Text/Editor: Yu Xiaoran's notes
On May 8, 2024, a piece of news caused an uproar in the Philippines. The Manila Times, a well-known Philippine media outlet, released an audio recording of a phone call between the Chinese and Philippine government leaders on a new model for the supply of supplies to Ren'ai Jiao in the South China Sea and reached an agreement.
The exposure of the recording directly disgraced the Philippine government, which has previously denied that it had reached any agreement with China on the matter, after the Philippine defense secretary, national security adviser and other high-level officials had flatly denied that they had reached any agreement with China on the matter. But the audio recorded the scene where they confirmed their consent at the time, debunking their lies one by one.
Faced with this thorny situation, the Philippine side ignored the facts and accused China of "illegal eavesdropping". Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro even angrily denounced the "expulsion of relevant Chinese embassy personnel" in an attempt to cover up his sophistry with strong means.
The crisis has directly exacerbated tensions in China-Philippines relations, and it is widely believed that the Philippines' irrational anger has actually stabbed a hornet's nest with its repeated provocative "small actions" on the South China Sea issue.
Not only did it go its own way and violate its previous commitments, but it also openly joined hands with the United States to dictate on islands and reefs in the South China Sea, which provoked the Chinese government.
Frankly, the recording scandal was not deliberately created by the Chinese government. However, the Philippine side blindly denied it, and the Chinese side had to disclose the evidence materials in order to restore the truth.
But even so, the Philippines remains arrogant and unrepentant. This made the Chinese government decide that it must refute the lies with a resolute and forceful voice and sternly warn the Philippine side not to make mistakes again and again.
On May 10, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian delivered an important speech on this matter at a regular press conference. He bluntly pointed out that the words and deeds of the Philippines just show that the Philippine side has "ghosts" in its heart.
"What the Philippine side has done can only be regarded as a childish act of resistance, because they are weak in the face of facts and evidence, and they feel weak about our great strength, so they will take such an expulsion action."
Lin Jian's tone was resolute, like a sharp sword of the country pointed directly at the Philippine side.
He called on the Philippines to earnestly ensure that Chinese diplomats perform their duties, and warned the Philippine side not to: "Do not deny the facts, let alone shoot yourself in the foot."
Lin Jian's harsh words convey the Chinese government's firm determination to safeguard national interests and diplomatic dignity. It is clear that the Chinese government has lost patience with the unreasonable provocation and blatant deception of the Philippine side.
Since President Marcos took office, the Philippines seems to have embarked on a dangerous "confrontational line" over the South China Sea. Not only have they publicly denied the agreement reached by the previous government on a new model for the supply of Ren'ai Jiao, but they have also repeatedly taken provocative actions to undermine China's sovereignty and rights and interests in the South China Sea.
For example, in April this year, Philippine warships operated within 12 nautical miles of Scarborough Shoal in the Nansha Islands of the mainland, openly breaching the red line. At that time, the Chinese side made solemn representations, but the Philippine side turned a deaf ear.
In early May, the Philippines and the United States conducted military-related exercises at Xishayong Reef in China's Nansha Islands, directly provoking China's bottom line. Officers and soldiers of the Philippines and the United States even landed on the island in person, openly violating China's territorial sovereignty.
It can be said that after Marcos took office, the United States began to support and instigate the Philippines to provoke China on the South China Sea issue. The United States is trying to stir up trouble between the Philippines and China and undermine regional peace and stability.
The joint move of the Philippines and the United States has seriously violated China's bottom line, but the Philippine side is pretending to be innocent at this time and turning a blind eye to the agreement reached. This is nothing short of a great provocation and blatant deception of the Chinese government.
In the face of such blatant fraud and threats, the Chinese government will naturally not remain indifferent.
In fact, as long as the Philippine side sincerely admits its mistakes, the Chinese government is fully willing to reopen the door to dialogue with the Philippine side and resolve differences and ease contradictions through diplomatic means. As long as the Philippines comes in good faith, China will be able to show its goodwill.
However, the current situation is that no matter how sincere and justified the Chinese government is, it will be difficult for the self-contained Philippine side to admit its mistakes. Even with the evidence in front of them, the Philippine side still turned a blind eye and was stubborn to the point of being staggering.
Many analysts believe that the reason why the Philippine side is so stubborn and unrepentant is that it is instigated and used by the United States, and second, President Marcos is unwilling to admit defeat.
For Marcos, to admit that he had reached a "new model for the supply of Ren'ai Jiao" with the previous DPRK would be to admit the rationality of the Duterte administration's policies.
Marcos, on the other hand, has pursued "balanced diplomacy" since taking office, hinting at a gradual distance from the United States, while also keeping a certain distance from Duterte's policies, so he is reluctant to deny the previous agreement.
On the other hand, another important reason why Marcos is so stubborn now is that he does not want to be regarded as making such an absurd decision because he is instigated by the United States to engage in confrontation and spoil the overall situation, so he simply adopts the practice of openly denying it.
In any case, the Marcos administration's approach now betrays a shift in its stance on the South China Sea and its intention to harden its China policy with the support of the United States.
China and the United States have already engaged in a contest on a number of hot-spot issues in the Asia-Pacific region, and Southeast Asia seems to be becoming a new battlefield for containment on both sides. And the Marcos administration is being used by the United States in an attempt to tear China's influence in Southeast Asia from within.
This poses a severe test for the Chinese government: how to uphold its principles without completely dragging the Philippines into the camp of the United States against China? How can we safeguard our legitimate rights and interests in the South China Sea while avoiding complete defeat in the traditional battlefield of the Philippines?
This is a diplomatic conundrum that requires a high degree of wisdom and patience. China must safeguard its core interests while leaving room to bring the Philippines back on the right track. The South China Sea is China's absolute core interest zone in Southeast Asia, and every inch of territorial sovereignty is an inviolable red line.
As long as the Philippines continues to ignore the facts and wantonly provoke, China will make a resolute and forceful response.
But at the same time, as long as the Philippines changes its mind and regains its rationality, China's door will always be open. After all, peace and development are the best interests of countries in the region, and blind confrontation is doomed to both sides.
From this point of view, what the Marcos administration is doing so far is fraught with short-sightedness and lacks strategic heights. It is instigated by the United States to go back on its word, and it is basically destroying the Great Wall. Marcos needs to be soberly aware that the South China Sea issue is, in the final analysis, a major issue of right and wrong related to the long-term development of China-Philippines relations.
Once the Marcos administration is completely coerced by the United States and chooses to confront China regardless of the facts, the price to pay will be incomparable.
Not only will the Philippines lose China, its largest economic partner, but it will also be exploited by the United States and drift away from the region's future development.
It is therefore a critical time for the Marcos administration to rethink carefully. Although being instigated by the United States to take a tough stance on China may win the hearts and minds of the people for a while, in the long run, it will be difficult for the Philippines to gain a foothold in the regional structure if it loses friendly relations with China.
As far as China is concerned, although the current situation is full of difficulties, as long as it remains rational and calm, and adheres to the bottom line of principles, it will definitely be able to resolve the current crisis. On the South China Sea issue, China's position has always been firm and well-founded. We are not deliberately trying to exacerbate the contradictions, but we are forced to take the necessary responses in order to defend our own rights and interests.
In short, the crux of the impasse in the South China Sea lies in the fundamental differences and contests between the United States and China over the regional landscape. On the one hand, the United States wants to limit China's influence in Southeast Asia, and on the other hand, it is also using its old ally the Philippines to "support" itself on the South China Sea issue.
China, on the other hand, hopes to maintain the current order and stability in the South China Sea and avoid being contained and manipulated by the United States.
This is doomed to make it difficult for China and the Philippines to reach a consensus on the South China Sea issue soon. The more tough the Philippines is on China, the more resolute it will respond.
If the two countries were to descend into a larger confrontation, both would pay a heavy price. Only through dialogue and consultation and frank encounters can we leave an opportunity for resolving disputes.
So, let's wait and see, this Sino-US contest in the Asia-Pacific region will continue for a long time. The Chinese government will adhere to the bottom line and strategic determination of a major country, and will not be led by the clue of the Philippines. At the same time, it is also expected that the Marcos administration will listen to public opinion, regain its rationality, and contribute its wisdom to resolving the deadlock in the South China Sea.
The U.S. ambition to contain China's influence vs. China's determination to safeguard its core interests will continue for a long time.
Let's all look forward to where this dispute will eventually go.
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