What signals do important meetings focusing on the economic situation send?

【Dahe Finance Cube Reporter Duan Weiduo Zhu Juan】

On April 30, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting. The meeting analyzed and studied the current economic situation and economic work, and reviewed the "Opinions on Several Policies and Measures on Continuously and Deeply Promoting the Integrated and High-quality Development of the Yangtze River Delta".

Focusing on the economic situation and economic work, what development signals were released by this meeting? What is the progress of related work in Henan? Dahe Finance Cube reporters interviewed a number of experts.

The economic situation in the first quarter was more positive and optimistic

"The meeting believes that since the beginning of this year, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, all regions and departments have worked hard to grasp the economy, consolidate and enhance the economic recovery trend, increase positive factors in economic operation, continue to enhance momentum, improve social expectations, and solidly promote high-quality development, showing the characteristics of rapid growth, structural optimization, and good quality and efficiency, and the economy has achieved a good start. ”

Expert interpretation: Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said in an interview with a reporter from Dahe Finance Cube that in terms of situation judgment, this meeting emphasized that the economic rebound is "consolidating and strengthening" and "increasing positive factors in economic operation", which is more positive and optimistic than the Politburo meeting in December last year that "the mainland's economy is picking up and high-quality development is being solidly promoted".

This mainly refers to the year-on-year GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first quarter of this year, which is not only better than the market consensus expectation, but also higher than the actual growth rate of 5.2% for the whole of last year and the annual economic growth target of about 5.0% for this year. Since the beginning of the year, external demand has picked up, the new quality productivity field represented by the high-tech manufacturing industry has grown rapidly, household consumption, especially service consumption, has continued to recover, and the steady growth policy has driven the growth rate of infrastructure investment to maintain a high level, forming an effective hedge against the adjustment of the real estate industry, and stabilizing the momentum of macroeconomic recovery.

However, the meeting once again pointed out that "the economy still faces many challenges in the sustained recovery and improvement, mainly due to the lack of effective demand, the greater pressure on business operations, the risk and hidden dangers in key areas, the domestic cycle is not smooth enough, and the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment have increased significantly." "This means that although the economic performance in the first quarter exceeded expectations, the current economy is still facing some downward pressure, and macro policies need to continue to maintain a steady growth orientation. To this end, the meeting pointed out that in terms of policy, it is necessary to "avoid tightening before and loosening later, and earnestly consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery" and "make efforts to effectively implement the macroeconomic policies that have been determined".

Henan situation: Since the beginning of this year, the province has anchored the "two guarantees", continued to implement the "ten strategies", and promoted the "ten major constructions" as a whole, and the foundation of "stability" has been continuously consolidated, the momentum of "progress" has been continuously enhanced, the "good" trend has been continuously consolidated, and the economic development has achieved a "good start".

The second quarter is a critical period to determine the economic trend of the whole year and achieve the expected annual target. Recently, the General Office of the Provincial Government issued the "Several Measures to Ensure the "Double More Than Half in the Second Quarter", proposing to accelerate the realization of a qualitative breakthrough in the conversion of old and new kinetic energy, highlighting the "three major projects" in the field of large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in and real estate, to ensure the realization of the "double more than half" in the first half of the year, and clarified 28 specific measures to promote the construction of "two cities and one valley", improve the innovation platform system, enhance the innovation ability of enterprises, and vigorously develop science and technology finance.

Hu Meilin, director of the research department of Henan Provincial Project Promotion Center and senior economist, said in an interview with a reporter from Dahe Finance Cube that in the second quarter, major policies such as ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, a new round of large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods formulated by the state will be implemented on the ground, which is an important window period for the concentrated release of policy dividends. It is suggested that all localities should seize and make good use of this major policy opportunity, accurately grasp the direction of national policy guidance and financial support, find the entry point, combination point and convergence point with the development needs of cities and counties themselves, take the initiative to make efforts to move forward, follow up services in a timely manner, formulate detailed implementation plans, improve supporting policy measures, and ensure that they grasp the initiative of development and strive for better results.

Develop new quality productive forces in accordance with local conditions

There are 20 laboratories in Henan Province

The meeting stressed the need to develop new quality productive forces in accordance with local conditions. It is necessary to strengthen the layout of national strategic scientific and technological forces, cultivate and expand emerging industries, advance the layout and construction of future industries, and use advanced technology to empower the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. ”

Expert interpretation: Yang Chang, chief analyst of the policy team of Zhongtai Securities Research Institute, said that the content emphasized at the above meeting shows that there is clear policy support for scientific and technological innovation and the development of new quality productivity, and the mention of "adapting measures to local conditions" is conducive to the targeted development of characteristic industries and regional development advantages in combination with local conditions.

Situation in Henan: On April 29, the first meeting of the Science and Technology Committee of the Provincial Party Committee was held to listen to the reports on the construction and operation of 20 provincial laboratories and 6 provincial industrial technology research institutes, and to study and deploy relevant work.

The reporter learned that the provincial laboratory is the main force in Henan to overcome key core technologies and produce first-class innovation achievements, aiming to contribute to the construction of modern Henan. Since July 17, 2021, the first provincial laboratory in Henan, Songshan Laboratory, has been unveiled, and in more than 2 years, the construction of laboratories in Henan Province has achieved remarkable results, and a total of 20 provincial laboratories such as Songshan Laboratory and Shennong Seed Industry Laboratory have been unveiled.

From the beginning of their establishment, these provincial laboratories have shouldered the mission of "standing up to the sky", adhered to the "two-wheel drive" of scientific and technological innovation and institutional innovation, and became an innovation highland for Henan to build a national innovation highland and a national important talent center, and connect with the national strategic scientific and technological forces.

In addition, since the inauguration of Henan Flexible Electronics Industry Technology Research Institute on July 10, 2023, up to now, Henan Province has established a total of 6 provincial industrial technology research institutes.

In recent years, the Henan Provincial Party Committee and Provincial Government have put innovation at the logical starting point of development, implemented the strategy of innovation-driven, rejuvenating the province through science and education, and strengthening the province with talents, created a first-class innovation ecology, and taken the road of innovation-driven development. In addition to continuously building and improving the "echelon" of the provincial laboratory and the provincial industrial technology research institute, Henan has rebuilt and revitalized the Provincial Academy of Sciences, and a large number of provincial industrial research institutes, provincial pilot bases, and provincial innovation consortiums have accelerated their construction. Leading industrial innovation with scientific and technological innovation, improving and upgrading traditional industries, cultivating and expanding emerging industries, advancing the layout of future industries, actively cultivating and developing new quality productivity, realizing advantage reengineering, and accelerating the transformation of kinetic energy.

Build a new model of real estate development

Henan has intensively implemented a number of policies

The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to continue to prevent and resolve risks in key areas. We will continue to adhere to city-specific policies, consolidate the responsibilities of local governments, real estate enterprises, and financial institutions, and earnestly do a good job in ensuring the delivery of housing to protect the legitimate rights and interests of home buyers. It is necessary to combine the new changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market and the new expectations of the people for high-quality housing, coordinate the study of policies and measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize the incremental housing, and pay close attention to building a new model of real estate development to promote the high-quality development of real estate. ”

Expert interpretation: "Continuing to look at real estate from the perspective of risk prevention means that all the work in this area must be carried out around 'how to prevent systemic risks from occurring'." Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, said that at present, the price of second-hand housing has fallen more than that of new houses, impacting the pricing system of new houses, and new house sales are facing challenges. In March, the national real estate removal rate was generally around 30%. The top priority is to "flood the flood" of the massive second-hand housing inventory.

According to the latest statistics from the China Index Research Institute, since last year, more than 40 cities have supported the "trade-in" of commercial housing. In Li Yujia's view, "trade-in" is not an opportunity to go to inventory and tail goods, but to let "new" buyers see that the new house to buy is a good house that can really improve their living.

Situation in Henan: Recently, Henan has done a good job in ensuring the delivery of housing and promoting the high-quality development of real estate, and has been taking continuous actions.

Focusing on the real estate "white list" system, in mid-April, many districts in Zhengzhou organized banks and enterprises to sign contracts to inject financing "living water" into the real estate enterprises of the "white list" projects, promote the implementation of the real estate financing coordination mechanism, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

Focusing on "exchanging the old for the new", on April 1, Zhengzhou took the lead in carrying out the work of "selling the old and buying the new, and exchanging the old for the new" in the real estate market among key cities in the country. Since the launch of the pilot project on April 20, it has received positive response and participation from the general public and real estate enterprises. As of the afternoon of April 29, more than 30,000 people have consulted policies and inquired about information, and have signed up to participate in the acquisition of 441 households by the Urban Development Group, 224 houses that meet the conditions for the acquisition of the pilot stage, and have completed the on-site inspection and price evaluation of 108 sets of housing, and have signed 80 sets of "second-hand housing intention acquisition agreement" after negotiation, and 571 commercial housing projects for sale in the main urban area of Zhengzhou City are displayed on the information platform, of which 59 existing houses can provide 11,966 sets of high-quality existing houses for the masses. At the same time, the masses are also promoting "selling the old and buying the new, and exchanging the old for the new" through market-oriented transactions. On the whole, the market has responded positively to the "selling the old and buying the new, and exchanging the old for the new" activities of real estate.

Focusing on the "business-to-business" of the housing provident fund, Zhengzhou announced the detailed rules, clarifying that the "business-to-public loan" business will start from May 6 this year, and the application objects for the business-to-public loan are the local and non-local housing provident fund contributors who have used commercial loans to purchase self-occupied housing in the administrative area of Zhengzhou, including employees who have paid for flexible employment.

In addition, in the past year or so, Zhengzhou's real estate favorable policies have been frequent, in addition to the above aspects, there are also the complete cancellation of housing purchase and sale restrictions, the minimum down payment ratio of commercial personal housing loans for the first house is uniformly adjusted to not less than 20%, and the minimum down payment ratio of commercial personal housing loans for the second set of housing is uniformly adjusted to not less than 30%.

Editor-in-charge: Wang Shidan | Reviewer: Chen Xiaojuan | Review: Li Zhen | Supervisor: Wan Junwei