For a long time, the Sino-Indian border issue has been a core issue for the two countries, with more than 100,000 troops on both sides at the peak of the border area, and about 50,000 to 60,000 troops deployed on both sides of the border at present. However, just recently, Indian Defense Minister Manmohan Singh said that progress had been made in the border talks, and on the other hand, he also threatened not to bow to China, but hoped to be friendly with China.
On April 29, according to the Russian "Sputnik" news agency, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said at a rally in support of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party in Ahmedabad that "India is no longer a weak country, India is a strong country in military terms." At the same time, he expressed the desire to maintain good relations with neighboring countries. In addition, he said that the talks with China are going smoothly and that any emerging issues are being discussed in a good atmosphere. But then he also said he "assures our compatriots that India has not bowed its head anywhere and will never do it".
Why does India maintain a tough stance on the border issue? To a large extent, it has to do with Modi's attitude in power since he came to power. Before Modi came to power, India was not united, some states did not recognize the Indian government's governance, and even a few states became breeding areas for armed forces. Since Modi came to power, uniting states to consolidate Modi's regime has become a top priority, and promoting national cohesion has become a direct and effective way.
For example, the localization of military equipment advocated by the Modi government has indeed increased Modi's approval rating a lot, but the actual effect is not satisfactory. On the Kashmir issue, Modi's tough measures against Pakistan have also increased Modi's approval ratings. Now India has set its sights on China, and has begun to challenge it in all its political, military, cultural, and even economic aspects.
It can be seen that the Indian government is trying to increase its prestige by creating a focus, but it will also encounter backlash from such a focus at any time. Once Modi bows his head on the border issue, then Modi's ruling career will be over, which is one of the important reasons why India has repeatedly taken a tough line on the border issue. However, border issues cannot be increased without a ceiling, and when they do not work, they can turn into conflicts. So, on the border issue, the Modi government is playing with fire.
However, China is not Pakistan, and Pakistan is fighting back and forth with India in Kashmir despite its backward equipment, so what reason does India have to believe that it will take advantage of the border areas? First of all, in terms of geographical environment, India does not have the ability to provoke on the border issue. Starting in October every year, there will be heavy snow closure in the border area between China and India, and the closure will last until March of the following year, which means that there are almost five months of a year in the heavy snow closure season.
What is even more embarrassing is that India's projection capacity is relatively weak, and the support infrastructure in the rear is relatively backward, with an average of dozens of casualties caused by bridge collapses, helicopter crashes, avalanches, and extreme cold every year. It can be seen that even if there is low-intensity friction in the border area, it is difficult for India to carry out delivery guarantees, and it seems that if it wants to survive, it can only become a prisoner of the PLA.
Second, from the perspective of equipment, India cannot be compared with China, the most important reason is that India's self-sufficiency rate of domestically produced equipment is too low, and even the most basic infantry light weapons need to be purchased. For example, in 2021, India and Russia officially signed a contract to set up a factory in India to produce the first batch of 500,000 AK203 rifles. Another example is that in 2020, the Indian Ministry of Defense approved a contract for the purchase of 22.9 billion rupees of equipment, one of which is the purchase of 72,000 American-made Sig-Sauer assault rifles.
In terms of high-tech weapons, India also relies heavily on procurement; more than 95 percent of the army's armored weapons are Russian-made equipment, and the Air Force's tactical aircraft are mainly Russian-made equipment; India's 40-year-old glorious light fighter has been painstakingly developed, but it has not been able to fully equip it for a long time, and it is still in a state of low-speed production. As the saying goes, national defense equipment cannot be bought for modernization, and once a war breaks out, it means that there is one less piece of equipment, which greatly limits India's war potential. On the other hand, the PLA's advanced equipment in service has been completely independently designed and built.
From the above two points, it can be seen that India does not have the conditions to provoke in the border areas, and if the Modi government continues to increase the burden in the border areas, the final bitter fruit of the conflict caused by its unilateral provocations can only be swallowed by the Modi government.
In fact, India and China have a wide range of scope for cooperation, such as on climate change, the "strangulation war" waged by developed countries against developing countries. The Modi government wants to boost its economy and become a manufacturing powerhouse to feed its 1.4 billion people, and the climate problem cannot be bypassed in any way. However, India has to face the fact that India is currently home to 22 of the world's 30 most polluted cities, making it the most polluted country in the world. India wants to become a manufacturing powerhouse, and the huge power gap means that the proportion of thermal power generation in India will further increase in the future, and its climate problem will face more severe challenges.
In addition to the current climate issues, India and China have deep cooperation in many fields such as economy and energy, and if India insists on provoking disputes in the border areas, perhaps Modi will face more than just defeat.