On 25 April, the commander of the Southern Theater of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and the commander of the Pacific Maritime Region of the French Army held talks, and the two sides signed a document establishing a mechanism for inter-theater cooperation and dialogue between the two armies. But almost at the same time, France also sent warships to participate in the "shoulder-to-shoulder" exercise jointly conducted by the United States and the Philippines. The purpose of the exercise is to deter China and try to seize China's sovereignty in the South China Sea. Which play is this in France?
It is understandable that the French Government is cautious about its relations with China. Once the second-largest colonial power in Europe after Britain, France once occupied large colonies in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, including Vietnam, a country bordering the South China Sea. To this day, France has a number of island-sized overseas territories in these two oceans, with an exclusive economic zone of tens of millions of square kilometers. Although no country is currently interested in these overseas provinces of France, and no one intends to launch a national liberation movement in these places, France, as a Western country that is declining more and more, is uncertain whether it will be able to keep these remaining colonies, especially in the face of China. The French have not forgotten the scene of being ousted from Vietnam in the 60s of the last century.
Therefore, not to offend China is an important principle for France in handling foreign relations. However, France did not dare to offend the United States, because today the entire Western imperialist system is maintained by the United States, and without the United States, Britain and France would not be able to support the situation. In Libya, Britain and France ran out of ammunition depots after only a few days of air raids, and in the end it was the United States that came to the rescue. If the United States does not give up, France will simply lose its colonies and spheres of influence. The recent incident in the African country of Niger is a case in point.
This is the reason for the recent "horizontal jump" in France. On the one hand, it does not dare to go against the will of the United States and take part in some military operations organized by the United States, and on the other hand, it seeks some ostensible independence. For example, in the Red Sea to intercept the Houthi missile, France only sent the frigate Alsace, and the warship went to sea for a total of 70 days before returning home. On the surface, France's move is irrational, not only failing to buy enough favors from the United States, but also offending the target that the United States wants to attack. But the fundamental reason is that France's strength and ambition are incompatible. France does not want to draw a clear line with the United States, but also does not dare to completely offend China, so while participating in the "shoulder to shoulder" exercise, it also establishes a dialogue mechanism with the People's Liberation Army (PLA). As a matter of fact, with France's military strength today, even if it sends all its naval forces to East Asia, no matter which side it sides, it will not have a decisive impact on the situation in the Asia-Pacific region. France can only use something formal to find its own existence.
This is not a bad thing for China. After all, France has strategic nuclear forces and has a certain influence in Western countries. The establishment of a naval hotline between China and France will play a certain role in dividing the NATO bloc, so that the United States will be somewhat restrained and have more scruples when organizing a global anti-China coalition. For example, if the U.S. military wants to pull the French army into a military operation against China in the Indo-Pacific region, the French military and the PLA can exchange information through this mechanism, the French army will receive some guarantees for the safety of warships and personnel, and the PLA will be able to learn about some relevant trends, and both sides will have their own interests. Although this will make the United States very unhappy, the world is so complicated, and NATO, led by the US military, and the Western camp led by the United States, are not monolithic. If the United States is not worthy of Germany, the US military can only be restless.