Soybean oil market: May Day holiday, due to the extreme precipitation in Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil, Brazil's soybean production estimate was lowered, international soybean prices rose against the trend, and the duty-paid price of domestic imported soybeans rose by about 100~120 yuan/ton, supported by costs, soybean oil prices after the holiday showed a situation of rising with the rise, the increase was generally about 100 yuan/ton, and the domestic mainstream spot soybean oil price rose above 8000 yuan/ton!
However, last Friday, palm oil prices fell sharply as institutions took profits, which also led to a sharp decline in soybean oil contract quotations, and the market fell to the lowest value in the last two weeks, and the spot market also showed a downward trend!
According to the data, at present, the average price of first-class soybean oil in the mainstream domestic coastal oil mills is about 7760 yuan/ton, of which the price in Tianjin is 7720 yuan/ton, the price of Shandong Rizhao Oil Plant is 7740 yuan/ton, the price of Zhangjiagang is 7790 yuan, and the price of Dongguan Oil Plant in Guangdong is about 7780 yuan/ton!
At present, the new issue, the US USDA monthly supply and demand report is released, which is basically in line with the market's previous estimates, of which the expected soybean production in the United States in 24/25 is 4.45 billion bushels, and the ending inventory is expected to be 445 million bushels, which is higher than the market's previous expectation of 431 million bushels! Among them, the yield of new crop soybeans is expected to be 52 bushels/acre, higher than the market's previous expectation of 51.9 bushels.
In addition, in terms of soybean production capacity in South America, Argentina's production capacity is expected to be 50 million tons, higher than the market expectation of 49.61 million tons, while Brazil's soybean production forecast for 23/24 years has been lowered to 154 million tons, higher than the market expectation of 152.6 million tons!
As the USDA monthly report has improved expectations for South America, the fundamentals of the report are in a neutral and bearish situation!
Supported by this, the palm oil market in Malaysia is under pressure, and the domestic oil quotation is also declining, among them, soybean oil has fallen significantly, and there has been a basis inversion in some areas, however, due to the tension in geopolitical relations and the United States will tariff list on China or will involve waste edible oil, which may have a certain impact on the domestic market!
In the short term, the domestic soybean oil market may maintain a volatile situation, however, with the arrival of the peak of domestic soybean imports, the operating rate of oil mills will gradually increase, and the supply pattern will gradually improve.
Egg market: in the domestic egg market, recently, egg prices have bottomed out, since this month, the production and marketing market, egg prices have risen by 0.3~0.35 yuan / kg compared with the beginning of the month, an increase of nearly 10%, however, in the past two days, egg prices have further risen slightly pressure, and the market has shown a stalemate and shocking trend!
At present, the factors supporting the strong egg price! On the one hand, due to the rise in breeding costs, the corn market has gradually stopped falling and strengthened, while the cost of imported soybeans is higher, the price of soybean meal has fluctuated higher, and the pressure of breeding losses has increased. On the other hand, due to the low egg price in the early stage, the market has a certain operation of replenishment on dips, and some food companies have the phenomenon of warehousing, which is good for the price!
However, due to the phased supply pressure, the number of new laying hens this month may be 41.98 million birds, and the theoretical value of the old chicken elimination is 36.12 million birds, the inventory level of laying hens remains high, and the egg supply level is relaxed! On the demand side, due to the high temperature and humid environment, there are more substitution consumption phenomena of residents, the downstream market replenishment demand is cautious, the risk of mildew in egg storage is high, and the market is long and short.
At present, according to institutional data, the average price of eggs in Shandong is 7.24 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.17 yuan compared with last week's 6, and the average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.79 yuan/kg, and the price has stabilized. In the Beijing market, the average price of eggs is 7.34 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan compared with last Saturday, and the price of eggs in Guangdong is 8.46 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.09 yuan!
Refined oil market: According to the analysis of institutional data, at present, 8 working days before the end of the new round of domestic gasoline and diesel prices, the domestic crude oil change rate is -4.88%, and the price of gasoline and diesel is estimated to fall by 235 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to the price increase of 92/95 gasoline The price decline is estimated to be about 0.18~0.21 yuan/liter!
The fall in oil prices landed, 10 oil price adjustments during the year will usher in the situation of "5 up, 3 down and 2 stranded", after the rise and fall discount, the price of gasoline and diesel during the year narrowed to 570 yuan / ton and 540 yuan / ton, equivalent to the price of 92 gasoline narrowed to about 0.47 yuan / liter during the year, the cost of residential vehicles was significantly reduced, and the price of 92 gasoline is estimated to fall back to the "7 yuan era"! However, oil prices still rose significantly during the year......
It is understood that the decline in oil prices is mainly supported by the pressure of international oil prices, and the decline in international oil prices is mainly supported by two factors!
On the one hand, due to the pressure of high inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve maintains a high interest rate level of 5.25~5.5%. Previously, according to the U.S. April economic data and non-farm data, it was generally believed that in the second half of the year, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in advance, but a few days ago, due to the remarks of senior Federal Reserve officials to curb the expectation of interest rate cuts, this has intensified the market's prospects for international energy consumption!
On the other hand, geopolitical tensions have weakened concerns about crude oil supply disruptions, OPEC+ organizations have certain risks for oil production cuts, and U.S. crude oil exports have increased sharply, which has exacerbated market concerns about crude oil oversupply!
However, due to the prospect of a recession in the United States, the market believes that the Federal Reserve will still cut interest rates during the year, and a new round of OPEC+ production cuts may continue until the end of the year, and global energy consumption will enter the peak season, which will also have some support for the market! International oil prices may be difficult to form a unilateral trend, and prices may show high-frequency shocks!
The author will also continue to pay attention to the changes in the crude oil market, timely update the latest oil price adjustment expectations, the oil price will be adjusted at 24 o'clock on Wednesday night on May 15, domestic gasoline and diesel prices or will usher in a single largest decline, we told each other, I hope that in the last two days, oil prices can fall down......
Attached: On May 14, 2024, the price of No. 92 gasoline in all provinces and cities across the country (the level of 70 yuan/ton will be reduced by the end of April, and the oil price will be adjusted at 24 o'clock on the 15th)