How much imagination can "a red date" hold up in the capital market?
In 2021, Haoxiangyou formulated the medium and long-term strategic goal of "10 billion market value, 10 billion revenue, and 100-year brand", hoping to promote the company's sustainable and rapid development through the combination of endogenous growth and epitaxial expansion, first reach 10 billion market value, and then 10 billion revenue, and finally build Haoxiangyou into a century-old brand.
However, more than two years have passed, and the total market value of May 13 is still around 3 billion yuan, which is a lot lower than the about 4 billion yuan at the end of 2021. In February this year, its stock price even fell to a new low in more than ten years since its listing, and at that time, an investor asked the secretary of the board of directors: Is the company's 10 billion strategy still in plan? But the latter did not respond positively.
Behind the fluctuation of stock prices, in addition to the factors of the capital market, it is also related to the unfavorable development of the enterprise itself. In 2023, among the 21 companies in the A-share snack food sector, I think you are the only one that is still in a loss-making state.
The loss of financial data is not a portrayal of all the work of this "first stock of red dates".
In the past 2023, I would like you to start a hyperbolic development strategy, aiming at the first curve of gift business, and ensuring the performance of advantageous channels such as monopoly and shelf e-commerce by enriching the product matrix. At the same time, it makes efforts to build a matrix of leisure and health foods such as red pie, red dates and sesame, and accelerates the development of interest e-commerce, offline supermarkets, convenience stores, snacks, circulation and other channels.
Why not make money
Known as the "first stock of red dates", Haoxiangyou was founded in 1992 and listed in 2011, and last year it opened a hyperbolic development strategy, achieving annual revenue of 1.728 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -52 million yuan, compared with -189 million yuan in 2022, although the loss narrowed, but it still did not achieve profitability.
In the performance forecast, I would like you to say that in 2023, the revenue will increase, the proportion of depreciation and amortization expenses of fixed assets will decrease, and the company will achieve a year-on-year decline in the expense ratio through refined management, but the gross profit is still not enough to cover the expenses during the period, resulting in the company continuing to lose money.
After comparing the data of peers, it is found that the gross profit level of Haoxiangyou is acceptable, and its operating costs are mainly self-made costs, transportation costs and commissioned processing costs, totaling about 1.283 billion yuan, corresponding to a gross profit margin of 25.74%, which is in the middle of the 21 companies in the A-share snack food sector.
Tabulation: Zuo Yu
Corresponding to different regions, the gross profit margin of the business in Henan Province was 30.81% and 35.39% respectively, and the gross profit margin outside Henan Province was only 14.33%, while the market outside Henan Province, which had the worst gross profit performance, contributed 35.47% of the revenue, accounting for the first, and the low interest rate performance of the largest market directly dragged down the company's overall profitability.
For the large difference in gross profit margin, I would like you to respond to the reporter of "International Financial News" that the reason for the difference in gross profit margin between the province and the province is mainly due to different channel types and different product structures. Among them, the company's provincial business is mainly based on monopoly channels, the products are mainly gift box business, and the sales model is mainly direct sales. The business outside the province is mainly based on supermarkets and snack channels, the products are mainly jujube leisure snacks, and the sales model is mainly distribution, which belongs to the second growth curve that the company is vigorously cultivating and developing. I think you said that "in the future, with the advancement of the company's hyperbolic strategy, I believe that the relevant gross profit margin will be further improved".
The gross profit margin of 25.74% is not low in the industry, but due to the high expenses during the period that swallowed up the company's profits, the net profit margin of 2023 is only -3.27%, which is the only one among the 21 companies that is negative.
In 2023, the increase in marketing and promotion expenses and platform expenses of e-commerce channels, as well as the increase in salaries and benefits and equity incentive expenses of sales personnel, will increase sales expenses from 316 million yuan in the previous year to 364 million yuan, an increase of 15.4%, and the sales expense rate will be 21.07%, ranking among the top five in the industry; administrative expenses amounted to RMB131 million, an increase of 11.74% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in equity incentive expenses and intermediary fees for foreign investment snacks; Financial expenses also increased by 22.47% year-on-year to -31 million yuan.
The performance also has a direct impact on the confidence of the capital market.
After the 2023 performance forecast was disclosed on January 30 this year, the stock price fell for four consecutive trading days, and on February 5, it fell to 5.21 yuan per share, a new low in more than ten years since its listing. In the evening, the company issued an announcement on the share repurchase plan, planning to repurchase the company's shares with 50 million to 100 million yuan, accounting for about 1.58%-3.15% of the total share capital, and the repurchased shares will be used for equity incentive plans or employee stock ownership plans. As of April 30, it has repurchased 11,535,900 shares, accounting for 2.55% of the total share capital.
Hopefully, snacks are busy
I really think you also had a highlight moment, when Baicaowei was still under your command.
Before 2016, I really thought you were still a company with revenue hovering around 1 billion. In 2016, it acquired the snack giant Baicaowei for 960 million yuan, taking advantage of the Internet at that time, the revenue of the company jumped to 2.072 billion yuan that year, and the company's market value once exceeded 10 billion yuan, and the revenue of the following year further rose to 4.07 billion yuan, and reached a peak of nearly 6 billion yuan in 2019.
In 2020, I want you to sell Baicaowei at a price of nearly 5 billion yuan, and in four years, the investment difference alone will be about 4 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the company will increase by 2.231 billion yuan that year. At the end of 2020, the monetary funds increased by 211.93% from the beginning of the year to RMB1.67 billion, and the trading financial assets increased by 22,310.56% from the beginning of the year to RMB1.615 billion.
After selling Baicaowei, I really want you to return to the main business of jujubes, but jujubes don't seem to be able to support the banner of performance, and in 2021 and 2022, its revenue will only be 1.281 billion yuan and 1.4 billion yuan.
Zhu Danpeng, an analyst of China's food industry, once said that after the divestment of Baicaowei, I think that the jujube business that you are currently focusing on has a low technology content, and it is difficult to have premium ability and space in the market, so the performance development has fallen into a downturn.
In order to find performance growth points, I really want you to try to expand the second growth curve, in 2023, it has formulated a hyperbolic development strategy, the first curve is mainly gift business, the second curve is mainly large single product business, last year's large single product red pie series products revenue exceeded 200 million yuan, and the company's overall revenue reached 1.728 billion yuan.
Image source: I miss you official flagship store
At the same time, in order to drive the growth of offline business, at the end of last year, I want you to invest 700 million yuan in Hunan Snack Very Busy Commercial Chain Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Snack is very busy"), and cooperate with "Wanchen Department" to break the situation with snack channels. In that year, its revenue from the snack channel was 55 million yuan, accounting for 3.21% of the total revenue, which was still in the climbing stage.
In 2024, it seems that the cooperation between you and Snack is very busy will not be going well. In April this year, I would like you to disclose the announcement of the expected related party transactions in 2024, which is expected to be busy selling products and raw materials to related party snacks, and the contract amount or estimated amount is about 181 million yuan. In other words, I think you are expected to generate 181 million yuan in sales this year in the busy snack channel.
As of the end of April, the number of stores of the snack group has exceeded 9,000, and it is the "giant" in the mass snack track.
But the problem is that from January to March, including the peak season of the Spring Festival, the amount of this related party transaction has only 18.7078 million yuan, accounting for 10.33% of the estimated amount. If you follow this rhythm, the annual transaction amount of you and snacks is about 75 million yuan, which is quite different from expectations.
In the face of the reporter's question about whether the estimated amount can be reached, I think you seem quite confident, "The company is very busy with snacks The transaction amount of 181 million yuan is expected to be carried out based on various factors, and we are confident that we will reach and strive to break through the amount." ”