Entering 2024, what kind of changes will the domestic and international situation usher in? During this period, we need to pay close attention to the situation of the three elections: Will Lai Qingde officially become a "gray rhinoceros"? What impact will Putin's independent candidacy have on Sino-Russian relations? What bottom line is the United States likely to break through?
Looking back on 2023, the international situation is turbulent, but China-Russia relations have reached a new level, and China-US relations are also reining in time in a rapid decline.
In the new year, what kind of changes will China's domestic and international situation usher in? To answer this question, we might as well look for the answer from the three elections this year.
The first thing we need to pay attention to is the upcoming elections in Taiwan on January 13.
Regarding the election situation on the island, we have talked a lot before, according to the latest poll data on the island, "Lai Xiaopei" is still in the leading position, and "Hou Kangpei" after a short period of catching up, now it has fallen, the gap between the two has come to about 10%, and the "Ke Yingpei" poll support rate has been in the early 20%, basically no chance to win.
Under such circumstances, the situation we have to face is: If Lai Ching-te really becomes the new leader of the Taiwan region, what impact will it have on cross-strait relations and the situation in the Taiwan Strait?
Lai Ching-te is an out-and-out "Taiwan independence" element, and he himself often calls himself a "pragmatic 'Taiwan independence' worker." This is also unique among previous candidates in the Taiwan region.
The mainland's characterization of Lai Qingde once called him a "gray rhinoceros", and the so-called gray rhinoceros refers to the most common and most prone crisis, that is, Lai Qingde is a person who will inevitably bring danger.
Now there is an argument on the Internet that letting Lai Qingde come to power may be a "good thing" because he will strengthen the mainland's determination to take over Taiwan by force.
However, this is not in line with China's current overall strategy, and during this year's meeting in San Francisco, the Chinese side also made it clear to Biden that China has not formulated a so-called "timetable for taking over Taiwan by force", but hopes to achieve cross-strait reunification in a peaceful way.
If Lai Qingde wins, it will inevitably disrupt the mainland's strategic deployment, and will not only destroy the environment for peaceful cross-strait exchanges, but may also have an impact on the stable Sino-US relations.
Therefore, although we hope for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, we must also be prepared for such a situation, and if Lai Ching-te comes to power, how the mainland will deal with the new Taiwan government, how to counteract, and how to balance will become the focus of work in the new year.
Secondly, the Russian elections to be held in March will also have an important impact on China.
A few days ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election as an independent candidate, which has also sparked heated discussions.
There are different opinions about the reasons why Putin made such a choice, and at present, there are three more credible theories.
First, Putin does have the idea of retiring, and choosing to run independently can make way for others in the United Russia party, that is, there is the meaning of choosing a successor, after all, Putin is 71 years old, and if he becomes president for another term, he will already be 77 years old, and if he is considered for re-election, he can even reach the age of 83, and he can indeed consider retiring.
Second, it is Putin's desire to reduce partisan influence on himself. Jumping out of the partisan framework, Putin not only makes room for newcomers, but also gains more support with his high personal prestige.
Third, it is Putin who has plans to integrate the Russian party. At present, the external situation in Russia is not optimistic, and Putin's use of the Russian election to consolidate the parties and merge the United Russia party and the Just Russia party will help further strengthen cohesion and pave the way for future heirs.
As far as China is concerned, the outcome of the Russian election also has a direct impact on the development of Sino-Russian relations.
China-Russia relations have been on the rise in recent years, and the cooperation between the two sides in all fields and without boundaries has not only benefited the people of the two countries, but has also become an example of international bilateral cooperation.
If Putin is re-elected, it will further stabilize Sino-Russian relations, but from a longer-term perspective, we need to pay more attention to the new generation of Russians and where they will take Russia.
Finally, it is time for the 2024 annual drama, the US election in November.
In a previous program about Trump's disqualification from the primary, we talked about the Democrats' fierce offensive against Trump, which may lead to Trump's early exit, but even if the Democrats eliminate Trump, it does not mean victory, and may even directly impact the existing political system in the United States.
Why?
Because the "separation of powers" system of the U.S. Constitution is the foundation of the federal government, in which Congress holds the legislative power, the president holds the executive power, and the Supreme Court holds the judicial power, but now in order to deal with Trump, the Democratic Party has broken the boundaries and frequently attacked Trump through the judicial system.
When the criminal case against Trump was filed before, it had already caused a lot of controversy, but fortunately, there was no big mess in the end, but the matter of sending the former president to prison still made many people gasp.
Now that states are going to disqualify Trump from the primary election for "insurgency," is this "judicial interference in the election"? If successful, what impact will it have on the "separation of powers" system in the United States?
When the time comes, the Republican Party will definitely launch a crazy counterattack, not only Biden may face impeachment, but the Republican Party also has people in the state courts and even the Supreme Court, and it is not clear what will happen.
Moreover, the results of the US election will not only affect the US strategy toward China, but are also likely to directly change the trend of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
It is foreseeable that the U.S. election at the end of 2024 will definitely leave a strong mark on the history of the United States and even the world.