whether it is Trump's Republican administration or Biden's Democratic government, if China is identified as an enemy, it is actually another mistake, another wrong enemy. In fact, the enemy of the United States should not be China, but the common enemy of mankind, such as the new crown virus, the challenge of climate change, the threat of nuclear proliferation, and terrorists at home and abroad.
But unfortunately, at the moment this voice, including my point of view, does not prevail in the United States. In the United States, fear and demonization of China continue unabated.
9/11 completely subverted the war mindset
Xinjing Think Tank: "9/11" affected not only the United States, but also the world. What are the important global impacts of 9/11 over the past 20 years?
Li Cheng: The impact of 9/11 was enormous and multifaceted. I would like to focus on three aspects.
First, 9/11 completely subverted the war mindset. In the past, wars mainly occurred between soldiers and soldiers, or between countries. 9/11 changed that pattern. In 1999, two retired military officers published "Beyond limit warfare", which talked about this asymmetrical war.
There is no difference between battlefield and non-battlefield in over-limit warfare, and it can be a confrontation between professional soldiers, or between civilian individuals or groups or against the state.
9/11, 19 Arabs, with 19 business-class tickets, inflicted catastrophic and significant damage on the superpower, the United States. This is a typical over-limit battle.
In recent years, the form of war has undergone new changes. The widespread use of robots and drones, especially the rapid advance of artificial intelligence, has once again changed the tide of war.
Therefore, some people say that the form of war, which used to be a war between man and man, later developed into a war between man and machine, and is now moving towards a war between machines and machines.
This unprecedented change in human history is not only in science fiction movies, but is beginning to appear in front of us, which is a very frightening prospect.
At present, many wars in the United States and some other countries overseas, there is a fairly high proportion of robots fighting. These are fundamental challenges to the rationality, wisdom and ethics of human society.
Second, the "9/11" incident has won China nearly 20 years of rapid development opportunities, and China's construction has a good external environment.
I would like to illustrate this development with some specific figures. In 2001, China ranked sixth in the world in terms of GDP, behind the United States, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom and France, when China's total economy was only 12% of that of the United States. Today, China's GDP is the second largest in the world, and China's total economic output has reached 71% of the United States (some studies believe it is 75%). China's GDP is expected to surpass that of the United States in a few years, which is a very significant shift in economic power.
The world economic map is changing rapidly, and China's growing strength is an important part of it. But without a peaceful environment, there would be none. So, this history shows how precious peace is.
Third, the label of terrorism has been abused or overpoliticated, and there is a clear double standard in the West in this regard.
The "clash of civilizations theory" proposed by Harvard scholar Huntington in the 1990s, although highly controversial, had a very great impact on US diplomacy.
This theory holds that post-Cold War international conflicts did not occur between countries, but between cultures, between Islamic civilization and Western civilization.
Huntington also made it clear that this clash of civilizations also includes the challenge of Confucian culture represented by China to Western civilization.
I disagree with the "clash of civilizations theory." This theory consciously or unconsciously expands understandable controversies and manageable contradictions between different political cultures into irreconcilable, endless hatred and confrontation.
Xinjing Think Tank: Why are the United States and some Western countries prejudiced against other civilizations?
Li Cheng: If Western countries, especially the United States, always hold the superiority of Western civilization, it will be difficult for these countries and their people to objectively view other cultures or civilizations, and accept and promote multiculturalism in a real sense, so as to seek dialogue and exchanges between cultures and promote the common progress of human society.
At the same time, the demographics of the United States are changing dramatically. At present, less than half of the people over the age of 18 in the United States are white. As a multi-ethnic country, there is no longer a single race in the United States that is overwhelming.
America's "white supremacy" doctrine fears demographic changes in its home country. This can also be said to be the internalization of the "clash of civilizations theory".
Biden has not eased the confrontation diplomatically
New Beijing Think Tank: Biden has been the president of the United States for more than half a year. How do you assess the Biden administration's foreign policy and governance performance?
Li Cheng: When Biden took office, he actually emphasized that the focus of governance was on US internal affairs, not diplomacy. He also argued that safeguarding and improving the interests of the middle class was a top priority, and that diplomacy should serve as a top priority.
The Biden administration has put forward four issues that are clear: controlling the COVID-19 pandemic, improving the economy, alleviating ethnic tensions in the country, and valuing climate change. I think these initiatives are all necessary.
However, Biden and his team have always been in the opposite direction in terms of specific operations. In international affairs, although they did change Trump's "America First" and unilateralism, strengthening relations with allies.
U.S. President Joe Biden. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
But at the same time, Biden is not diplomatically easing confrontation and conflict, but making enemies on all sides. He did not really use more resources and focus on the country, which can be described as a failure. In particular, relations with China have not only not improved, but have continued to deteriorate.
Xinjing Think Tank: Biden's support has dropped a lot. Recently, there has been a new wave of epidemic in the United States, is the Biden administration's prevention and control policy effective?
Li Cheng: In terms of epidemic prevention and control, the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) under the Biden administration has changed drastically. It is also for political purposes, a rush to succeed, and no effective avoidance or control of the current 4th wave of the epidemic in the United States.
Now an average of 150,000 people are infected and 1,000 people die in the United States every day, especially the rate of infection and severe illness among children is growing rapidly.
School has already started in some parts of the Country, and if the trend of infections continues to rise, you can imagine how much criticism the Biden administration will receive.
So, on this issue, not only did he not score, but he is currently losing points very badly.
In addition, inflation in the United States is now also severe. The Fed says inflation is temporary, but there is growing concern about how long this "temporary" will last. It has also exacerbated concerns about the economic outlook and the gap between rich and poor.
Biden's popularity is rapidly declining. Especially because of the war in Afghanistan and the COVID-19 pandemic, his approval rate is now lower than the non-recognition rate. In the future, the resignation of senior officials in the Biden administration should be said to be a high probability event, although it is not yet known who will resign first.
In the 2020 election, Trump lost to Biden, but the "Trump doctrine" is still there, and even Trump may make a comeback. At the top of the Republican Party, those who criticize Trump have been marginalized.
This also reflects the tearing of American politics and the intensification of contradictions. These will largely affect the U.S. midterm elections a year from now and the 2024 election, as well as U.S. foreign policy.
Biden's "China Strategy" has been slow to launch
New Beijing Think Tank: Some people believe that the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan is due to the Biden administration's preparation to focus the Attention of the United States on the West Coast of the Pacific and free up its hands to deal with China. Is this true?
Li Cheng: There is some truth to this statement. Of course, what is said orally is not necessarily done, and what is not said may be being done. Some senior U.S. officials and even presidents do not necessarily speak of deliberate strategies or policies, and some statements are often based on domestic political needs or excuses. Therefore, it is best not to draw conclusions about this issue easily.
Electronic screens taken on Aug. 16, 2021, show U.S. President Joe Biden speaking at the White House in Washington, D.C., on the situation in Afghanistan. Photo: Xinhua News Agency
Some details are worth noting, though. Biden was ready to launch a one-China strategy, but it could not be pushed out because it was very difficult and it would lose points if it was not done well.
Now, many local governments, civil society, and schools and research institutes in the United States, not to mention industry and Wall Street, want to continue to cooperate with China, not decouple.
Xinjing Think Tank: Will the US government unite with allies and enter a new "Cold War"?
Li Cheng: The United States wants to have good relations with its allies in order to formulate a consistent hard-line policy toward China, but many allies have reservations about this. Many countries attach more importance to economic and trade relations with China.
Therefore, the United States also has internal contradictions with these allies, not monolithic.
Moreover, for the United States and the Allies, a major challenge in China policy is a contradiction in willingness and ability. The biggest obstacle to building an anti-China camp is the U.S. allies, including France, Germany, and britain, as well as some countries in East and Southeast Asia, such as South Korea and Singapore, who do not agree with a return to the strategy of Cold War-style confrontation.
After the withdrawal of the United States in Afghanistan, the afghan problem is far from over, and the international community and various major powers have the need for cooperation.
Some who hold the idea of a zero-sum game between China and the United States believe that the fiasco of the United States in Afghanistan will bring benefits to China.
The United States is in trouble and civil strife, and the disadvantages to the United States are naturally far greater than the possible disadvantages to China. But a major blow to U.S. power, influence, and psychology can lead to a rise in hawkish power and make policymakers more aggressive, tough, eager to score, and even desperate in foreign affairs.
Therefore, a superpower that is torn internally, whose self-confidence is bruised, and who is eager to get out of the predicament, will pose new challenges to the world, including China. This is a new situation in the great changes in the world 20 years after "9/11", and it is also a complex issue worth pondering in political, academic and non-governmental circles.
|, chief researcher of Xinjing Think Tank Currie
Edit | Zhang Xiaoyuan
Proofreading | Chen Lin
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