Recently, the waters of the South China Sea have started to roll again. The Philippines and China have a new dispute over a small reef in the South China Sea. No, the new government of the Philippines has overturned the previous tacit agreement and stirred up a pool of spring water. The attitude of both sides is evident in this matter so far, and the development of things continues. Would you like to find out what is going on?
At the end of March this year, the South China Sea issue has been a hot topic between China and the Philippines. Originally, during the Duterte administration, there seemed to have been a verbal gentleman's agreement between China and the Philippines aimed at maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea. This was also confirmed by the Chinese side at the time.
But in mid-April, the new president of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., changed his attitude after taking office, publicly denying the existence of the agreement, and even putting the blame on his predecessor Duterte, claiming that he had no idea of such a thing. Marcos Jr.'s attitude is not only surprising, but also makes things more complicated.
This blatant denial by the Marcos Jr. administration clearly makes China unhappy. In a statement on April 18, the Chinese ambassador to the Philippines pointed out that in the early part of this year, the Philippines and the Philippines reached an agreement through diplomatic channels on the issue of transportation and replenishment of Ren'ai Jiao, but the Philippine side once again reversed itself and unilaterally tore up the agreement. This incident is not isolated, and it reflects a sharp shift in foreign policy since the Marcos Jr. administration came to power.
Next, things get more complicated. The Philippine Department of Defense rushed to speak out on April 27, while Marcos Jr.'s civilian government chose to remain silent. The contrast between this silence and the positive statements of the Ministry of Defense suggests that there may be a bitter power game going on within the Philippines. And behind this game, it is not difficult to see the shadow of the United States.
Behind this dispute, there is more than just a scramble for a reef. At a deeper level, this is part of the balance of power and geopolitical game between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea. The "new model" mentioned by China in its statement was essentially aimed at maintaining stability and peace in the region, but now that effort appears to be being challenged by the capriciousness of the Philippines.
China's response strategy is also clear, not only through official channels in an attempt to expose the inconsistent behavior of the Marcos Jr. government, but also to compare such behavior to similar events in history. For example, China has taken tough measures in the border dispute with India and in the border conflict with Vietnam. Although the change in attitude towards the Philippines has not yet reached the point of military confrontation, it is already evident that the pressure will be increased through diplomatic and public relations means.
As time went on, the development of the situation in the South China Sea became more confusing. There has also been a rift over Marcos Jr.'s policies in the Philippines, with some political analysts and former government officials publicly criticizing the Marcos Jr. administration's foreign policy, arguing that it is too reckless and detrimental to the country's long-term interests. This internal instability could have far-reaching implications for the Philippines' future foreign policy.
At the same time, China is stepping up its diplomacy with other countries bordering the South China Sea, trying to isolate the Philippines by strengthening regional cooperation in response to the Marcos Jr. administration's provocations. This includes strengthening economic and security cooperation with countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia. Such a move is not only a response to the current dispute, but also a preparation for a possible long-term confrontation.
Against this complex international backdrop, the next steps of the Marcos Jr. administration are in the spotlight. Whether they will continue to adhere to the current hard line policy, or make some adjustments due to domestic and foreign pressures, will have an important impact on the future situation in the South China Sea. This is not only about peace and stability between China and the Philippines, but also about the entire Asia-Pacific region.
In this tug-of-war, every move of the parties is magnified and interpreted, and every negotiation has the potential to change the balance of the situation. The South China Sea, an ancient and young body of water, is being swept up in the whirlpool of an international drama, and the world is closely watching every fluctuation here.