Corn is up again, isn't it surprising? The policy grain has been stopped, why hasn't the wheat risen?

Corn is learning to be a pig, playing the game of "ephemeral frequency", it rose for a while, rose for a few days and fell again, and then fell again after a few days.

It's not surprising that this is going to be put in the field of pigs, because I've long been used to it, but the corn is not yet adaptable, especially after the corn goes down again after the holiday, and the mood falls to the ground again, but I didn't expect it to rise again in a blink of an eye.

Surprised? Not surprised?

Don't worry, because there are many more "accidents" to come!

The first is that the signal that corn has bottomed out is getting stronger.

Although the corn market looks tepid on the surface, it is actually a mystery.

Although the market has been saying that corn has fallen almost, but after all, there is no exact signal, most of them are guesses, but not long ago corn also fell into the "1 yuan era", so the market is not a score, and it is basically useless to speculate on subjectivity.

But with this fluctuation of corn, the signal of bottoming out is becoming clearer and clearer.

In fact, most areas stabilized during the May Day period, but only Shandong reacted violently, and the reason has been said several times before, so I will not repeat it here.

However, after a few days of falling, it immediately rose, which also shows that the resistance of the main body of grain holding to continuous price reduction is very strong.

Although it soon fell back again, it immediately rose again, indicating that the market game is intensifying, the corn bottoming signal is getting stronger, and the space for subsequent declines is really limited.

Second, as the right to food gradually shifts, corn will become stronger and stronger.

Corn was fragile before, of course, now, but as the purchase and sale are nearing the end, after the transfer of grain rights, the main body of trade has a stronger ability to respond to changes in the market, and the corn purchased in the early stage, including the comprehensive cost, is not low, so with the transfer of grain rights, corn will behave more and more firmly.

But I didn't say that I wanted to rise, and I didn't dare to say that I wanted to rise, because the demand side was still tepid, although the demand for deep processing was OK, but the pressure of goods was gradually emerging, and some enterprises were tired of raw grain, so the enthusiasm for acquisition also declined.

And the pig price is still the same, and it fell again after the holiday, so the feed companies are still stable and small.

Corn can't be circulated, so it's still very difficult to rise.

Third, the policy may be "hands-on".

Wheat has risen, and everyone knows that this is a policy force. After the two "stopped shooting" were issued, the supply of wheat was at least nearly half, and the mountain that had pressed on the wheat before was immediately much easier.

And corn is basically the same as wheat, that is, only the policy can save the corn, so the market is also looking forward to it, and the spring breeze of the policy will blow to the North China market as soon as possible.

Before May Day, in fact, the rumors in the market have been flying all over the sky, but can it be landed after the holiday? Let's wait and see.

Fourth, and more "unexpectedly", at the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter, corn is expected to rise.

This is mainly based on the trend of the breeding end and the substitution of shrinkage.

It can be seen with the naked eye that although the pig price performance of this May Day is mediocre, it is significantly better than Qingming, coupled with the frequent decline in pig prices in April, and there has been a continuous rise on May Day, but the magnitude is not large, but this shows that the pig market is repairing quickly.

On the other hand, the price of pigs fell so much in April, and the enthusiasm of the second fattening and pressure fence was lost, so many big pigs were squeezed out, and it also made room for the follow-up market.

The demand side of wheat prices are high, basically out of substitution, and the import of corn has also been clearly restricted, it is not ruled out that the follow-up will also limit the amount of imported grain substitution into the market, so corn has basically entered a stage of demand repair.

After a long period of grinding and with the hog market improving, corn is expected to catch this ride.

Although the corn market is still very chaotic after May Day, it is like the darkness before dawn, and it may be light if it survives.

The policy grain has been stopped, why hasn't the wheat risen? Where's the stuck

This May is indeed unusual, and it is always "full of strange things".

Wheat finally stopped falling and rose again under the boost of policy news, but this momentum was also hot for three minutes, and it fell again after a few days.

We have also analyzed before that the stop shooting of reserve wheat was on May 6, so the shooting has not been completely stopped during the May Day period, so the supply has not completely declined, and some storage points are still working overtime to produce grain.

But now it's after the festival in a blink of an eye, and according to policy information, this part of the wheat has also begun to stop filming. But what is strange is that the supply is declining, why is there no increase in wheat for a long time?

Some friends said that because you forgot to mention the local reserves, the central reserve wheat did stop shooting, but the ground reserves did not stop, and with the central reserve wheat stopped shooting, the grain supply of wheat in the market will mainly rely on two major ways:

One is the ground storage of wheat, and the other is the trade of wheat.

At this time, it is not ruled out that the ground storage of wheat will also seize this opportunity to speed up the rotation action, which will also increase the market supply, thereby suppressing the wheat market.

But I think that's only part of the reason, and the bigger reason is emotional.

In other words, even the two stoppages have not changed the market's bearish sentiment on wheat.

Why?

The first is the increasing expectation of a bumper wheat crop.

Although there are many weather changes during the May Day period, no one knows how much this weather change will affect the yield and quality of wheat.

Or rather, the weather impact is an occasional event, while the bumper yield is a high probability event, so under this expectation, the market is pessimistic about the wheat market.

Although the central reserve wheat has been suspended, the new wheat harvest relay, and the market supply is not a lot.

Second, there are more distant concerns for trade players.

That is, the central wheat reserve is only temporarily suspended to make way for the wheat harvest, not the end of the auction, which means that after the wheat harvest is over, the auction is likely to be restarted.

After two years of beating, the current trading body is not only considering the issue of acquisition, but also the issue of selling, and thinking more long-term.

In other words, only when the problem of selling is solved, can you dare to accept it with confidence.

Under the overall pessimistic mood, the market is also obviously not enthusiastic about Xinmai.

Third, the game between all parties has intensified.

Although the market does not deny that the new wheat cannot be used immediately after the harvest due to the late ripening period, the demand for old wheat will increase at this time.

But even so, there are still land reserves that continue to be auctioned, which also gives enterprises more choices. And enterprises are not stupid, they know how to weigh the pros and cons of costs.

In addition, if the local reserves take the opportunity to step up the auction, it is likely to grab the bowl of rice for trade grain.

Therefore, the more I think about it, the more I feel that this is a sad story, so there are not a few people who take the opportunity to run away.

But in fact, this is also a reflection of the instability of the market, which is that the market is very fragile, so fragile that any piece of news may cause it to reverse again.

For example, although wheat is expected to be more pessimistic, it is undeniable that after the two "stoppages", the circulation of wheat in the market will be greatly reduced.

In addition, the regional imbalance of wheat is a cause for concern.

The supply of stale wheat in various regions is unbalanced, and supply and demand may not be able to match just right, so this also leaves an opportunity for stale wheat.

In addition, the policy of "stopping the shooting" of wheat, its intention is very clear, that is, to escort wheat, including this year's pre-procurement and two-way purchase and sales have increased significantly, which is also to build a bottom for wheat, so the downward space of wheat is shrinking, and the opportunity for old wheat is increasing.

Corn prices

The national average price of corn (feed raw materials) was 2439 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from yesterday.

Prices are indicative only and are not intended as a basis for investment and trading

region	Provinces	05-07	05-06	较Yesterday
East	Anhui Province	2700	2738	-38
Shandong Province	2324	2335	-11
Zhejiang Province	2580	2580
Jiangxi Province	2870	2350	520
Fujian Province	2350	2350
Jiangsu Province	2300	2300
Shanghai	2554	2554
northwest	Xinjiang	2400	2417	-17
Shaanxi Province	2350	2325	25
Gansu Province	2300	2300
Qinghai Province	2037	2030	7
Lingxia	2375	2360	15
Central	Henan Province	2507	2433	74
Hunan Province	2515	2505	10
Hubei Province	2650	2600	50
North	Beijing	2461	2461
Tianjin	2300	2300
Shanxi Province	2350	2350
Hebei Province	2418	2406	12
Inner Mongolia	2380	2228	152
South	Guangxi	2400	2400
Guangdong Province	2384	2384
Hainan	2652	2613	39
northeast	Liaoning Province	2376	2378	-2
Heilongjiang	2300	2300
Jilin Province	2400	2380	20
southwest	Sichuan Province	2603	2655	-52
Guizhou Province	2751	2751
Yunnan Province	2510	2515	-5
Chongqing Municipality	2407	2407