On the one hand, Biden said that he would adhere to the one-China policy and then seemed to allow Taiwan's institutions in the United States to change their names; on the other hand, Suga Yoshihide resigned and was in chaos in Japan's political circles, but he also arrogantly said that Taiwan "has something" is that Japan "has a problem" and wants to carry out a 100,000-strong military exercise; moreover, the kmat election of the chairman of the Kuomintang is like a blue-green blood rush, with swords to bones and swords stained red. What is more interesting is that Chen Shui-bian and his former deputy Annette Lu also came to a good confrontation and laughed at the melon people. The author is reviewing the evolution of the situation this year and summing up the evolution of the ideological trend on the island, and feels that there are four kinds of "consensus" that are clearly on display, that is, "de jure Taiwan independence cannot be consensus-based," "the us military's aid to Taiwan is unreliable," "it is impossible to reach consensus on cross-strait decoupling," and "the military strength of armed reunification has already reached consensus." The reason why Chen Shui-bian suddenly said that the "four noes and one noes" was his own invention, not forced, is precisely to confirm these four "consensus."
The so-called four "consensusizations" mean that all kinds of people in Taiwan Island, such as blue, green, and white, see it this way, rather than just dark blue or just the view of the blue camp.
On September 12, Chen Shui-bian and his former deputy, Annette Lui, interviewed him on the radio. There is also a face-to-face spark. Ah Bian coldly asked Annette Lu why she wrote in the book: "On the eve of his inauguration in 2000 and 520, the United States asked Ah Bian through Bu Ruizhe, then chairman of the AIT Board of Directors, to talk about four differentities and one no." Annette Lu was stunned, first saying "I remember that you told me", and Ah Bian hit back and insisted, "I didn't.". Annette Lu did not dare to hold on hard, and said with a slow cheek, "Whether you said it doesn't matter, if you don't remember wrong, I remember wrong." However, Ah Bian was very concerned. He explained that on the eve of his inauguration in 200052, Bao Doug, then director of the Taipei office of the American Institute in Taiwan, asked him about the key points of his inauguration speech, and he told the other party that before I was elected, I had issued the "three noes": I would not declare independence, would not change the name of the country, and would not promote the incorporation of the two-state theory into the constitution. On 13 April of that year, Lee Teng-hui asked him to add "one no" and not to abolish the National Unification Program. Finally, Chen Shui-bian said that "there are no four noes and one no," including that there will be no declaration of independence, no change in the name of the country, no promotion of the incorporation of the two-state theory into the Constitution, no referendum on reunification and independence to change the status quo, and no issue of abolishing the national unification program. In a radio interview, Chen Shui-bian also said that "this statement has nothing to do with the United States and Blazer."
In fact, during his 8 years in office, Chen Shui-bian did not fulfill the promise of "four noes and one no" at one hundred percent, but also pushed "one country on one side" and engaged in "joining the United Nations referendum and binding the general election." He was called a "troublemaker" by then US President George W. Bush. However, Chen Shui-bian still openly admitted that changing the name of the country is "if it cannot be done, it cannot be done."
"If you can't do it, you can't do it," Chen Shui-bian's famous saying is actually something he often says to this day. And this time, his confrontation with Annette Lu is actually to ask for credit for himself. The author believes that from last year to the beginning of the year, Trump and Pompeo have unscrupulously enhanced US-Taiwan relations and sent the US ambassador to the United Nations to visit Taiwan before stepping down; after that, Biden's "three musketeers" also instructed US congressmen to take a US military plane to land at Songshan Airport, and the Tsai Ing-wen administration has created a turbid wave of anti-China and independence on the island. Today, the US military has defeated Afghanistan, triggering the panic of "Afghanistan today, Taiwan tomorrow", and Chen Shui-bian's boasts about Taiwan's blue, green, and white people cannot be questioned. Moreover, by extension, the "abandonment of Taiwan theory" is rampant, and "the United States is unreliable" has also become a consensus. Even Tsai Ing-wen did not dare to say that Biden was reliable, especially the old Biden took a stance on Beijing.
"Cross-strait decoupling cannot be consensus", which is the last thing Tsai Ing-wen wants to see, but it is also something she has to admit. In the five years since Tsai Ing-wen came on the court, she has been bent on promoting a comprehensive decoupling of the two sides of the strait, especially the decoupling of the economic chain. She sees the disruption of cross-strait foot traffic caused by the COVID-19 pandemic as an opportunity. However, in 2019, Taiwan's exports to the mainland increased by 16%, accounting for a historical peak of 43% of Taiwan's overall exports, with a surplus of $140.5 billion, contributing 21% of Taiwan's total GDP.
In the first five months of 2021, according to the statistics of Taiwan's customs department, Taiwan's top 5 export markets, in order of Chinese mainland and Hong Kong, accounting for 41.9%); ASEAN 10 countries, 15.8%: the United States, 14.5%; Europe, 9.2%; and Japan, 6.4%. The biggest export growth was Chinese mainland and Hong Kong. It is very clear that the mainland market is the most important source of living water for Taiwan's economic development, and if Tsai Ing-wen "hard decouples," she can only stifle Taiwan's economy and lead to the DPP stepping down.
The last consensus is that "the military strength of the armed forces is already available," which can be seen from the latest PLA military strength reports of the Taiwan military and the US military. They all admit that the PLA's combat strength has surpassed that of the west of the first island chain; the PLA's ability to project troops is increasing day by day, in fact, they have not yet calculated the mainland's civilian transportation capacity; and secondly, the PLA's missiles and aircraft carriers have the ability to resist the intervention of the US military.
Some people say that the report of the Taiwan military and the US military is aimed at increasing military spending. Whatever his aim, the fact is that the mainland is fully capable of reunifying Taiwan. Can the renaming of Taiwan's institutions in the United States be able to resist the iron will of reunification?