Why are young people reluctant to pay social security, Zhou Xiaochuan pierced the window paper this time

Glacier think tank

2024-05-11 11:06Posted on the official account of Zhejiang Glacier Think Tank

Why are young people reluctant to pay social security, Zhou Xiaochuan pierced the window paper this time

Only by facing up to the deep reasons why young people are reluctant to pay social security, and reflecting on and reviewing the current social security system design on this basis, can the pension gap crisis really have the possibility of being solved.

Written by丨Zhang Mingyang

It is already a semi-open secret that young people are reluctant to pay social security.

But in public, this is still a secretive issue, and some of the limited discussions are still dominated by criticism of young people: lying flat, getting by, and lacking a plan for the future......

In some public opinion, young people's reluctance to pay social security is an irrational behavior that is irresponsible to themselves and society.

As for the underlying reasons why young people are reluctant to pay social security, they are so obscured by the so-called moral criticism, as if they do not exist as long as they are not discussed.

In short, there is nothing wrong with social security, it is young people who have problems.

Of course, the reluctance to pay social security is just a will, social security has its compulsory, most young people may not really be able to implement it, and the opportunity to practice it is more flexible workers, but this is indeed a real emotion.

Recently, Zhou Xiaochuan, former governor of the People's Bank of China, pierced this layer of window paper at a public forum (the first China Pension Forum).

Since his retirement, Zhou Xiaochuan has rarely taken a public stance on public policy, but when he speaks, he is blunt.

The last time he detonated public opinion was in February last year, the theme was still "pension gap", and the words were also very heavy at that time: "Don't think that there is still a chance to delay the pension issue, and it will be more difficult to make a choice in the future." ”

This time, different from the ridicule and criticism of young people who are unwilling to pay pensions by mainstream voices, Zhou Xiaochuan expressed recognition and empathy for young people's frustration.

Zhou Xiaochuan believes that the pressure of the pension gap is being transmitted to the younger generation, "now young people feel that even if they work more, it is difficult to buy a house, get married, and raise children, so they simply lie flat."

"From the perspective of workers, when the contribution of social security contributions is greater than the income obtained, it will naturally weaken the enthusiasm", Zhou Xiaochuan believes that under the existing nominal personal account, the individual payment is actually used to pool the fund, if the pay-as-you-go system is overly highlighted, that is, the on-the-job workers pay the pension of the current retired elderly, in the face of the rising dependency ratio, it is inevitable to dissipate the willingness of young people to participate in the system, and even intensify the intergenerational contradiction.

Zhou Xiaochuan made it very clear that young people's reluctance to pay social security is not a problem of young people, but a problem with the design of the system.

The so-called "pay-as-you-go system" is a special system design of China's social security. To put it simply, due to the times (the social security system has not yet appeared), the current retired elderly did not pay social security that year; The social security paid by young people will not go into personal accounts for future use, but will be "co-ordinated" to retirees in the current year; And when today's young people retire, the monthly pension will come from the young people at that time.

In other words, the social security that the elderly did not pay back then, resulting in a permanent lack of money in China's social security account, or a deficit, which can only be solved by relying on the "intergenerational transfer" from generation to generation.

I have discussed this issue with the elderly around me, and the elderly who are receiving pensions are extremely sensitive to this, and they cannot accept the fact that they are being raised by young people. Of course, their rebuttal is also reasonable: we contributed to the country when we were young, and our wages were very low, and there was no social security at that time, and our pension was what we deserved.

In this regard, I often say quietly: That is what the country owes you, not the young people.

There are also old people who will say that the old man has taken more pensions, isn't it just to help young people raise children, and they have the same goal, and the left pocket is in the right pocket, what can be taken care of.

I still say quietly: many young people whose parents live in rural areas and do not receive much pension at all, they have been complaining about "helping other people's parents to provide for their old age".

On this issue, the elderly, or urban retirees, are a vested interest group on the pay-as-you-go system, and their pensions are often higher than those of the young people who are working; Correspondingly, young and middle-aged people are the groups that are affected by the current system design.

The pension dilemma faced by young people (including middle-aged people) can be described as "two slaps in the face": on the one hand, they have to pay pensions for the current retirees, which leads to their inability to really have a "personal social security account" like a bank savings account; On the other hand, the fertility rate is now declining, and when today's young people get older, where will they find enough new generations of young people to pay their pensions?

Under the "belly and back enemy", many young people are naturally reluctant to pay social security, and they lack clear expectations for the future, which is just as Zhou Xiaochuan said: "If we don't know how much basic pension we can get, how can we ask (young people) not to actively participate in personal pension plans?" ”

This is, of course, a vicious circle, the more young people (middle-aged) are unwilling to pay social security, the greater the pension gap. But from the perspective of young people, what is wrong with their interests being weighed?

If you are unwilling to admit that the interests of every young person as a real individual are weighed, and you always have to rely on "collective interests" and "long-term interests" to kidnap public opinion, it is a kind of PUA. Once PUA is discovered, it is doomed to be unsustainable.

I think this is the true meaning of Zhou Xiaochuan's speech: to face up to the interests of young people and understand their trade-offs.

Zhou Xiaochuan also proposed a solution to the pension gap at this forum.

As far as the eye can see, this is the most reliable reform plan I have seen in recent years.

Zhou Xiaochuan pointed out that at this stage, more attention should be paid to the incentive of "paying more and getting more, paying more for a long time", according to this, he put forward the idea of "providing one with one" for the pension in the account, "which is equal to 100 yuan in personal storage, and 200 yuan in the final account, and use it as a base investment."

Zhou Xiaochuan's idea of "one for one for one" is partly a reference to the "401K plan" of the American pension insurance system: employees take a certain percentage of their salaries every month to deposit a certain percentage of funds into their personal accounts, and enterprises also deposit corresponding funds into the accounts according to a certain percentage.

If Zhou Xiaochuan's idea can be implemented, it will naturally break through the drawbacks of the current "pay-as-you-go system" and re-stimulate the enthusiasm of young and middle-aged people to pay social security.

To put it bluntly, young people feel that paying social security is cost-effective, transparent, and has a future, and these three are indispensable.

But Zhou Xiaochuan is vague on one key issue: if a large part of the contributions of young and middle-aged people is used to "enrich their personal accounts", young people do have a future; But who will pay for the pension gap of the current retirees?

That's what matters.

There are three ways to deal with it: immediately delay retirement; To fill the shortfall, the source of funds can be the profits paid by state-owned enterprises, or the issuance of bonds can be considered; Gradually reduce the level of pension payments, or at least freeze the annual increase in pensions.

But which of these three options is not easier said than done? Which one is not a minefield Jiaolongtan? What's more, no single solution is enough to fill the gap, and it takes three arrows to really work.

In this sense, Zhou Xiaochuan's plan is to the point, and it really solves the "motivation problem" of young people who are unwilling to pay social security, but it faces many difficulties in implementation.

Almost everyone knows the potential drawbacks of the pay-as-you-go system, but how can it be changed and abolished.

Zhou Xiaochuan's speech did not attract much public attention, one of the main reasons was that he was "robbed of the show".

At the same forum, Zhu Hengpeng, deputy director of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, made a speech that caused an uproar. He believes that the current space for social security expansion is a large number of young flexible workers, but the current participation rate of this group of people, especially the payment rate, is still low, "to mobilize the enthusiasm of young people to participate in insurance, to let them know that their own fees, parents and grandparents in their hometown can receive money."

Zhu's speech was sprayed like a sieve on social media and was seen as the latest example of PUA youth.

The only male protagonist in this article is Zhou Xiaochuan, and there is no intention to elaborate too much on Zhu Hengpeng's speech here. Although Zhu Hengpeng's plan is hardly feasible, he is at least right about one thing: in view of the unwillingness of young people to pay social security, the current social security system will not change.

Almost everyone has identified the problem, but some are reluctant to acknowledge the problem and accept any costly reforms due to vested interests (such as urban seniors with high pensions); Some people avoid problems and want to rely on PUA to get by (such as some public opinion); Some people face the problem head-on, but put forward a ridiculous plan (such as Zhu Hengpeng); Some people have proposed a plan that can cure the root cause, but it is difficult to implement it (such as Zhou Xiaochuan).

Everybody doesn't know what to do, and that's the problem.

But young people should also be satisfied, at least Zhou Xiaochuan provides emotional value.

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