Su Shi is crazy in love with lychees, "eating 300 lychees a day, and not hesitating to be a Lingnan person", which is his reluctance to love it and his affection.
Lychee, the shape of the fruit is round and full, the flesh is crystal clear, the taste is sweet and delicious, the lips and teeth are fragrant, and the aftertaste is endless.
Because of its high yield, good quality and low sales price, it is deeply loved by the majority of consumers and is a popular national fruit.
Over the past 24 years, lychees have been threatened by natural disasters, and it is generally felt that the price has risen sharply, but in fact, the price has been falling unstoppably, and it has fallen to a situation where no one buys it at a high price.
In order to grasp the market development trend of lychee and formulate a reasonable purchase and sales strategy, it is necessary to understand the reasons for production reduction, price situation and price decline.
Reasons for the reduction in production
The decrease in lychee yield is the result of a series of unfavorable meteorological factors, such as warm winter weather, cold spring and continuous rainfall.
Bad spring weather. The cold weather refers to the sudden cooling and cold weather that restricts the growth and development of lychee trees in the process of gradually increasing temperature.
The harm of sudden cooling is mainly reflected in the failure of flower buds to develop and bloom normally, the flowering period is prolonged, and the pollination and seed setting rate are reduced, resulting in a large area of inferior fruits, deformed fruits and fruit drops.
Persistent rainfall. In April, widespread and persistent rainfall in the southern region made the growth of lychee plants and fruit development worse.
On the one hand, the continuous rainfall caused the moisture content of early-maturing varieties to increase, and the taste and quality of the fruits were damaged, and some fruits would rot as a result. On the other hand, the lack of light caused the poor development of mid-to-late ripening lychee varieties.
Warm winter weather. Lychee is a subtropical fruit that likes light and heat, but in November, it needs a relatively low temperature environment to reserve nutrients for the next year's germination and flowering.
The temperature is too high, the plant growth is not reduced, and the nutrients in the field are continuously consumed, and the 23rd year is a warm winter, and the temperature in the south is high, which hinders the flowering.
Price dynamics
The market development of lychee shows a trend of opening high and going low, and the high price expectation of the first time on the market is significantly different from the reality of falling prices of lychee, and it may become the most ruthless fruit in the face in 24 years.
High price expectations. According to the forecast of relevant domestic institutions, the estimated output of lychee is 1.78 million tons, a decrease of more than 45% compared with 23 years, and the yield reduction of some varieties can reach 7-8%.
Due to the impact of the sharp reduction in production, the general market view is that the price of lychee can continue to run at a high level, and the actual price is the same as predicted, and the price of lychee can be sold for 50-70 yuan when it is just listed.
Falling prices are realistic. The high price of lychee has not been sustained, and it has become a passing cloud, and the reality of falling prices has gradually enveloped the lychee consumer market.
In particular, in recent days, the price of some lychee varieties, such as Feizixiao, has fallen to more than ten or twenty yuan, which is different from the market that has just been listed.
It should be noted that the pricing of lychees varies with varieties and quality, and high-quality and scarce lychee varieties can be sold at a high price, and the specific pricing fluctuates flexibly with the purchase and sales situation.
In the process of purchasing, don't just be greedy for cheap and deceived by merchants with bad results, but also keep your eyes open when buying online, and beware of becoming a lamb to the slaughter of merchants.
The reason for the price drop
Although the production of lychee has decreased significantly, the sales price has been unstoppable, which is not only related to the positioning of lychee products, but also related to the mentality of consumer groups, and more related to the competition of similar fruits.
The overall supply of lychees has increased. With the orderly listing of various types of lychees, the supply capacity has been improved, and the contradiction between supply and demand has been effectively alleviated.
Non-rigid properties of lychee. Fruits are different from water and grains, they are not rigid products, consumers are particularly selective in their purchases, and the number of substitutes is complex.
If we only look at the output, there is no doubt that the production of lychees has been reduced and the supply is in short supply, but the high price of lychees has led to a decrease in consumer acceptance, reduced consumption desire, and delayed consumer demand has become an inevitable result.
Civilian fruit positioning of lychee. In the general perception of consumers, lychee is an ordinary civilian fruit, everyone can afford to consume, more than 10 yuan a pound is considered a sky-high price, more than 5 yuan a pound should be cautious consumption.
When high-priced lychees enter the daily consumption market, consumers are resistant and unwilling to buy at high prices.
Competing fruits of the same kind are abundant. The mainland is a vast region, with great differences in climate between different regions, and a high number of fruit categories on the market at the same time, such as watermelon, cherry and durian, which are all highly competitive fruit categories.
This kind of popular fruit entered the market at the same time as lychee, forming a competitive relationship with lychee, and the sales price is more attractive, squeezing out the consumer group that originally belonged to lychee, resulting in a significant decrease in the sales of lychee.
Pricing shocks on online platforms. Domestic Internet platforms have emerged in an endless stream, with some business entities selling bad results at low prices, and some platforms and traders providing cash subsidies to boost sales.
Through the implementation of various marketing strategies, consumers' online purchases have increased, which has had an impact on the price system of offline operations, and offline operators can only choose to reduce prices to promote sales increase and cater to consumers.
Finally, there is no doubt that with the large-scale listing of other categories of fruits, the market of lychees in the cruel consumer market is not optimistic, and it may fall into a falling price market again.
Because, the price of lychee depends on the demand of consumers, when the price rises to the point that consumers cannot afford to buy, the output is reduced, and the supply is short, they can only be sold at a reduced price, and the high-priced bubble will naturally burst.