Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost the House of Representatives by-election held a few days ago. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida responded that he would take the result seriously, but he had no intention of dissolving the House of Representatives and holding an early general election.
Screenshot of Japan's Kyodo News report
To add insult to injury, the yen's recent decline against the dollar has reduced consumer purchasing power and severely affected daily lives, slowing down corporate investment and production, and dealing a heavy blow to the already sluggish Japanese economy.
At the same time, the approval rating of the Kishida cabinet has also been hovering at a low level.
"I can't buy cheap things anymore"
Japan's House of Representatives held an election for three seats to fill vacancies on April 28, and Fumio Kishida's Liberal Democratic Party lost all three battles, losing the seats previously held by the Liberal Democratic Party.
This by-election to the House of Representatives is Japan's first parliamentary election since the "black gold" scandal was exposed by the Liberal Democratic Party, and it is of significance for observing the direction of Japan's political situation in the next step.
Public opinion generally believes that the defeat in the by-election highlights the Japanese people's dissatisfaction with the Liberal Democratic Party and casts a shadow on the prospects of the Kishida cabinet to govern.
Screenshot of the Associated Press report
The LDP's decline has been evident in recent polls.
According to the latest poll results released by Japan's Mainichi Shimbun on April 21, about 62% of respondents hope that Kishida's Liberal Democratic Party will step down after the next House of Representatives election.
A poll released by the Japan news agency on April 28 also showed that as many as 40% of voters wanted Fumio Kishida to step down "as soon as possible".
Screenshot of a report by the Japanese news agency
According to a report by Nihon Keizai Shimbun on May 1, the results of public opinion polls in April by major Japanese media showed that the approval rating of Fumio Kishida's cabinet did not reach 30%. The disapproval rate is as high as 50% to 70%. Among them, the results of a poll by the NHK showed that the approval rating of the Kishida cabinet was 23%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from March.
According to the analysis, the reasons for the widespread dissatisfaction of the Japanese people are concentrated in two aspects.
The first is that the "black gold" scandal was exposed within the Liberal Democratic Party in November last year, and the Japanese people's disappointment with the Liberal Democratic Party has deepened, and the prime minister's handling of the situation has not been satisfactory.
"Mainichi Shimbun" reported: According to the poll, seven out of ten respondents said that the "Kishida faction" was involved in the scandal, but Kishida himself was not punished, which is "unacceptable".
Another reason is the current economic downturn. One of the most striking examples of this is the yen, which has been weakening recently.
According to Japanese media reports, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar in the overseas foreign exchange market fell below the 160-to-1 mark on April 29, once again refreshing the lowest record since April 1990.
Screenshot of a report by the U.S. Consumer News & Business Channel
Nobuhiko Hiwara, an associate professor at the Business School of Waseda University in Japan, believes that for Japan, which mainly relies on imports for energy, clothing, ores, food, and many other categories of goods, the depreciation of the yen will further raise prices and cause inflation in the short term; in the medium and long term, the market will attract a number of foreign direct investment, resulting in more Japanese enterprises being acquired by overseas enterprises, and this will bring about fundamental changes in the Japanese economy.
Affected by the depreciation of the yen, there has been a significant wave of price increases in Japan since April. More than 2,800 kinds of food products have risen in price, among which the price of processed food has risen most significantly, some meat products have increased by 25%, and the price of daily necessities such as toilet paper has also risen sharply, increasing the burden on the Japanese people.
In the words of the Japanese people, "I can't buy cheap goods anymore."
Screenshot of the "Japan Times" network report
As for the Japanese stock market, which seems to be performing well, some analysts believe that most of the people who buy Japanese stocks are actually foreign institutional investors, and the Japanese people have not become more wealthy.
In addition to the rapid depreciation of the yen, some long-standing structural problems of the Japanese economy have not been eliminated, such as the persistent deficit in trade in goods and services. According to the analysis, the general trend of Japan's economic contraction is difficult to change due to complex social problems.
Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) released a forecast in late April that Japan will be overtaken by emerging market countries by 2040 if the "lost 30 years" state continues.
Screenshot of the Asahi Shimbun website report
"It was a decisive mistake"
Faced with a worrying economic outlook, the Japanese government should have taken strong measures to deal with it, but the Kishida cabinet did the opposite, going further and further down the road of strengthening the military and expanding its armed forces.
At the end of March, the House of Councillors of the Japanese Diet voted to approve the budget for fiscal 2024. Among them, the defense budget is 7.9 trillion yen (about 368 billion yuan), an increase of about 16.6% from fiscal 2023 and a record high. This is also the 12th consecutive year that Japan has increased its defense budget.
Screenshot of Japan's Kyodo News report
The new "three security documents" adopted by the Japanese government at the end of 2022 state that Japan's total defense spending will be increased to about 43.5 trillion yen (about 2 trillion yuan) in fiscal years 2023-2027.
In addition, the Japanese government plans to increase the defense budget to 2% of GDP by fiscal 2027, a radical change from the 1% ratio that has been implemented since World War II.
Such huge military spending is bound to crowd out the government's spending on social security and other aspects, and the Kishida cabinet also intends to increase taxes to protect defense spending, which has caused widespread dissatisfaction among the Japanese people.
Minoru Morita, a well-known Japanese political commentator, criticized that the Japanese Government's choice of "reckless use of force" was a very serious mistake.
Minoru Morita: "Japan is in a difficult situation right now, with a serious declining birthrate, economic stagnation, and soaring prices...... It would be a decisive mistake to do this at a time when the situation is very dire on all fronts. Fumio Kishida and other LDP politicians should calm down and return to reason. ”
In addition to increasing military spending, Japan is also significantly strengthening its military alliance with the United States, including strengthening cooperation in joint research and development of defense equipment.
Commentaries in the Japanese media pointed out that other countries, especially those in the Asia-Pacific region, are worried about this, and there are also voices of opposition in Japan. The arms race will not lead to a bright future.
Screenshot of NHK report
Fumio Kishida said on April 30 in response to the defeat in the by-election that it is necessary to deal with the problems one by one, come up with solutions, and take responsibility accordingly.
But the key is whether he can really realize the problem and change his course!