Recently, supported by sentiment, stimulated by the rise in the main hog contract, the market is more optimistic about the prospect of pig prices. In particular, the market generally estimated that the pig price was "near weak and far stronger", but with the deepening of pig production capacity and the decline in pig prices after May Day, the market is bullish on the prospect of pig prices in recent months!
Supported by this factor, on the one hand, the breeding end of the slaughter sentiment is differentiated, the enthusiasm of retail investors and group pig enterprises to increase the price of pigs, and the mentality of large pigs slaughtering is higher, in particular, the sentiment of the group pig enterprises to control the volume is higher! On the other hand, the pace of secondary fattening has accelerated, and the phenomenon of concentrated pig grabbing has temporarily appeared in the northern region, which has further exacerbated the difficulty of pig circulation, increased the performance of slaughtering enterprises to shrink the source of pigs to the factory, and slaughtering enterprises were forced to raise prices and ensure quantity!
However, with the short-term rise in pig prices, the bullish confidence in the market has weakened, and the pattern of live pig purchase and sales has deteriorated again!
First, consumer demand is in the off-season, the downstream white purchase and sales are cold, the operating rate of the slaughterhouse is low, and the mentality of purchasing pigs at high prices is poor, especially if the pig price has risen before, the transaction price of downstream white pigs has not risen smoothly, the price difference between wool and white has been narrowing, and the loss pressure of slaughtering enterprises is higher, and the mentality of price reduction is stronger!
Second, after the pig is strong for a short time, the sentiment of the breeding end of the fence is gradually loosened, the group pig enterprises have a significant increase in the operation of the slaughter, it is understood that this month the group pig enterprises slaughter plan more, some institutions research, the domestic mainstream 206 scale pig enterprises this month slaughter plan rose by 7.7% month-on-month, the group pig enterprises have the sentiment of selling pigs at high prices, in particular, at this stage, the consumption constraints are not reduced, the standard fertilizer price spread is upside down, the big fat pressure bar risk price, and the breeding end has the mentality of subscribing!
Third, the price of standard pigs has risen, which has inhibited the confidence of the second breeding column! At present, in some areas of the north, the cost price of the pig has reached 8 pieces of 56, the cost of the second breeding has increased, and the price of corn and soybean meal has the risk of rising, the feed cost of the pig weight gain of the second breeding column will rise significantly, which also inhibits the mentality of entering the market at a high price!
Therefore, under the long and short game, the price of pigs rose under pressure, and the price showed a trend of rising and falling! According to the price of slaughtering enterprises, due to the northern region, the breeding end of the subscription increases, the slaughtering enterprise pig source to the factory level is relaxed, it is expected that on May 14, the price of three-yuan pigs outside the country fell by 0.07 yuan / kg, the price of slaughtering enterprises fell to about 15.05 yuan / kg, pig prices showed a trend of rising and falling, and the market was short-term or had weak pressure of shock!
The market outlook pays attention to the changes in the rhythm of the group's pig slaughter and the performance of the second breeding entry situation after the pig price declines, rationally, the pig price still has a certain support, and in a short period of time, the price is mainly weak and stable!