On April 16, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the operation of the national economy in the first quarter of 2024.
Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the meeting that in the first quarter, the employment situation was generally stable, and the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas dropped slightly. In the first quarter, the average surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas nationwide was 5.2 percent, down 0.3 percentage points from the same period last year. The unemployment rate of the local registered labour force survey was 5.3%; The surveyed unemployment rate of the migrant labor force was 5.1%, of which the unemployment rate of the migrant agricultural household registration labor force was 5.0%, and the average weekly working hours of the employees in enterprises nationwide was 48.6 hours.
Judging by this data, the unemployment rate has fallen, and the economy is recovering well. However, another set of data has made some people more anxious:
In 2023, there will be 11.58 million college graduates in mainland China. an increase of 820,000 compared with 2022; Entering 2024, the number of college graduates is expected to reach 11.79 million, continuing to reach a new high.
Through these data, on the surface, the education industry is indeed developing rapidly, and there are more and more highly educated young people in society, but this has also brought unprecedented pressure to the job market, and many fresh graduates may fall into the dilemma of leaving school and becoming unemployed.
Moreover, through Tesla's announcement a few days ago, it will lay off 14,000 employees around the world, including domestic fresh graduates who have received Tesla offers before and originally planned to graduate and are about to work. In response to Tesla's breach of the contract this time, it also indicates that the number of unemployed fresh graduates who graduate this year may increase.
In addition, data shows that in 2023, the average monthly active users of BOSS Zhipin will be 42.3 million, a year-on-year increase of 47.4%; The average daily and monthly active users reached 26.3%. Moreover, the total number of migrant workers in the country will reach nearly 298 million in 2023, an increase of 1.91 million over the previous year......
Taken together, there is a problem that may be more serious than we imagined, that is, whether it is a group of migrant workers engaged in grassroots work or college students with higher education, they are facing huge employment pressure.
The grim situation of the job market is not limited to a certain region or a certain group of people, and this momentum sweeping all over the country has made people in the industry have to worry again: "hard days" may begin!
.01
Lower income
Once the competitive pressure in the job market intensifies, the primary impact will be the decline in personal income, and I believe that many people have felt this way in the past two years. When the number of orders of enterprises declines and the money-making effect weakens, they can only save expenses and maintain operations through salary cuts or layoffs, and even stop paying performance and bonuses, and various benefits during the New Year and holidays have become fewer.
For example, in the past, many companies gave college graduates a basic salary of about 3,500, and now, this basic salary has even dropped by nearly 30%, only about 2,500.
Moreover, such a salary package also requires a single day off and overtime work continuously. Just imagine such treatment. Not to mention that it is difficult to survive in first- and second-tier cities, even in third- and fourth-tier cities, life will be particularly difficult.
But even so, many young people do not dare to leave their jobs rashly, and they still have to continue to work under great pressure, just because the employment situation is grim, and if you don't do it, there will be a new person to take over your position.
.02
Consumption downgrade
Have you found a point, after the Spring Festival, prices have risen again, in my community, for example, around the Spring Festival, the cheapest pork price is only 10 yuan, the most expensive is only 13 yuan, and now it has generally risen to 17-18 yuan, an increase of 70%.
In addition to the soaring price of meat, the price of fruits has also doubled, for example, the previous apples were 3 yuan a catty, and now there are less than 7 apples, and the cheapest ones are more than 7 yuan. There are also durians, red grapes, and mangosteens, all of which are dozens of dollars a catty, and they can't afford to eat at all.
However, in the past few months, people's income levels have not doubled with prices, and some people have even had to face salary cuts or even lose their jobs because their companies are in trouble.
Instead of increasing, income will fall, which will naturally lead to a downgrade in consumption, and everyone has no choice but to adjust their consumption habits to adapt to the new economic situation. The result?
The transfer of physical stores one by one has been closed, and many e-commerce platforms have started price competitions. To put it bluntly, it's all because everyone has no money to spend.
You always see the market buzzing in all kinds of data, but how long has it been since you left a restaurant? How long has it been since you drank and watched a movie with friends, went shopping, or even went to a KTV to relax?
To put it bluntly, there is a shortage of pocket money, and everyone is now becoming more and more "housekeeper", and what can be bought online will never pay an extra penny offline; If you can eat at home, you can't go to the restaurant; Electrical appliances and digital can never be replaced, and even what everyone didn't expect is that the post-90s, who have always advocated advanced consumption, have also begun to buy second-hand and never buy new, and everyone's quality of life has plummeted.
However, you are like this, I am like this, everyone is like this, and the business has no "way to live", so the vicious circle has quietly appeared...
.03
More and more people are doing side hustles
In the face of the severe employment situation, rising prices, and the pressure of declining incomes, more and more people have begun to increase their side jobs non-stop in order to increase their income.
I believe that all of your relatives and friends are doing side jobs, some go out to set up stalls after work, sell some snacks or gadgets, and some go out after work to run Didi, do substitute driving or food delivery, in short, if you want to maintain or improve the quality of life, you need to work a job.
Besides, if Reuters is cold-hearted, one more job for the poor, giving up part of their rest time every day, and putting in a few more hours of hard work may be a reward of dozens of dollars.
For example, some time ago, during the May Day holiday, a friend of mine did two part-time jobs during this holiday, in order to save tuition for his child, (the child failed to be admitted to a public high school, and the tuition fee for a semester at his own expense would be several thousand), and he was busy from 8 o'clock in the morning to more than 9 o'clock in the evening, without taking a day off, and earned a total of more than 600 yuan.
Listen to him, this 600 yuan is still an opportunity that he has only earned by reducing prices many times, otherwise, let alone making money, there is no chance of part-time work.
Of course, there is also good news, such as the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of this year is about 5%, which is a good start, and it should not be a big problem to complete the task of about 5% for the whole year.
In this way, it is foreseeable that the economic trend in the second half of this year should be stable and rising, and if the general environment is good, it will be helpful to increase income, improve employment opportunities, and even improve people's living standards.
However, some people believe that if you want the economy to recover rapidly, stabilizing housing prices and liberating demand is the most critical part, after all, real estate is still an important pillar industry in China, and the improvement of this field indicates that it can drive the development of upstream and downstream chain industries.
As long as the real estate economy is back on track and drives the development of various industries, everyone will have the opportunity to improve their quality of life and live a high-quality life. Do you agree with that? Agree to like!