Zhang Ziyang, Zhou Yang, Zhou Xuyang
At the beginning of this year, according to a number of media outlets, some units of the Russian army began to use Elon Musk's Starlink satellite system for combat and various military missions. Probably due to the pressure of public opinion and the position of the United States, Elon Musk has denied that SpaceX provides services to the armed forces of the Russian Federation for military purposes. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the United States, from the government to the entity, has imposed severe and comprehensive sanctions on Russia, while Russia, the Russian military can still use the United States civilian service for hostile purposes in 2024, which is a question worth thinking about in itself.
Civilian "big take", "good hand" in aid
Starlink is a low-orbit Internet constellation program proposed by SpaceX in 2014, which can further improve the accuracy and anti-jamming ability of the U.S. military's navigation and positioning system, and can be used for direct collision interception of intercontinental ballistic missile warheads, which can effectively promote the seamless switching between military communication networks and commercial communication networks. The goal is to build a space-based communication system with global coverage, high capacity, and low latency, and to provide high-speed Internet services around the world. Its role is not only to provide high-speed, reliable Internet connectivity for people around the world through the network built by launching satellites, but more importantly, to seize and compete for orbital resources on a global scale, making it difficult for other countries to gain satellite advantages, especially in low-Earth orbit.
The Starlink system continues to expand and evolve. In January 2015, Musk, an American space exploration technology company, announced that SpaceX plans to launch about 12,000 communication satellites into orbit, of which 1,584 will be deployed in low-earth orbit 550 kilometers above the Earth, and will work from 2020. The project was named Starlink. On June 5, Musk unveiled the Starlink launch plan, and the company plans to launch a series of experimental low-Earth orbit communications satellites starting in 2016 to test the technology of the company's earlier announced future low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation. SpaceX will apply for experimental Ku-band communications licenses for two spacecraft, named MicroSat-1a and MicroSat-1b, scheduled to launch with Falcon 9 in 2016, in a May 29 filing with the Federal Communications Commission. The two satellites will operate in low-Earth orbit at a distance of 625 km.
The Starlink system has gradually developed a considerable number of satellites and provided services to other countries. Since the launch of the first batch of 60 Starlink satellites by SpaceX on May 24, 2019, a total of 1,942 satellites in 35 batches have been launched by the end of 2021. After 2022, the company will carry out a launch plan of 30,000 second-generation Starlink satellites, and the launch plan will be changed from Falcon 9 rocket to Starship. After several rounds of scheme changes and adjustments, Starlink plans to plan three phases of the system as of the beginning of 2022, with a total scale of nearly 42,000 satellites. In January 2024, local media reported over the weekend that Elon Musk's SpaceX could receive approval to launch its Starlink satellite internet service in India "in the coming days."
According to Reuters and the Wall Street Journal, on February 11, 2024 local time, the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine said that there is evidence that Russian forces are "systematically" using the Starlink service of the American company SpaceX in Russian-controlled Ukrainian territory. In response, SpaceX boss Elon Musk said that the company has never sold "Starlink" terminals to Russia. According to the report, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine posted a recording of a conversation purportedly between Russian soldiers on social media. In the 15-second recording, one person says in Russian that "Starlink is working, we have internet (access)".
A spokesman for the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine issued a statement saying that the Russian army is "systematically" using the "Starlink" terminals, which are being used by units such as the Russian 83rd Air Assault Brigade, which are operating near the towns of Krischivka and Andriivka in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine. The statement does not mention how the Russian army obtained these terminals, for example, from abroad, or captured from the Ukrainian army.
A small satellite, a big "attack" effect
The successful application of "Starlink" in the Ukraine crisis has further strengthened the determination of the US military to accelerate its militarization process, and the military application of "Starlink" has become increasingly prominent. At first, the original intention of the American SpaceX company to carry out the "Starlink" project was for civilian commercial purposes, but now the space field is more and more valued by the military, and space in the past was positioned as a strategic support field, and now it has become an important support for great power competition and national security strategy.
Relying on "Starlink", many strategic ideas and strategic advantages have been born, serving wars, and militarization strategies have emerged in an endless stream. Relying on the characteristics of "Starlink" that are not affected by terrain and environmental factors, a new military communication ecosystem has been built, and a three-dimensional, motorized, and multi-dimensional integrated information network has been built. "Starlink" breaks through the functions of traditional space equipment, including communications, remote sensing, navigation, positioning, strategic missile early warning and other functions, in addition to a certain offensive capability, can actively attack the enemy's spacecraft, as an anti-satellite weapon, damage or destroy enemy satellites. In addition, the successful addition of "Starlink" to the U.S. military's battle management system will be conducive to U.S. military operations. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, SpaceX and USAID have jointly delivered about 5,000 Starlink terminals to Ukraine, providing Ukraine with "unlimited and unrestricted data connectivity" and strengthening the Ukrainian army's information combat superiority to a certain extent. "Starlink" not only provides satellite communication services for Ukrainian GIS artillery units, enabling them to communicate and transmit high-bandwidth data through the Russian defense line, but also provides targeting and communication services for Ukraine's elite drone unit Aerorozvidka to attack the Russian army.
On the one hand, it eliminates the asymmetry of the conflict, and on the other hand, Russia itself has the hard power to interfere with and shield the "Starlink", which has undoubtedly become an advantage for Russia. In fact, we know that Starlink shut down services in Russia, but only in Russia itself, and in the event of a conflict, this is something that SpaceX is difficult to distinguish. However, the Russian side must realize that once this application incident is exposed, it has to think that the flow of data from these terminal devices must be to the US company SpaceX, which is a strategic partner with the US military. If the coordinates of the important positions of the Russian side are leaked, the losses caused will outweigh the losses. These risks need to be seriously considered, and if the use of high-ranking officers is leaked, the Armed Forces of Ukraine can use the obtained data to deliver pinpoint strikes with high-precision weapons and decapitate regiments, brigades, divisions of the Russian Armed Forces. Or, Ukraine can choose to ignore it in the short term, wait until the Russian side makes a wrong decision on the safety of the use of "Starlink", the use of large-scale use, and when a sufficient number of important location coordinates are confirmed, Ukraine can launch a massive destruction strike, after all, counteroffensive operations are vital to Ukraine, which is exactly the bargaining chip he has in his deal with Western countries.
Sanctions 1,000 articles, 100 leaks
Why can Russia still use Starlink satellite terminals despite all-round sanctions imposed by the United States? The root cause of this lies in the sanctions loopholes of Starlink satellite service providers.
After the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, SpaceX quickly shut down its services throughout Russia, but this does not include disputed or warring areas such as the Black Sea, Crimea and Donbass. Aside from the civilian use of satellite terminals in Russia, Russian forces fighting in Ukraine and disputed areas can still use Starlink services. At the same time, the Ukrainian army, which is highly dependent on the intelligence support of the United States and NATO, cannot completely detach itself from the support of Starlink satellite technology, so the difficulty of the United States to shut down Starlink satellites in the "disputed area" has increased sharply. To put it simply, due to the limitations of combat space and equipment characteristics, advanced technologies such as Starlink have fallen into the embarrassing situation of "providing services" for both sides at the same time.
Reaching the current "embarrassing situation" is even beneficial for Russia. Russian analyst Andrei Mitrofanov pointed out that if Starlink satellites do not sanction Russia and expand their service scope to the entire territory of Russia instead of just in the disputed areas on the front line, more targets in Russia's interior will be directly exposed to the threat of Ukrainian drones and cruise missiles;
Through the current situation, it can be seen that under large-scale sanctions, there are always some institutional loopholes that can be exploited. This is especially true in the emerging high-tech industries, where there is no experience with the system. Traditionally, the means of picking up local equipment to attack the enemy during combat are now unsafe due to various means of treacherous mines, but their ideas can be applied to new equipment and new industries. Under certain circumstances, it is still possible to "feed the enemy".
Concentrated on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, due to the similarity of the combat equipment links of the Russian army and the Ukrainian army, it is convenient for them to integrate the Starlink satellite system into their own equipment; secondly, the equipment that integrates the "Starlink" can be disguised as the equipment of the Ukrainian army, and launch unexpected attacks at the right time and place on the battlefield. In addition, because the Russian army has the means to crack the captured "Starlink" system, it can use the integrated accusation information system of the Ukrainian army to predict the attack of powerful weapons such as "Hippocampus" and "F-16 fighters" to a large extent, and reduce its damage effectiveness.
The idea of the Russian army using the "Starlink" system is a major attempt by the Russian army to take advantage of the loopholes in the opponent's system, and such a strategic bold idea has had a huge impact on the current operational guidance of the armies of various countries. Will there be any other unexpected operations after Starlink? Time will tell.