What is more dangerous than a black swan? It's a grey rhinoceros! | weekends of study

About the Author

Michele Wucker, Global Thought Leader, winner of the 2007 Guggenheim Scholar Award, and "Young Leader" of the World Economic Forum in 2009, has held several positions as director of the New York-based Institute for International Policy Studies, deputy director of the Chicago Congressional Center for Global Affairs Studies, and director of the Latin American office of the International Financial Review. He has written many articles for the New York Times, the Washington Post, International Policy and other media.

Editor's recommendation

What is more dangerous than a black swan? It's a grey rhinoceros! Dangers don't always come from sudden disasters or too small problems, but more because you have been blind for a long time, and this book allows you to re-examine your surroundings and see everything that has been ignored.

Grey Rhino is a complement and profound extension of Taleb's Black Swan theory, more in line with the current era of chaos and uncertainty. Smog, climate warming, drinking water shortages, financial crises and the enormous disruptive forces of technological innovation... These are grey rhino events that are relevant to each of us, and there are signs before the crisis erupts, and why do we tend to ignore these signals? How to overcome prejudice, inertia and fluke psychology, and effectively identify and decisively deal with potential high-probability crises? Grey Rhino gives us a lot of useful advice.

If the black swan theory is hopeless, the grey rhino theory can show us that we have the power to solve crises. Disaster and black swans have entered our vocabulary sequence, and soon grey rhinoceros will become one of our common vocabulary.

Wonderful book reviews

Why do people often ignore some high-probability and high-impact events, resulting in serious consequences? Through a large number of vivid and interesting macro and micro cases, Gray Rhino analyzes people's cognitive patterns and coping patterns, showing some new insights in behavioral economics, providing us with a new perspective for identifying crises and responding to crises. ——Qian Yingyi, Dean of the School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University

Sudden accidents can haunt us, but what is really frustrating is that some of them are problems that we know are dangerous, because of inertia, procrastination, institutional neglect, intentional or unintentional avoidance, slowly accumulating, and finally becoming an unmanageable crisis. Grey Rhinos teaches us that what should come is always coming, unless you establish preventive mechanisms and strict habits in the first place.

——Qin Shuo, Founder of China Commercial Civilization Research Center and Qin Shuo Circle of Friends

The grey rhinoceros is a high-probability crisis that is constantly playing out in all areas of society. Crises in finance, more like grey rhinos than black swans, were already showing signs before the outbreak but were ignored. How to avoid the recurrence of similar incidents, Grey Rhino is especially important for entrepreneurs, managers, and policymakers.

——Yao Yudong, chief economist of Dacheng Fund and former director of the Financial Research Institute of Chinese Min bank

The "Black Swan" challenges our imagination and prediction, while the "Grey Rhino" challenges our resilience and action. In these rapidly changing times, a large herd of obvious gray rhinos is getting closer and closer to us with heavy steps. How to cope and avoid danger, we must draw wisdom from the art of Grey Rhinoceros.

——Huang Zhen, President of China Internet Finance Innovation Research Institute, Director of Institute of Financial Law of Central University of Finance and Economics, and Founder of Internet Finance Thousand Club

Grey Rhinoceros is a book that is crucial to the repositioning of crisis management and policymaking, and is therefore a very important book for both businesses and countries.

— Chairman of the Eurasian Group, Ian Bremer

If the black swan theory is hopeless, the grey rhino theory can show us that we have the power to solve crises. In this original work, Michelle Walker taught me that when a crisis comes, it's important to keep your head clear and make the right decisions.

—Eye-opener author, Norena Hertz

More important than the black swan event is the grey rhino event: a high-probability, high-impact crisis event that we failed to prevent. This book gives us a lot of useful advice on how to act in time to avoid tragedy.

—Unilever CEO Paul Polman

Politicians, CEOs, and other leaders often deliberately turn a blind eye to looming and foreseeable crises. In this highly original and enlightening book, Michelle Walker delves into why they did this and tells us how we can change that. The book is full of real examples from politics, economy and society, and should be a must-read for those in power.

—Pulitzer Prize winner Riaqat Ahmed

Michelle Walker was right. Many times, we can see crises coming to us: climate change, terrorism, economic crises. But we didn't do anything. This valuable work can tell us why this is the case. This work is a must-read for leaders of all organizations, whether government agencies or private institutions, because we are ushering in a challenging era. ”

—Mahbubani Mahbubaya, Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore

There is an urgent need for the world to change the paradigm of crisis management. This work is a good solution to common crises of our own making, little by little, or decided to ignore them altogether. By the time you see your rhinoceros coming to you, it's already too late. Disaster and black swans have entered our vocabulary sequence. Soon, the grey rhinoceros will also become one of our common words.

—Ivan Michel-Kyrgon, director of the Wharton Center for Risk Control

Why do we need a book to tell ourselves to watch out for and guard against obvious, high-probability crisis events? For we will resolutely avoid talking about and denying the crisis events before us. The book Grey Rhino tells us why this is the case and provides us with detailed and concrete ways to deal with crises that could change the world.

—Anne-Marie Slaughter, President of the New America Foundation

Michelle Walker takes a fresh look at the current social crisis. These crises are imminent and unending, but unfortunately we have turned a blind eye to them. As a politician, if he is silent, or if he just waits for the next "as expected" event, and does not actively solve these crises that have already been put before us, then he cannot be regarded as a conscientious politician.

—Max Bazeman, professor at Harvard Business School and deputy director of the Center for Public Leadership

As Michelle Walker warned: The crux of the matter is not how likely a crisis is, but how close we are to the point at which it will occur. This work is very suitable for the characteristics of the current era. In this day and age, we face a variety of obvious existential crises. This book reminds us that denying the existence of a problem is an act of avoiding medical treatment, and it is harmful and unhelpful. At the same time, the book provides us with concrete ways to eliminate the crisis: crisis and opportunity are either mutually causal or two sides of the same coin. Therefore, we must find the hidden opportunities in the crisis and make full use of them in order to achieve the "Jedi Strikes Back."

—Mira Kanda, author of Planet India

Michelle Walker presents everything we deliberately ignore in plain language and teaches us how to look for opportunities in crisis events. The big benefit of this book is: from the realm of personal life to the realm of the global economy, rethinking and thinking about our lives.

— Parag Kohanna, author of Connecting Force Maps and How to Run the World

The book Grey Rhino points out the Achilles heels of organizations, companies, and nations, and teaches us ways to overcome them: Business leaders and policy makers often make mistakes because they are imprisoned and clinging to their shortcomings, so only by speaking widely and following the flow of advice can we avoid making mistakes again and again. The insights in the book are new and distinctive, and will surely become a must-read for global policy makers and thought leaders.

—William Saito, CEO of Intec Consulting and author of Team

Digest: What is your grey rhinoceros crisis

In this day and age, businesses, organizations, government agencies, and various industry sectors face a number of obvious, high-probability dangers, some of which can be devastating to those who are unprepared. Each of us faces at least one grey rhinoceros crisis, sometimes even more: in your personal and family life, in the organization or business you work for. As members of society and as inhabitants of the world, the challenges we face — both individually and collectively — are to detect and successfully avoid dangers, which are highly likely to occur, very obvious, destructive — are obvious, imminent dangers, but at the same time they are easily overlooked.

The black swan theory draws attention to unexpected events and makes people aware of the possibilities of their occurrence. Behind every black swan event lurks a huge grey rhinoceros crisis. You might think that we don't need to pay attention to the obvious crisis events, or that we are already dealing with these obvious crises. However, the opposite is true. We rarely pay attention to the events that can be expected. Sometimes, the more serious the Grey Rhinoceros crisis, the harder it is for us to see its presence and to escape its offensive route.

Once you know what grey rhinoceros crises are all about, you'll find that they're everywhere. Enron incident, Kodak incident, BlackBerry incident, Samsung mobile phone explosion crisis... The list of companies that failed to respond to the Grey Rhinoceros crisis in a timely manner is endless.

We don't know when or how these grey rhinoceros crises will appear before us, but what we do know for sure is that it would be unwise to ignore their existence. Looking back at history, digital cameras have caused a huge impact on traditional camera technology, and the Internet and Youku video have caused a huge impact on TV networks and traditional media. So, will today's rapid development of 3D printing technology have a huge impact on some manufacturing industries? How should we respond to the huge changes in the employment structure brought about by artificial intelligence? Faced with a crisis of social and political stability brought about by growing income distribution disparities, and the need for human resources in the future, how can a leader help his organization improve the well-being of all its members so that the wealth of a dizzying minority does not collapse under its own pressures? How can an emerging megacity properly address the enormous pressures of a rapidly growing population on urban infrastructure and living resources? How can an aging city address its demographic changes, upgrade its urban infrastructure – and how can other cities stop young people from leaving? What impact will the rise of the sharing economy have on traditional industries? How can relevant companies cope with the new situation and stand out from the industry? How can Japan, Europe, and the United States emerge from their economic and political woes and the social impact of an aging population? How can city leaders and residents cope with growing scarcity of resources, such as the scarcity of drinking water, food and vital minerals, and the disastrous impact of resource scarcity on supply chains, social and political stability, and even their own survival? When floods occur every 10,000 years to every 100 years, and Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy, Ferins and Hayes hit the relevant coasts on a regular basis, how should those coastal residents cope with the impact of rising sea levels?

Moreover, how should we respond to the grey rhinoceros crisis – a problem lurking beneath our decision-making and political institutions. The existence of these problems leaves us powerless and unprepared for other very obvious and significant dangers. How should companies, families and individuals respond to major crises that seriously jeopardize their survival?

When you learn to identify the stages of a crisis, you can clearly see the pitfalls and opportunities in each phase of the apparent crisis: transforming denial into acceptance of the existence of the crisis, turning procrastination into actively developing action plans, avoiding the panic phase, entering the action phase as soon as possible, and if unfortunately hit hard by the disaster, you can also regroup and restore the glory. With this in mind, I would like to present the Grey Rhino Safari Strategy to you here: a series of principles for dealing with six stages of future, obvious, high-probability and high-impact crisis events. In other words, how to dodge the attack of the grey rhinoceros crisis.

(1) Acknowledging the existence of a crisis

Just as black swan theory can help us focus on low-probability crisis events, grey rhino theory can also help us focus on high-probability, obvious crisis events. Such incidents are taken for granted, or pushed aside and ignored, or even crisis events that we deliberately ignore. The result of this is to pay ourselves a heavy price. Acknowledging the existence of a grey rhinoceros crisis event directly can not only help us avoid its attacks, but also help us turn crisis events into opportunities. Everyone saw the elephant in the room, the danger that everyone avoided talking about, but everyone was reluctant to mention it because it would be disturbing to mention it. The Grey Rhinoceros Crisis is similar to the elephant in this room, but more dangerous than it is.

The first phase of dealing with the Grey Rhino Crisis event – the stage of resistance denial – is most easily confused with the black swan theory. To think of a high-probability grey rhinoceros crisis event as a low-probability black swan crisis event is simply a self-protection mechanism that people have built for themselves to avoid acknowledging disturbing realities. You can dispute the definition of "high probability" and when it occurs. It's important not to dwell too much on its details. If something extremely bad is likely to happen, it is necessary and worthwhile to start dealing with it now.

If we can acknowledge the existence of a grey rhinoceros crisis event as soon as possible, then we can quickly identify the factors that hinder our understanding of its existence. Because our mental structure and our social mechanisms push us to avoid what we don't want to see, we cling to less reliable predictions and ignore the events that are highly likely to happen. For answers we don't want to know, we don't ask questions. In our organizations, in our families, in our governments, and in our minds, there is a concept of incivility, incivility, and incivility. The theories elaborated in chapters TWO and III of this book can help us to deeply understand our complex relationship with prediction and our instinctual impulses in the face of emotions such as denial and resistance and deliberate neglect, and ultimately achieve the purpose of acknowledging the existence of danger.

Be brave enough to question the statements of suspicious people, don't be afraid to make mistakes, and have the courage to make mistakes. Don't think that everything will naturally get better just because those in power say it's okay; they're profitable in the status quo, so they resist anything that might destroy it. Be sure to constantly look for and ask tough questions. Be sure to guard against group thinking at all times and resolutely resist its influence. When making major decisions in your organization, be sure to involve people who hold different views and opinions, and that they are treated with a welcoming and accepting attitude. As we saw in the experiments of Charlebus and Simmons, when you are told that there is an ape there, you will easily see it. By the same token, when you start looking for a Grey Rhinoceros crisis event, you're likely to see it.

(2) Define the nature of the grey rhinoceros crisis event

Of course, once we see the Grey Rhinoceros crisis event, it is likely to have come to us. It is impossible to deal with all crises at once. At this point, we must define the nature of each crisis, prioritize the events, and express it in an appropriate way, so as to attract action on it by those who have the capacity and the right to deal with it.

Your characterization and description of the problem directly determines whether you can get people to act and whether your response will ultimately work. Is it the trouble of repairing the 57 cent ignition switch, or is it more troublesome and more expensive to replace this switch? Or rather, if the switch isn't repaired, it will result in billions of dollars in lost lives and property, and the entire company will be exposed to enormous risks. Which is preferable to lose 30% of investments now and 75% of lost investments in the near future?

When a company's operating profits fall, it has more reasons to address problems that it didn't think were worth solving when it was booming. For decades, legendary motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson Locomotive Works has ignored its production inefficiencies and severe absenteeism. The atmosphere in the Harley-Davidson Locomotive Works production hall is unique, its workers are proud to do things their way, and its corporate culture is highly consistent with its maverick brand style. "Before the Great Depression, harley-Davidson locomotives never had to think about time." Adam Davidson said in a feature for The New York Times. But in 2009, when people didn't have extra money to buy luxury goods like Harley Locomotives, harley-Davidson Locomotive Works had to redefine its production inefficiencies: what had previously been considered inefficient as a characteristic of its brand identity now recognized as a major flaw that threatened the survival of the business. This shift in perception has prompted the company to make a number of major adjustments, such as painful layoffs and pay freezes. At the same time, the company began to look for ways and means to improve production efficiency throughout the production process. By adjusting the angle of the tiny plastic teeth on a part, the company saved 12 seconds in production per locomotive. The change, while seemingly minor, resulted in an increase in the company's production of 2,200 locomotives per year and an increase of several million dollars in annual revenue. Harley-Davidson Locomotive Works handled the crisis in a timely manner. But if the management of the Harley-Davidson locomotive factory had realized earlier that the inefficiencies in production had caused the company a huge loss, and realized that the problem would lead to the company being squeezed out by other companies in the same industry, the company would not have reached the point where it was one step away from bankruptcy.

Finding an emotional resonance that makes dangerous events more vivid and vivid can attract people's attention. When the city of Melbourne, Australia, built a tram line in the city, it urgently needed a way for people to pay attention to the trams that came from the mercedes, especially those aged 18 to 30, because they would choose to walk more often and play with their mobile phones while walking. The final solution was to adopt a large advertisement: a set of yellow zebra crossings and a rhino playing skateboarding. At the same time, a video is played: a large group of rhinos on the skateboard, gliding along the track of the tram, and looking very enjoyable, especially one of the rhinos, with a malicious smile in his eyes, kicks its big foot on the ground and accelerates forward fiercely. "The weight of a tram is equivalent to the weight of 30 rhinos." One man said. At this moment, an unfortunate boy was looking up with headphones on when he saw a tram speeding toward him. Rhino is not only the mascot of the event, but also has a Twitter user targeting (@bewaretherhino) and its own Facebook address.

(3) Do not stand still

If you don't have the ability to make the major changes necessary, then you should think about what other smaller initiatives are feasible and how these small initiatives can match the actions of others. If you have to delay action, then you also have to procrastinate strategically and prepare for the last moment during the delay.

When we are in a happy mood or sad and depressed, intuition and reason are likely to deceive us. Not only that, but when we stand still, intuition and reason deceive us. If possible, be sure to make a plan ahead of time and make the most of it. Think about emergency measures that people in areas ravaged by hurricanes and tornadoes learned in elementary school. In addition, it is better to develop an automatic trigger mechanism that can force yourself to act in time when fear affects judgment.

People are always using precautions, even if they're not sure if they're in danger: even though we haven't had a car accident, our houses haven't been damaged, or we haven't had a crisis of illness, or we've contracted the flu, we've fastened our seat belts while driving, insured our fixed assets, turned down cheeseburgers instead of vegetable salads, given ourselves flu shots, been actively exercising, etc.

(4) Don't waste the crisis

Sometimes, being hit by disasters is inevitable. Sometimes, the biggest problem we think of is not the real problem. When we encounter new things that disruptive new technologies bring us, which is what we should do to save our traditional industries and put them to an end as soon as possible? Sometimes, the best time to prevent future crises is precisely after a disaster, when people are terrified of the consequences of future crises. If you are unfortunate enough to be hit by a disaster, you need to immediately pick yourself up and see from which direction the future Grey Rhinoceros crisis will strike. Disasters can also create unexpected opportunities.

Chicagoans often talk about an unexpected urban renaissance that occurred after the Fire of October 8, 1871. The fire burned more than three-quarters of the entire city to ashes, killed 300 people in the fire, collapsed 180,000 buildings, and left 100,000 people homeless, and the overall damage caused by the fire has now exceeded $4 billion. Catherine O'Reilly and her cows have been charged and believed to be responsible for the fire. However, it was later discovered that it was just a made-up story. When the fire began to burn, Catherine O'Reilly was lying in bed asleep while her cow ran out, missing her. But to compensate for the accusations and slanders that Catherine O'Reilly and her cows suffered because of the fire, I would like to believe in the plot reversal caused by the fire.

The fire unexpectedly spawned a boom in the construction industry, replacing traditional wooden houses with brick and stone houses. Many of the stone and brick houses built at that time still stand in the city today. Creating a new block layout with lots of alleys – the idea was an innovation and supported by a lot of people because it was able to keep the garbage outside the main street. My sensitive nostrils must have appreciated such innovations after 23 years of suffering from New York life. Millions of tons of rubble and rubble from the fire were dumped into the waters on the east side of Lake Michigan, resulting in the formation of the now beautiful park. Many historians believe the fire prompted the city to relocate the 1893 Columbia World Products Exposition to Chicago. As the tech incubator named in 1871 to commemorate the event put it: "The story of the 1871 Chicago Fire is about more than just the fires themselves. The story is more about what happened after the fire: a moment of great significance— where the world's most intelligent engineers, architects, and inventors all gather to build a new city. Their inventions and creations—from their passion and true wisdom—have shaped not only Chicago, but the entire modern world. ”

In fact, the fire was clearly a foreseeable event. The unusually dry summer and early autumn put the city's wooden houses and bridges at high risk of flammability. "There was no rain for three consecutive weeks. In such weather, everything in the city becomes flammable. Just a little bit of Mars can cause uncontrollable fires, and the fires can quickly spread from one end of the city to the other. Shortly before that fateful night, the Chicago Tribune reported it. The city fire department had also been required to build more hydrants, large main water pipes, recruit more firefighters, set up two fire boats on the river, and inspect the firefighting facilities in various buildings to ensure that they were in good condition. But all the prayers and efforts didn't work, and the city was still destroyed by the fire.

(5) Stand in the downwind

The best leaders act when danger is not even close. We are unlikely to act when we see a gray rhinoceros crisis event signaling it, especially if it is an easily resolvable one. We are likely to act when the cost of coping is already high and the likelihood of success is slim – or even after a disaster, as chicago was.

Standing in the downwind requires two strategies. First, eyes fixed tightly into the distance. This way, you can accurately predict how the seemingly distant danger is getting closer and closer. Second, this is the hardest thing to do – to address the grey rhinoceros crisis, the systemic problems that prevent us from making decisions and acting in a timely manner: decision-making processes that lead to groupthink and blind us; conservative systems that prevent policymakers and business leaders from making the right decisions and taking the right actions; and our inefficient way of allocating resources, which hurts the people in the short term, but may bring greater benefits in the long run.

Sometimes, we need to persuade others to agree to our measures of change. But when the danger is only far away, not near, it is almost impossible to persuade others to agree with our changes. In this case, we need to make a series of plans in advance. That way, when the danger does come, we can act step by step.

(6) Become the person who discovers the gray rhinoceros crisis and becomes the person who controls the gray rhino crisis

To avoid danger, the first thing to do is to find danger. One person discovers a clear danger, a danger that is ignored by others. He stepped forward and drew attention. The ability to spot rhinos in the wild is the result of long-term training. Similarly, discovering the Grey Rhinoceros Crisis is an ability that requires training.

Individuals can play a vital role in identifying grey rhinoceros crises, reminding others to prevent and develop solutions, and translating plans into action. One may recognize the need to prevent crises. However, the hardest part is action. The hardest thing is to figure out what to do to resolve the crisis.

The people who can control the rhinoceros crisis are those who are willing to go against the majority, who are willing to overthrow the wrong system, who are willing to inspire others to act together. They're the ones who look a little crazy. It takes a lot of courage to stand up and sacrifice oneself to avoid disaster, whether as part of a company, or as a resident of the world, in a country, in a community, or as an independent individual. This is the truth that I have seen again and again when I was doing research for this book. So, even though everyone is telling me that human nature is so deeply ingrained that people can't detect obvious dangers and prevent people from acting in time to avoid crises, I insisted on writing this book because there is such a truth that has been guiding me.

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