Last night, Cialis released its annual and first quarter reports. Annual report, I'll take a good look at it during the May Day holiday. In this article, let's talk about the first quarter report. In the first quarter of 2024, Sailis achieved an operating income of 26.561 billion yuan, which happened to fall within the range of 24.5 billion to 27 billion yuan estimated by me on April 2, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 220 million yuan, which also happened to fall within the range of 2 to 590 million yuan.
Yesterday because of the turnaround "jubilant", today because the stock price opened high and went low "depressed", many people have experienced such a "fire and ice". Based on my years of investment experience, investment requires a normal heart of "not being happy with things and not being sad about yourself". In 2021, I once bought a stock called Blum Oriental, which rose by 40% in 15 trading days.
Taking this example as an example, I want to tell you that the ups and downs of one day or two, even the most extreme up and down limits, have no indicator significance, but they are just stock price disturbances caused by the inflow and outflow of some funds, and in the long run, they will not affect the evolution of the trend.
Let's get back to the point, let's explore the Q1 2023 report.
1. 20% gross profit margin
I have said more than once that the gross profit margin of Cialis cannot simply refer to the experience before the third quarter of 2023.
To estimate the gross profit margin of Cialis in the first quarter of 2024, it is necessary to understand two points: first, the company's gross profit margin will increase with the increase in automobile sales, and second, the gross profit margin of the ideal car that is benchmarked against Wenjie will not be less than 20%. On the basis of the above two points, I built a gross profit margin estimation model of Cialis, and the estimated result was 20.38%, but the actual result was 21.52%, which is obviously an underestimate of 1%.
This underestimation of 1% will be taken into account when estimating the results of the second quarter in the future.
2. Fees
(1) Sales expenses. The selling expense ratio for the first quarter of 2024 is about 12.82%, and my estimate is 11.79%, which is about 1% underestimated. In the future, when estimating the results of the second quarter, we will adjust the estimation principle of consumer expenses. First, the channel expenses are estimated at 8% of the operating income, the second is the publicity and distribution expenses are estimated at 8% of the operating income and not more than 1.2 billion yuan per quarter, and the third is the other expenses are estimated at about 100 million yuan per quarter.
(2) Management expenses and R&D expenses. The actual situation is slightly different from what I expected. Originally, I thought that the technology licensing fee, which accounts for 2% of the revenue, should be included in the "management expenses" account, but in fact, it is more likely to be included in the "R&D expenses" account. As a result, "management expenses" are overestimated and "R&D expenses" are underestimated. For the sake of convenience, the management expenses and R&D expenses are combined, and the calculation formula is "operating income ×2%+8.74".
(3) Financial expenses. The financial cost is about the same as estimated, that is, about 0.
To sum up, the sum of management expenses, management expenses, and R&D expenses is underestimated by about 1.5%, and the gross profit margin is underestimated by 1%.
3. Summary
To be honest, I like to make predictions in advance and then test my forecasts with real financial reports, so that I can know what I'm doing wrong and update and improve my next forecast.
During the May Day holiday, I will take a good look at the annual report and wish you all a happy holiday!