Jinxin Futures Review: Oil and fat continued to fluctuate at a high level, and eggs continued to soar higher with vegetable prices

Stock index: The Shanghai index lost its hope of 3600 points, and the three major stock indexes fell across the board

In terms of the index, the A-share shock weakened on Tuesday, the Shanghai index lost hope of 3600 points, the three major stock indexes fell across the board, and the small-cap stocks fought against each other. In terms of sectors, electronics and non-ferrous metals rose in the front, Apple and Tesla concept stocks were active, the new energy sector rose and fell, while real estate, home appliances and insurance adjusted. Market trading sentiment heated up, the transaction amount of the two cities exceeded 1 trillion yuan for three consecutive days, and northbound funds bought net for 6 consecutive days. In terms of premiums, the premium structure of stock index futures continues to differentiate, if the premium expands, the IH premium narrows, the IC discount shrinks, the IF premium is 7.70 points, the IH premium is 2.56 points, the IC premium is 38.83 points, and the short-term market sentiment is more repeated. Operation suggestion: From the perspective of the disk, the appreciation of the renminbi has led to the continuous inflow of northbound funds, but the market hotspots are scattered and lack of sustainability, so that the index continues to adjust, and the overall A-share maintains a volatile rotation. At the macro level, the recent upward pressure on commodity prices has eased, the domestic policy changes have been more positive, while the marginal relaxation of macro liquidity has been supported by the trend of stock indexes. It is expected that the trend of short-term stock indexes is biased towards shocks, the risk of a big fall is small, and the follow-up is waiting to break through the previous shock range. The Shanghai index continues to focus on 3600 points. (The above views are for reference only, investment is risky, you need to be cautious when entering the market)

Ore: Ore futures rose today

Recently, Shanghai Steel Federation released production demand data, this week's thread production of 2.7277 million tons, down 37,800 tons from last week. The aggregate output of the five major varieties of steel fell by 351,100 tons. Iron ore as a whole is still in an environment of weak demand and stable supply. Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released real estate data, from January to September, China's crude steel, pig iron and steel production was 805.89 million tons, 671.07 million tons and 102035 million tons, respectively, an increase of 2%, down 1.3% and 4.6%. Among them, domestic crude steel, pig iron and steel production in September were 73.75 million tons, 65.19 million tons and 101.95 million tons, down 21.2%, 16.1% and 14.8% respectively year-on-year. The average daily output of crude steel, pig iron and steel in September was 2.4583 million tons, 2.173 million tons and 3.3983 million tons, respectively, down 8.45%, 5.82% and 3.17% respectively from August. It can be seen that pig iron production is declining, and the corresponding ore demand is also declining, while the current supply side of iron ore is relatively stable. We believe there is limited room for further rebound in ore, and we suggest that we can go short on highs. (The above views are for reference only, investment is risky, you need to be cautious when entering the market)

Threads: Thread futures are rising today

Recently, Shanghai Steel Federation released production demand data, this week's thread production of 2.7277 million tons, down 37,800 tons from last week. Thread apparent demand was 2.9137 million tons, down 323,500 tons, and demand weakened significantly. Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released real estate data, China's 1-9 months, the national real estate development investment 112568 billion yuan, an increase of 8.8%; an increase of 14.9% over The 1-9 months of 2019, an average increase of 7.2% in two years. Recently, the real estate industry is still weakening, and the area of new construction that has the greatest impact on black has declined year-on-year, which is bearish for threads. After the golden nine silver ten, the traditional off-season of rebar is coming. In addition, after the National Day, some of the steel mills that have completed the dual control of crude steel production and energy consumption in stages have begun to resume production, and on the whole, the resumption of electric furnace production accounts for a large proportion, and the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of electric furnaces in East China have rebounded significantly. For thread futures, we still recommend going short on the highs. (The above views are for reference only, investment is risky, you need to be cautious when entering the market)

Bifocal: Wide range oscillation

Coking coal closed flat at 2950.5 yuan / ton, and coke closed up 2.98% at 3790 yuan / ton. There has been no response from steel mills to the increase in spot coke. Recently, the Ceke and Erenhot ports have been closed due to the impact of the epidemic, and the traffic volume of the Ganqimaodu port today exceeded the level of 400 vehicles, but due to the changes in epidemic prevention policies, the recent traffic volume may fall in the short term. Overall, the fundamentals of the current supply and demand tension of bifocals have not changed significantly, the spot does not have the basis for a sharp correction for the time being, the price discount on the disk is large, and the pessimism caused by the risk of coal policy is fully released or returns to strong fundamentals, and coke is relatively less affected than coking coal. It is expected that the short-term shock adjustment, the operation is recommended to wait and see, focusing on low and many opportunities. (The above views are for reference only, investment is risky, you need to be cautious when entering the market)

Glass: After a rapid decline during the day, it began to rebound, and the tail turned red

Most areas of the float glass market continue to move downward. Some manufacturers in the Shahe market have launched preferential policies for some specifications, and the prices of some enterprises in the central, east, south and southwest markets have been reduced to varying degrees, the downstream orders are not good, the reception sentiment is weak, and the procurement operation is just needed. In terms of supply, Guangdong Yufeng Glass Group Co., Ltd. resumed production of 700 tons on the 24th. At present, the demand is difficult to improve, and the overall market may continue to be weak trend Operation strategy recommends multi-glass empty soda ash. (The above views are for reference only, investment is risky, you need to be cautious when entering the market)

Soda ash: fluctuates sharply during the day, falls sharply, and then starts to rebound

It is rumored that the bidding price of building materials is still at a high level of 3600 yuan. The domestic soda ash market is running steadily, the sentiment is general, and the downstream procurement remains cautious due to the recent impact of futures price trends. At present, the Lianyungang device has resumed production, Henan Junhua driving time is delayed until the end of the month, anhui Debang is expected to start running on the 26th. Enterprise shipments are normal, order execution is the mainstay, and individual enterprises still do not receive new orders. The operation strategy recommends that soda ash be held short. (The above views are for reference only, investment is risky, you need to be cautious when entering the market)

Methanol: Expected to continue the bottom shock run

Today's port spot and mainland spot prices continue to decline, of which Taicang 3060 (-105); last week's Zhuo Chuang port inventory of 960,000 tons (-11.7), the port still has a phenomenon of port delay, but the spot price fell in the context of the downstream willingness to pick up goods, the port went to the warehouse sharply; last week, the inventory of mainland enterprises was 6.42 (+0.25) days, continuing to accumulate slightly. Under the influence of the policy, the price of thermal coal continued to fall. Operation suggestion: Under the background of the sharp decline in methanol prices in the early stage, the willingness to receive goods downstream has rebounded, and the MTO device and acetic acid device have rebounded slightly, paying attention to the subsequent receipt of goods. In the fourth quarter, the maintenance progress of domestic and foreign gas head devices is still the focus of attention, and the maintenance of southwest air head devices is concerned. In the morning, methanol prices fell sharply in the afternoon, spot was affected by the decline in the disk to follow the downward trend, short-term market sentiment is still pessimistic, but the domestic coal-to-methanol profit fell sharply or led to an increase in maintenance devices this week, pay attention to domestic device dynamics. The short-term cost side of the downward shift of the spot market sentiment is weaker, is expected to continue the bottom shock run, the reference range of 3040-3300. (The above views are for reference only, investment is risky, you need to be cautious when entering the market)

Asphalt: Sharply up in the afternoon and expected to be stable overall

Saudi Arabia and Russia's cautious approach to supply boosted oil prices; market news followed that Iran's upcoming talks with the European Union were a matter of market attention, which could allow the 2015 nuclear deal to resume and crude oil prices to rise and fall. Last week's EIA inventory report showed that gasoline inventories plunged by 5.368 million barrels and refined oils plunged 3.913 million barrels in the week ended October 15, indicating an increase in demand; in addition, crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell, with inventories in the largest crude oil storage site in the United States hitting their lowest level in three years. Intraday U.S. crude oil prices fluctuated widely, but asphalt rose sharply in the afternoon, and the supply and demand side did not change significantly in the short term, and the main upward driving force was the repair of asphalt prices. Recently, the price of asphalt futures relative to crude oil trend is weak, the weak supply and demand side continues to suppress asphalt prices, the main domestic refineries have lowered spot prices, and the profits of Shandong refining asphalt plants have fallen again, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. Short-term cost support but weak supply and demand, it is expected that the overall asphalt is stable, the reference range is 3120-3240.(The above views are for reference only, investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market)

Oils and fats: Palm oil production recovered less than expected, and oils and fats continued to fluctuate at high levels

Today's U.S. crude oil rushed higher and fell back, and U.S. soybean oil and U.S. beans stopped falling and rebounded. Rains and cooling will come from the Midwest of the United States, which is not good for the soybean harvest. Domestic oil and fat stocks as a whole continued to decline. Short-term thinking: October-November is the traditional Malay production increase season, Malay high-frequency data also shows that production shows a slow recovery trend, but India's continuous reduction of tariffs and other factors, so that September-October exports are optimistic, U.S. beans ushered in harvest pressure, U.S. beans curry ratio bottomed out, the U.S. market short-term lack of bullish themes. Domestic soybean oil inventory will come to the seasonal inflection point, oil supply and demand gradually turned loose; but the current absolutely low spot inventory to support the oil and fat basis to maintain a high level, while the "energy crisis" and other external factors, to vegetable oil to bring marginal benefits, the recent north China power rationing, resulting in soybean oil supply expectations are tight. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see in the near future, and be cautious to short the 15 spread on the high. Pay attention to The Malay labor issues and the progress of the HARVEST of U.S. beans. (The above views are for reference only, investment is risky, you need to be cautious when entering the market)

Eggs: Follow the vegetable prices continue to soar

Today's recent monthly futures price continued to soar, and the national egg price continued to rise. Recently, due to the rise in coal prices and the rapid alternation of autumn and summer, vegetable prices have risen rapidly, and the Shouguang vegetable index has been at the highest level in the same period of history, which is beneficial to egg consumption. Egg spot starts to rise seasonally. This week, the pig price stopped falling to continue the weak rebound, the national average price rebounded to near 16 yuan / kg, the price of wool chicken fluctuated at a high level, the price of eliminated chicken was weak shock, and the overall price of animal protein stabilized and rebounded. Operation suggestion: Fundamentally, in April and May of the following year, the chicks will be produced in September, and the supply will gradually turn into a loose pattern, but after the double festival in October, it is expected that there will also be a concentrated elimination of old chickens, but the overall profit is driven by breeding profits, and it is difficult to have a big drop in the stock. Demand gradually transitioned from the off-season to the peak season after the double festival this month, and spot has begun to rise seasonally. The recent rebound in the price of corn and soybean meal on the feed side continues to drive the cost of breeding higher. In terms of operation, the overall strength of bulk agricultural products in the recent past, the cautious number of eggs, and the short moon in the medium term. Pay attention to the recent spot prices of eggs and the prices of broilers and pigs. (The above views are for reference only, investment is risky, you need to be cautious when entering the market)

Corn and starch: Wheat stocking decreased, and corn futures prices continued to rebound

This week, the domestic market is mainly up, and the inventory in the sales area is low. U.S. corn edged up on crude oil and U.S. beans. USDA October supply and demand report, the U.S. corn yield of 176.5, higher than the market expectation of 176, higher than September 176.3, corresponding to the carry-over inventory rose to 1.5 billion pu, higher than the market expectations, the U.S. corn coffers bottomed out, but recently the market began to worry that due to the sharp rise in urea prices, there may be more corn in the new year to change soybeans. Operation suggestion: domestic new works are about to usher in the peak of listing, the middle and lower reaches of the mostly wait-and-see, the domestic harvest of this year has been determined, but the current overall inventory of domestic trade corn is not high, especially the current north China inventory is low, out of consideration for the new old corn connection, there is a possibility of replenishment, but subject to production profit restrictions, it is difficult to have a large number of replenishment actions, short-term North China to stop falling and rebound, the weather has an adverse impact on harvesting, there are concerns about the phased supply, gas short-term policy pressure increases, or will drive marginal commodities back down. Be cautious about buying corn at a low price, or choose the opportunity to make a shrinking starch-corn plate spread. (The above views are for reference only, investment is risky, you need to be cautious when entering the market)

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Liu Wenbo Investment Consultation No. Z0015179, Yao Xinghang Investment Advisory No. Z0015370, Sheng Wenyu Investment Advisory No. Z0015486, Wang Zhiping Investment Advisory No. Z0015287, Ding Li Investment Advisory No. Z0015520.

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