Zhou Yang, Zhang Ziyang, Zhou Xuyang
On April 20, 2024, the U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass an aid bill to Ukraine worth more than $60 billion, which also includes the liquidation of seized Russian assets and their transfer to Ukraine. Previously, from 2021 to 2022, the US leadership had been implementing a huge and expensive aid package to the Kyiv regime. Since the conflict began more than two years ago, the United States has provided Ukraine with about $111 billion in weapons, equipment, humanitarian assistance and other forms of support, and Washington hopes to continue to provide such assistance. What is the purpose of this kind of "help"?
The United States has extended a "helping hand" to Ukraine.
Figure 1 Mike Johnson at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., April 20, 2024. Photo by Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA
On April 20, 2024, in a bipartisan vote in the United States, 210 Democrats and 101 Republicans jointly supported aid to Ukraine, while 112 Republicans voted against. Previously, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson forced the bill in the face of strong opposition within the party, although many expressed opposition to increasing defense spending on Ukraine.
In addition, lawmakers are voting on a nearly $95 billion package for multinational aid, which is divided into four separate bills. The House of Representatives also passed an easy vote on the bill to provide additional funding to Israel, with 365 votes in favor and 57 votes against (36 Democrats and 21 Republicans). The bill is expected to use $95 billion, of which about $61 billion will be used to support Ukraine (mostly U.S. ammunition supplies), $26 billion is scheduled to provide support to Israel, $8 billion will be used to enhance the security of U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific region, and $9 billion in humanitarian assistance for civilians in war zones such as Haiti, Sudan and Gaza. However, the package also prohibits the U.S. government from providing direct funding to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), which provides critical aid primarily in the Gaza Strip, until March 2025.
In the Ukraine aid package, about $23 billion from the total $60.7 billion package is used by the United States to replenish its military stockpiles, which opens up the possibility of future transfers of military equipment to Ukraine. In addition, $14 billion will be earmarked for the Ukraine Security Assistance Program, through which the Pentagon will procure advanced weapons systems directly from defense contractors for use by the Ukrainian military. The bill also allocates more than $11 billion to support U.S. military operations in the region, bolster Ukraine's military and facilitate intelligence sharing with Washington. In addition, about $8 billion in non-military aid will help the Ukrainian government maintain essential state functions, such as paying public officials salaries and pensions. In an effort to soften opposition from some Republican lawmakers, the plan specifically sets $10 billion as a conditional loan to be repaid by Ukraine. This reflects the impact of the foreign aid proposal passed by the Senate earlier in February.
These seem to be the "help" extended by the United States to Ukraine, but in fact they are hidden mysteries.
Is it a "helping hand" or a "round hand"?
From the escalation of the Ukraine crisis in February 2022 to September 2023, the United States has provided approximately $76 billion in military, humanitarian, and financial assistance to Ukraine. This aid is funded both from defense stockpiles and from federal budgets, partly through congressional approval and partly from government executive acts. In addition, the U.S. Congress appropriated $4.65 billion through the Foreign Military Funding program, which allows Ukraine or U.S. allies to provide subsidies or loans for armaments. U.S. government foreign arms sales to Ukraine and direct commercial arms sales to U.S. companies also reached $600 million each. The Pentagon's announcement of $600 million in military aid comes a day after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a surprise visit to Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, during which he pledged to provide more than $1 billion in aid to Ukraine.
As of September 8, 2023, U.S. military assistance to Ukraine exceeded $43 billion. In total, the U.S. Department of State has authorized more than 14,000 entities in the U.S. to provide military-grade weapons and equipment to foreign governments such as Ukraine.
Figure 2 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with U.S. President Joe Biden
In the past, the United States was playing a "round hand" with the Ukrainian side, using aid as a skin, and the actual assistance was very little. The U.S. government and Department of Defense announced on March 12, 2024, that the U.S. will urgently provide approximately $300 million worth of military assistance to Ukraine. Although the U.S. military claimed at the time that this part of the funds came from the surplus funds of the U.S. Army's procurement contract for Ukraine. However, the American "Politico" website found a "small problem" on the 25th, that is, the money had been spent four months ago. An anonymous official told Politico that the $300 million announced was part of the U.S. Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) pool, but in November the U.S. Department of Defense ran out of funds for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. Officials said the $300 million proposed by the U.S. Department of Defense will be included in the $1.2 trillion government appropriations package signed by U.S. President Joe Biden last Saturday, but other budgets, including this fund, have not yet been approved by Congress.
US Defense Department officials have a new explanation for this, saying that the sources of the "$300 million" are mixed and miscellaneous, and the authenticity is difficult to scrutinize. U.S. officials said at the time that this part of the funds came from the savings from the U.S. Army's procurement of contracts to aid Ukraine. The Associated Press noted that the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) allows the U.S. government to enter into long-term contracts with military-industrial enterprises to purchase weapons to aid Ukraine instead of using existing stockpiles. The Pentagon has saved about $300 million in some of those contracts, the officials said. However, an anonymous official interviewed by the "Politico" website had a different statement, saying that the $300 million announced by the US Department of Defense this time will be included in the $1.2 trillion government funding package signed by US President Joe Biden last Saturday, but other budgets, including this fund, have not yet been approved by Congress. In a statement, the Pentagon confirmed that it had exhausted all the pools of the Ukraine Security Assistance Program a few months ago. The Pentagon noted that in November last year, the United States allocated $300 million under a new military aid package to purchase new weapons for Ukraine, but last year's $300 million "depleted the remaining funds that the U.S. military can currently use to support Ukraine."
The US aid could not stand up to scrutiny, and it played a "round hand" of "positive statement" and "long-term commitment". The website "Politico" commented that even with this money, it will not be able to turn the tide of the war. Rather, it is a gesture by the U.S. government: a gesture that proves that the U.S. is not out of the conflict, even though House Republicans have been dragging on the $60 billion military aid bill for months. Some U.S. lawmakers told the "Politico" website that even if the U.S. military can't afford the $300 million, at least this is a positive statement. Rep. Jason Crowe, Democrat of Colorado, said, "This shows a longer-term commitment, which is a positive thing, but the short-term problem we face is that Ukrainians still need our support right now." ”
The United States reaches out to help?
The United States has played a "round hand" with Ukraine in the battlefield between Russia and Ukraine to seek benefits, and the performance of the Ukrainian army is closely related to the interests of the United States. The better the Ukrainian army performs on the battlefield in Ukraine, the more it can prove the correctness of Biden's support for the Ukrainian army, and the more Biden and the Democratic Party will accumulate advantages in the election. The U.S. aid bill for Ukraine and other countries has been deadlocked for more than half a year under the bipartisan battle in Congress. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy recently warned that a lack of U.S. aid would cause Ukraine to "lose this war." After the U.S. Congress voted on the aid package for Ukraine on April 20, Ukraine will regain large amounts of aid. In order to prove that the aid they have received is worth it, the Ukrainian army may relaunch its offensive once some aid is in place.
In order to promote the bill, the Democratic Party played a "round hand" with the Republican Party, making concessions in the conflict of interests and reducing the pressure of voting. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson split the multinational aid bill into four in order to give staunch far-right members of the Republican Conference a chance to vote individually on the parts they don't support, according to their "conscience." The purpose of the move is to reduce the pressure on the Democratic Party to vote and get more votes to pass the bill. After the bill passed the House of Representatives, President Biden said the vote demonstrated a bipartisan determination among lawmakers to advance national security interests and a clear demonstration of U.S. leadership on the global stage. He stressed that the passage of the bill was a historic victory and the result of his efforts over several months.
Figure 3 U.S. President Joe Biden Data map Source: foreign media
The Russian side pointed out that the "round hand" between the US and Ukraine is only in the interests of the ruling party. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova responded to the US bill on the 21st, saying that the United States does not expect Ukraine to win, and the aid to Ukraine is only to let the Ukrainian army hold on to the US election in November, so as not to "damage the image of US President Biden". Whether it is Zelensky's "warning of defeat", or the division of the bill into four to advance the vote, or President Biden's speech after the vote to show the results, it shows that the ultimate purpose of this bill is not to provide humanitarian support to Ukraine, not to seek justice for the Ukrainian people, but to be a tool for President Biden of the United States to compete in the November election. From a vertical perspective, this bill is a continuation of Biden's high approval rating implemented by Biden democrats in the United States, and a means to maintain Biden's administration.
Moreover, the bill passed this time is not only related to foreign aid, but also other bills that are conducive to Biden's election victory. The bill covers border security legislation in addition to multinational aid, which, as expected, failed to pass. Many far-right Republicans are reluctant to see the Biden administration get credit for resolving the U.S.-Mexico border crisis in an election year, especially against the backdrop of a surge in the number of asylum seekers in the region, to avoid gaining more popular support. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is trying to make border security one of his election issues.
In addition, there are very few elements of the US "round hand" that can be called aid, and the US side squeezes benefits from aid. Taking Ukraine as an example, there are about $61 billion in the bill related to aid to Ukraine, but only $9 billion will be allocated to Ukraine as economic aid, and it will be in the form of loans, and the remaining huge amount of money is "subsidies" from the United States to its own arms dealers, including replenishing US ammunition stocks and "purchasing" American-made weapons for Ukraine. In February this year, Johnson's "idol" Trump relented on the issue of aid to Ukraine, suggesting aid to Ukraine "in the form of loans rather than gifts", and at the same time, the Democratic Party also agreed to write the Republican Party's demands into the bill, such as offsetting the US aid funds for Ukraine with seized Russian assets, which made Johnson and Republican conservatives change their attitude. In other words, the bill was the product of a bipartisan compromise. Before the bill passed, Republican ultra-conservative Congressman Marjorie Taylor Green had threatened Johnson to dare to support the passage of the bill, and she would submit a motion to remove the speaker, but some American media pointed out that since Johnson received Trump's support, the trigger conditions for the speaker's recall motion have become quite difficult. Second, the reason why the bill is more symbolic is also related to the spending funds approved by the House of Representatives, as the provisions disclosed in the bill suggest that this money is not so much to aid the authorities in Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan as to feed back to American arms dealers.