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At the beginning of May, in the domestic grain market, the trend of grain prices is gradually clear, the corn market production area has limited room for further decline, the market tends to bottom, the grassroots level of the North China market is gradually decreasing, and the supply pattern will gradually reverse! However, in terms of wheat, wheat prices are under pressure, market sentiment is still fragile, demand follow-up is relatively cautious, and the supply-side pattern is relatively loose, especially when the new wheat market is approaching, the market is mostly cautious. In terms of live pigs, pig prices are showing a weak and steady upward trend, and sentiment supports strong pig prices, but the fundamentals are still poor, and the market has potential downward risks!
So, what's happening in the market? Today is May 8th, and the prices of hogs, corn and wheat are updated after the price adjustment, and the analysis is as follows:
First, the bottom support of corn is stronger, and there is not much room for further decline!
In the corn market, the May Day holiday, the corn market shows a trend of regional differentiation, the Northeast corn sideways weak and stable, the purchase and sale is slightly deserted, by the channel cost pressure and poor demand follow-up, spot corn purchase and sales are reduced, the price is stable, in particular, the regional grain source price spread is upside down, the Northeast part of the deep processing is mostly based on shrinkage or shutdown, the corn consumption level is not good, and the purchase and sales performance is cautious!
In the North China market, May Day holiday, corn spot quotation "first up and then down", however, the price center of gravity is slightly stronger, in recent days, the amount of deep processing in front of the door has decreased again, many enterprises have bucked the trend of higher prices, corn grassroots supply pressure has been reduced, the channel has a reluctant to sell the sentiment of the price, enterprises purchase on demand, continue to see the performance of the car price, North China corn has limited room to fall, the market has basically formed a bottoming trend!
Personally, the price of corn in the producing area has basically formed a bottoming trend, although, in the near future, the demand for feed and deep processing is not good, but the grassroots surplus grain is gradually bottoming out, the channel is under cost pressure, the mentality of subscribing and selling goods is not high, and the purchase and sale gradually enter the stage of pulling, the price will be short-term or will be weakly stable, the market lacks the support of big ups and downs, and the market will pay attention to the changes in the demand of traders and enterprises before the wheat harvest!
According to data analysis, from the feedback of the domestic market, in the Northeast market, the deep processing quotation is weakly adjusted, the quotation of sporadic enterprises is narrowly reduced by 0.3~0.5 points, the quotation of Fufeng, Suihua Haotian, Longfeng corn and Beijing grain Longjiang is slightly weak, and the mainstream corn quotation is stable at 1.075~1.18 yuan / catty!
In the Shandong market, the deep processing quotation is stable and strong, in Tai'an Feicheng Fukuan, Zhucheng Yuanfa, Zhucheng Xingmao, Zaozhuang Hengren, Dezhou Fuyang, Heze Chengwu, Binzhou Jinhui, Yucheng Bowling Bao, Dazecheng biological mainstream enterprises raised 0.5~1 points/jin, Shandong corn quotation in 1.095~1.205 yuan/jin!
Second, wheat prices fell sideways!
In the wheat market, during the May Day holiday, wheat prices were stimulated by favorable policies, and the price briefly rose continuously, however, the rise was a "flash in the pan", and the market gradually returned to the trend of weak operation!
At present, the wheat market is long and short concentrated, positive factors, mainly by the policy of good support, due to the temporary storage and the suspension of the rotation of grain storage, the risk of wheat selling pressure is reduced, and the supply level of old grain is significantly reduced, which has a certain support for the market!
However, the bearish sentiment in the market still exists! On the one hand, the local wheat rotation continues, and the effective supply of wheat is relatively loose, especially the low-price wheat inventory of the grain storage rotation in the early stage is loose, and the supply pattern is relatively stable; On the other hand, the demand for wheat is insufficient, the flour shipment is under pressure, the downstream orders are reduced, the mainstream flour mills continue to stop work or stop harvesting, the operating rate of small and medium-sized flour mills is low, and the consumption capacity of raw grain is insufficient; Superimposed, the new wheat listing cycle is approaching, the wheat harvest is expected to be strong, and the market is cautious to replenish the old grain mentality!
Therefore, under many factors, the wheat spot price is stable and strong, the domestic mainstream winter wheat producing areas, milling enterprises in the price range of 0.5 ~ 2 cents/jin, Shandong, Hebei and Henan, the mainstream price of wheat fell to 1.29 ~ 1.34 yuan / catty, the average price gradually bottomed out about 1.3 yuan / catty!
Personally, I believe that in the short term, the wheat market may continue to be weak and stable and volatile, and the market has limited room for further decline.
Third, the price of live pigs rose in a narrow range!
In the pig market, previously, pig prices showed a weak and stable trend, however, after the holiday, pig prices did not fall as scheduled, but the market showed a strong trend! According to data analysis, on May 8, the average price of lean pigs was 14.86 yuan / kg, the price rose 0.04 yuan from yesterday, the domestic market continued to be weak and stable, and in most parts of the north and south, the pig price rose slightly by 0.05 ~ 0.1 yuan, only in central and southern China, the price of slaughtering enterprises was stable!
At present, the pig market is showing a strong trend, I personally believe that this is mainly affected by the breeding end of the slaughter sentiment differentiation, the market has a certain price mentality, the social aspect and the lack of low price to the pig sentiment, the pig supply level is slightly tight, from the slaughterhouse procurement difficulty, Northeast, East China and Central China, slaughtering pig source to the factory is insufficient, some slaughtering enterprises are facing a certain lack of pig phenomenon, southwest and South China market, slaughtering enterprises procurement difficulty in general, market sentiment differentiation, bullish, bearish and stable mentality coexist!
Personally, I believe that supported by the price of breeding, it is expected that in the next 1~2 days, the market may maintain a steady upward trend, however, the upside is limited, and pig prices are facing downward pressure!
On the one hand, the consumption support is insufficient, the operating rate of domestic slaughtering enterprises is about 27.97%, the downstream orders of slaughterhouses are small, and it is difficult for white strips to leave the factory.
On the other hand, although the breeding end has a very high price mentality, however, due to the arrival of the rainy season in the south, the risk of pig farm disease increases, superimposed, consumer demand is in the cyclical off-season, the consumption level of fat pigs is reduced, the price difference of standard fertilizer is insufficient, and there is a certain risk of "slaughtering cattle" in the market!
Therefore, under the influence of many factors, the rise in pig prices may be difficult to sustain, the market outlook is concerned about the rhythm of the group's pig slaughter and the change in the adjustment of the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises, and rationally, pig prices are still facing the risk of falling in a narrow range!
Pig price and grain price warning! The price of live pigs, corn and wheat after the price adjustment on May 8! What happened? What do you think about this? The above is the author's personal opinion, the picture comes from the Internet!