On August 8, Putin officially took office, starting a new six-year term as Russian president.
At the same time, Russia officially announced that the country to be visited in Putin's new term was determined to be China. At this time, on the other side of the ocean, the assertion that "Putin is rebuilding the Soviet Union" has once again made headlines in the United States.
Putin is rebuilding the USSR! This is not a "headline party" by a certain Western media, nor is it a current affairs expert "grandstanding" to earn traffic.
"Putin is rebuilding the Soviet Union" is a common assertion of the US diplomatic and military departments! They firmly believe that "Putin is reasserting influence on the former Soviet Union countries", and the attitude of the United States is: never accept it!
One, the mouth of the Black Sea, the place where the dream of the "new Soviet Union" began
This time, the thesis that "Putin is rebuilding the Soviet Union" was first put forward by former US Secretary of Defense Panetta and represents the opinion of the US military.
On January 9, in an interview with the American media, Blinken, Secretary of State in charge of global strategy and foreign affairs of the United States, announced to the world: "He agrees with Panetta's point of view, and also believes that Putin is rebuilding the Soviet Union, and the United States will never accept it"!
Blinken's remarks represent the overall views of the U.S. diplomatic team. Therefore, this conclusion is a common understanding among the U.S. military and foreign policymakers.
Is Putin really rebuilding the Soviet Union? My judgment is: Putin is trying!
Many people have always thought that "Russia" is the "little USSR", or that the USSR is "Russia with a larger area"!
This is a serious misreading!
After World War II, the Soviet Union and the United States "attacked and defended each other" in many fields such as ideology, science and technology, military, and geopolitics, and even the Soviet Union was once a powerful existence that made the United States "frightened".
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia's economy is now only close to that of Guangdong Province, its population has also entered negative growth, and the economy has been flickered by the United States' shock therapy, and comprehensive economic sanctions have been blocked, making Russia's global economic influence "minimal".
Therefore, with the powerful power of Putin's "fierce man from the sky", it is impossible to rebuild the "Soviet Union at its peak".
But in the last decade, Putin has been trying to build a "shape-like Soviet Union".
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, in the face of American plunder and NATO's eastward expansion, the first two decades of Russia were "fully contracted", so Putin's rebuilding of the USSR was a hallmark, starting with "territorial re-expansion"!
In the past ten years, every time Putin's "strategic expansion" has been a "wonderful counter-killing" under the policy of extreme aggression and maximum pressure of the United States!
It can be seen that Putin, a fierce man who fell from the sky, naturally likes to play "chess against the wind", and can often get his "core interests" in extreme disadvantages.
Russia has a vast territory, spanning Europe and Asia, and Ukraine and Belarus, which are the last two gates of Russia at the doorstep of Europe. The five Central Asian countries located in Asia are the "five golden flowers" of Russia's backyard left over from the Soviet era!
Throughout the first decade of the 21st century, Russia has been repeatedly fighting in Ukraine against the "color revolution forces" of the United States and Europe.
Eventually, the street revolution in Ukraine allowed the former president to flee to Moscow, and as far as Ukraine as a whole is concerned, Russia lost to the West, and two doors were torn down with one.
In March 2014, under the absolute disadvantage of Ukraine being completely controlled by the United States and Europe, Putin staged a classic counterattack and recaptured "Crimea".
Crimea was originally Russian territory, which was once assigned to Ukraine by the Soviet Union during the Soviet era, and now Ukraine has fallen to the West, and Putin has withstood the huge political pressure of the international community to split a "sovereign neighbor" to keep the ports of the "Black Sea Fleet" and Russia's access to the sea in the Black Sea.
The color revolution in Ukraine, the United States and Europe further compressed Russia's strategic space to the limit, and Putin was the counter-killing under the limit, recapturing Crimea, and realizing the "first territorial expansion" after the founding of Russia.
Second, the color coup d'état, so that the "Western admirers" became "Russia and Belarus as one"
Putin's seizure of Crimea has opened the door to Russia's dream of "rebuilding the Soviet Union", but the "all-round economic sanctions" that have lasted from the United States and Europe for many years have made Russia powerless for "strategic expansion".
In the next six or seven years, Russia, which took Crimea, was only struggling to resist the eastward expansion of the United States and NATO, with China's economic support!
Putin was able to complete the important expansion of the "rebuilding of the Soviet Union" thanks to the great help of the United States and the West in the "color revolution".
Putin was able to "rebuild the Soviet Union", Crimea is just "opening the door to dreams", and the cornerstone of the reconstruction of the Soviet Union is the "Russia-Belarus Integration Agreement" signed just last year.
The Internet and international politics have a memory!
If you check the news about Russia and Belarus in the past few years, you will find that Belarus is not interested in "Russia-Belarus integration", and even very repulsive.
Judging from the statements of the heads of state in the past few years, the relationship between Putin and Belarusian President Lukashenko can only be said to be "average".
All this, in 2021, took a sharp 180-degree turn.
The United States and European countries support the reactionaries in Belarus and promote "color revolutions" with the intention of overthrowing Lukashenko's "long-term rule".
Prior to this, Lukashenko had expressed a conciliatory attitude towards the EU and a pro-Western "willingness to reform the economy."
However, the United States and Europe have joined forces to promote a "street coup" in Belarus, and Lukashenko not only has a precarious position as president, but exile after stepping down is the best outcome.
Against the background of being "embattled", Putin has actually become the anchor of the stability of the situation in Belarus. Lukashenko also recognized "Putin's big brother" very obediently.
After Lukashenko relied on Putin's support to stabilize the situation in Belarus and achieve a long-term rule, he also realized that "balanced diplomacy" was bound to die, and vigorously promoted the "integration of Russia and Belarus" and became Putin's hardcore little brother, so that he could "prosper with Russia" with Russia.
Belarus originally had a trend of "pro-Western reform", which was precisely the subversive attempt of the West's "color revolution", the attack on Russia's last "gateway", forcing Putin to forcefully fight back.
The Russian-Belarusian integration agreement not only gives Belarus the possibility of "declaring itself a part of Russia" at any time, but also creates the "best model" for other former Soviet countries that want to maintain their rule to sign an agreement with Putin to ensure the continuation of the regime.
If more countries of the former Soviet Union sign an "integration agreement" with Russia in the future, this agreement will become the cornerstone of the "alliance of states" and have the prototype of a "new Soviet Union".
Third, there is chaos in Central Asia, "force" Putin to garrison Central Asia!
Putin won the cornerstone of "rebuilding the Soviet Union" and relied on the help of the "color revolutions" in the United States and Europe.
At the beginning of 2022, the conclusion that the U.S. military and foreign affairs departments jointly agreed that "Putin rebuilt the Soviet Union" was Russia's "stronger control" over Kazakhstan.
If Russia can really achieve the "stationing" of Kazakhstan, a country with more than 2 million square kilometers and the ninth largest country in the world, it will also be thanks to the "American color revolution" to send people away!
Prior to this year, Kazakhstan, although a member of the former Soviet Union, had always had a "balanced diplomacy" policy, although its geographical location and energy structure made Kazakhstan's relations with China and Russia closer.
But economic reforms in Kazakhstan, especially energy investment, are a big open door for the United States and Europe.
The U.S. gas conglomerate, which controls 75% of Kazakhstan's natural gas resources, has triggered a pro-Western "color revolution" due to the policy of "removing natural gas price restrictions from the state" and "transferring benefits to U.S. energy capital."
More than 100,000 people marched and demonstrated, and more than 10,000 people carried out violent looting, many of whom distributed and used heavy weapons, and at one time occupied state offices and international airports.
According to the "conventional script" of the first decade of the new century in the United States, the next step is the drama of "the president's resignation," trial, or asylum in a foreign country.
However, the president of Kazakhstan immediately asked Russia for help, and Putin "bypassed the congressional process" and directly sent peacekeeping troops to the capital of Kazakhstan at "lightning speed".
With Putin's strong support and the rapid arrival of Russian peacekeepers, the president of Kazakhstan has also toughly quelled the riots and obtained "absolute power" in the country.
According to foreign media reports, Russia promised to send troops to quell the chaos because Kazakhstan promised a lot of "integration policies" in the fields of "ethnicity, culture, education, and writing".
Moreover, public opinion in Russia hopes that the "peacekeeping force stationed in Kazakhstan" will be permanently stationed from now on.
In this way, Kazakhstan will be stationed by "Russian peacekeepers" in the future, and there is a president who "Putin is strong enough to save lives" and only then has absolute power in the country, and it is very likely that Kazakhstan will follow Belarus's example and sign an "integration agreement" in the future.
Fourth, what can the United States do in the face of the forced "new Soviet Union"?
In recent days, it has been a "week of negotiations" between the United States and Russia around Ukraine.
Russia's attitude is very clear, either "Ukraine recognizes the de facto independence of the eastern part of Ukraine", or it will use military war to make eastern Ukraine "the next Crimea".
The United States exerts maximum pressure on Russia in terms of "momentum", but it is very afraid that Russia will use force against Ukraine.
Judging from the recent statements of the United States, Ukraine, which is on the "pork platform", is likely to be betrayed by the United States at will in the negotiations in which "he himself is not qualified to participate".
Therefore, it is uncertain whether Russia will launch a military attack on Ukraine this year. But whether it is a negotiation or a war, Ukraine will lose the eastern regions, that's for sure!
In just a few years, Russia got Crimea, then Belarus, and if you add Kazakhstan and eastern Ukraine this year, Russia will restore "90% of the territory" of the Soviet Union "in a close-knit union" way.
By that time, at least "outwardly", Putin had achieved the "rebuilding of the USSR".
In the face of the Soviet Union, the United States had a fear engraved in its bones, and it "will never accept the rebirth of the Soviet Union."
But in the face of Putin's "being pressed step by step" and expanding the country's territory step by step, what can the United States do?
If the United States has "politicians" who really want to deal with the "new Soviet Union," it must be clear why the United States was able to survive in the seventies, when the economy was very difficult and was suppressed for a time, and finally achieved a counter-killing of the Soviet Union.
Because of the hegemony of the Soviet Union, Sino-Soviet relations were very bad. It was precisely in the most difficult 70s that the United States completed the ice-breaking journey of establishing diplomatic relations between China and the United States.
During the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union in the last century, it was China's "third pole role" that maintained the balance of power in the world, and also allowed the United States to finally drag down the Soviet Union by virtue of its economic and technological advantages!
Therefore, the only way for the United States to deal with the "new Soviet Union" is to ease and even work to create a revival of Sino-American relations!
It is a pity that the United States today lacks politicians and is a "politician with a cannon of mouth," and the current US government is pursuing a foreign and military policy of "anti-Russia and more anti-China" to force "China and Russia to form a closer alliance."
If the United States cannot make the choice of "improving Sino-US relations", it will continue to tremble under the powerful pressure of Putin to "rebuild the Soviet Union" step by step!
Wu, the Kazakh rebellion has inspired the mainland!
Today, China and Russia are in the "best stage of historical relations."
However, "rebuilding the Soviet Union" is also a "highly sensitive" word in the hearts of the people on the mainland.
Sino-Russian relations have the best history, but Sino-Soviet relations are really short honeymoon periods, and the cycle of vigilance and confrontation is longer.
Even in the perception of the older generation in China, the vigilance and even "fear" of the "Soviet Union" is still above that of the United States, which is far away from the Pacific Ocean.
Needless to say, before the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 90s, the mainland's largest military layout and military expenditure were on the stretching northern border.
In the most classic military-themed film and television drama "Bright Sword", the main creators represented many "military experts" on the mainland and made a war plan of "the Soviet Union from the north to the south". This episode has not been deleted, which proves that this concern has always been engraved in the perception of the Chinese people.
Therefore, from the perspective of China's strategic interests, we need a tough Russia that has a hard top with the United States and shares the strategic pressure of the United States; But we absolutely do not need a "Soviet overlord" who is a tyrant and a tyrant.
In the international situation of the past five years, against the backdrop of increasingly fierce and irreconcilable Sino-US game struggles, Putin has relied on his excellent skills to win many core interests for Russia's expansion.
At this stage, Russia is indeed on the road to "rebuilding the USSR", so should we consider the proposal that appeared on the Internet to "détente with the United States and delay the reappearance of the USSR"!
My point of view is that we do not need to think about the issue of "suppressing the Soviet Union" at least in the next few years, and anyone who puts forward the proposal of "slowing down the United States and containing Russia" in the short cycle of the next few years is carrying out an insidious strategy of "provoking China and Russia".
At least in the period when China's economy is increasingly close to the United States, and the conflict between China and the United States is becoming more and more inevitable in the Taiwan Strait, we do not need to think about the question of "Putin's reconstruction of the Soviet Union".
In addition, the "Kazakh chaos" in the last week has also given me a judgment that "Putin's Soviet Union" is not to worry about in the long run.
Although the underlying forces in the chaos in Kazakhstan were instigated by the color revolution in the United States and the West, at the highest level, there was also a "complete change" after "long-term friction of power".
The subsidence of civil unrest in Kazakhstan this time coincided with the fact that Nazarbayev, the former leader of the founding father, who had ruled Kazakhstan for 30 years, "completely withdrew from the political arena" and the new President Tokayev took full power.
This power struggle in Kazakhstan was already doomed when Nazarbayev "announced his resignation from the presidency" in 2019.
Nazarbayev's "abdication" in 2019 was accompanied by "restrictions on the rights of his successor".
The history of thousands of years of human domination also proves a truth that cannot be broken. Every strong long-term ruler will impose "very strict checks and balances" on the "successor" or crown prince.
Historically, every powerful long-ruling emperor has been accompanied by the deposition of the crown prince and the replacement of his successor after a short period of time.
Nursultan Nazarbayev, who had "absolute power" when he was president, limited the power of the president before he resigned, expanding the power of the Congress, and expanding the power of the chairman of the National Security Council to control national security and the military.
After Nazarbayev's resignation in 2019, he became chairman of the National Security Council, and he said he would have "the same presidential term" as President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
In Kazakhstan for more than two years, the nominal president is Tokayev, but the power of military and national security has always been in the hands of Nazarbayev, and the two power centers have caused today's "civil strife" in Kazakhstan is inevitable.
What you may not have expected is that in Putin's "constitutional reform" in 2020, in addition to clearing his presidential term, leaving the possibility of "long-term governance" in the future,
On the other hand, the constitutional amendment also reshaped the supreme power of the state. In the future of Russia, the pattern of a strong president and a weak Duma (equivalent to a parliament) will completely change.
In the reform of the country's top-level politics in 2020, Putin expanded the power of the Duma and changed "the prime minister is nominated and appointed and dismissed by the president" to "the prime minister is nominated and appointed and dismissed by the Duma".
At the same time, Putin pushed for the establishment of the Russian National Security Council, which "disguised" the control of Russia's national security and military affairs from the president to the chairman of the National Security Council.
Everyone will be surprised to find that Putin's "future decentralization after resignation as president" reform designed last year is actually modeled after Nazarbayev in 2019.
In 2019, Nazarbayev retired smoothly, and the presidential power was transferred to the party heir Tokayev, at least in the eyes of the year, this "separation of powers" reform, the "political arrangement" of the president's retirement and transfer to the "chairman of the National Security Council" to help him get on the horse was successful.
However, Kazakhstan's "high-level power struggle" catalyzed by the color revolution in the West this year can clearly see that this kind of "decentralization reform" will definitely "usher in the ultimate showdown" in the future. And it's a very tragic showdown.
Many stubbornly believe that Putin's authority in Russia is incomparable to that of Nazarbayev. From the point of view of an "absolute political strongman", Putin, of course, is much stronger than Nazarbayev.
However, in terms of "relative control", Putin's control in Russia and popular support in Russia are very similar to Nazarbayev's control in Kazakhstan during his 30 years in power and public support.
Therefore, a Russia with a weak economy and a lack of historical and cultural inheritance and institutional arrangements will not pose a great threat to the restoration of the "glory of the Soviet Union" in the era of Putin, a "macho man from the sky"!
No matter how tough Putin's body is, he will be able to hold out until 2036, when he will be Nazarbayev, who has been in power for 30 years and is in decline.
Russia after 2036 will inevitably have a period of decadence and internal friction, so in the long run, the "shape like the Soviet Union" created by Putin will never become a threatening "hegemonic Soviet Union".
In the face of Putin's "rebuilding of the Soviet Union", we can laugh at "a new round of sharper conflicts between the United States and Russia"!
We need a tough Russia that "strives to rebuild the USSR." We also understand that there is no new USSR for the future of the world!