All statements in this article are based on reliable information, and the sources are detailed at the end of the article
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the mainland imported a total of 22.1 million tons of natural gas in the first two months of this year, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%.
What is different is this: in February this year, Russia surpassed Turkmenistan for the first time to become the mainland's largest exporter of pipeline gas.
This is another huge breakthrough in the energy cooperation between China and Russia.
However, as the cooperation between China and Russia in the energy field gradually deepens, it is inevitable that there will be differences between the two sides in the negotiation process of new projects.
International energy trade is often susceptible to profound changes in the international situation, but it is still essentially a commercial trade and needs to follow the basic principles of international trade.
What concerns does the Russian side have about us in the subsequent negotiations on cooperation on new projects, and how can we strive for the maximum trade rights and interests within the basic trade principles?
1. China-Russia energy cooperation has made steady progress
According to the data, the total bilateral trade between China and Russia reached 240.111 billion US dollars last year, a year-on-year increase of 26.3 percentage points.
This is a direct result of the steady progress of bilateral practical cooperation between China and Russia, especially when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has lasted for more than two years.
Not only that, but the enthusiasm for people-to-people exchanges between China and Russia has also become increasingly high with the prosperity of bilateral trade.
Relevant data show that in the first three quarters of last year, the number of Chinese tourists traveling to Russia reached 105,800, accounting for nearly a quarter of the total number of tourists visiting Russia.
When it comes to Sino-Russian trade cooperation, energy trade has always been regarded as the "ballast stone" of Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation.
Relevant data show that Russia's total exports to China reached 129.14 billion US dollars last year, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%.
About 70 percent of exports to China are energy, such as oil and extracts, coal and natural gas.
Russia's crude oil exports to China have reached 100 million tons, ranking first among China's petroleum product importers.
Not only in the field of energy trade, but also in the deepening of cooperation between China and Russia in the fields of food security, green development and financial connectivity.
The strong complementarity of the bilateral trade structure between China and Russia has been further revealed.
However, when China-Russia cooperation touches on each other's core interests and concerns more and more frequently, we should also be vigilant against some erroneous perceptions in the internal and external environment that are not conducive to the future development of China-Russia cooperation.
2. Misconceptions about Sino-Russian cooperation
Since the Russian State Duma passed the bill on approving the Sino-Russian agreement on gas supply cooperation on the Far East route in May last year, China and Russia have been at odds in negotiations on the construction of the "Power of Siberia-2" pipeline project.
The problems are mainly focused on the transit of third countries and the price of natural gas.
The long-term stagnation of cooperation projects can easily lead to suspicion, and there are also some misunderstandings about Sino-Russian project cooperation within the Russian side, or subjectively throwing the "pot" of slow negotiation progress at us.
Recently, the Russian media "Viewpoint" quoted Yushkov, a domestic energy expert, as saying that the reason why Turkmenistan has long been higher than Russia in pipeline natural gas exports to China is actually the so-called "Turkey's acceptance of China's harsh conditions."
In his opinion, Turkmenistan finally accepted a "quite favorable" gas price for us in order to be able to export pipeline gas to the mainland as soon as possible.
It also agreed to use the proceeds from natural gas exports to repay the infrastructure construction loans given to it by the mainland in the early stage.
As early as 2006, the mainland signed a contract with Turkmenistan for the development of the "China-Central Asia Natural Gas Pipeline".
The project is divided into four ABCD lines, of which the earliest Line A was ventilated in 2009, while the last Line D is still under construction.
This time, Russian energy experts exaggerated the so-called "Turkey's acceptance of China's harsh conditions", with the aim of satirizing the mainland's price reduction actions in the negotiations on the "Power of Siberia-2" pipeline project.
In fact, Russia has no right at all to make unwarranted accusations against the cooperation agreements reached between other countries.
What's more, in any trade negotiation, the operation of both parties to strive for their own maximum interests based on their own circumstances is undoubtedly the most basic principle in business negotiations.
If the seller believes that the buyer's offer is too low, then it has every right to refuse to conclude the transaction, just as we charged Turkmenistan interest on the infrastructure loan upfront, and the parties have fulfilled the rights and obligations of the contract as a result of the endorsement of the country's sovereign credit.
In fact, Turkmenistan is not the only country that exports natural gas to the outside world, and there is no need for Russia to "avenge its grievances".
Just by stepping on "competitors" to show their abilities, it seems somewhat low-level.
Judging from the current process of negotiations between China and Russia on the "Power of Siberia-2" pipeline, at least Russia, which is now mired in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, is more anxious than us to reach a relevant cooperation agreement.
It is reported that the "Power of Siberia-2" pipeline is designed to deliver more gas per year than the "Power of Siberia" and the "Far Eastern Gas Supply Pipeline" combined, and the success or failure of the project is crucial for Russia's economic development.
3. Conflict may become a "catalyst" for cooperation
According to estimates, the "Power of Siberia-2" project will create an annual profit of more than 10 billion dollars for Russia.
However, taking into account the cost of gas and the need for a strategic balance of energy, the mainland will not easily compromise with the Russian side.
In the next stage, China and Russia will continue to play a game over the division of labor in pipeline construction and the price of natural gas, after all, a deal is a deal, and the cooperation between the mainland and Russia is not charity.
Although in recent years, China and Russia have achieved fruitful results in practical cooperation in various fields.
However, under the complex and severe external environment, China-Russia cooperation has also encountered unprecedented development resistance, especially the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is profoundly affecting the basic pattern of global trade.
The economic sanctions imposed by the United States and Western countries at any cost have almost completely cut off all trade with Russia, and even frozen Russia's $300 billion sovereign assets abroad.
The Russian economy itself is relatively dependent on energy trade, and after the United States and Western countries cut off energy cooperation with them, Russia is even more eager to sell its energy to cope with the current domestic economic development crisis.
In addition, Mongolia, which is involved in the existing "Power of Siberia-2" pipeline construction plan, is also eager for China and Russia to reach a cooperation agreement as soon as possible.
After all, the project is an important part of the construction concept of the Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor.
For the mainland, even if the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline project is stalled for a long time, it will not endanger domestic energy security.
The implementation of a diversified energy supply model will allow us to gradually grasp the initiative in pricing in this negotiation.
Of course, international energy trade is related to the stability of the national security strategic system, and we also hope to reach cooperation with Russia based on the concept of equal cooperation and mutual benefit, and will never let Russia suffer in relevant energy cooperation projects.
Fourth, the economy needs to be more sincere to 'look eastward'
Russia has long wanted to deeply integrate into the economic development circle of the West, but since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Western countries have begun to quickly "hard cut" with the Russian economy.
In the face of the policy of maximum pressure adopted by the Western world, the "eastward shift" of the economic center of gravity has become the only option left for Russia.
Of course, regardless of whether Russia actively or passively chooses to "move eastward" in its economy, sincerity of cooperation is one of the key elements for it to break through the current predicament.
Last year, when attending the 8th Eastern Economic Forum, Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed that Russia would continue to intensify its efforts to develop the Far East.
and hopes to expand economic cooperation with countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
However, given Russia's current economic difficulties and the disadvantages of the Far East in terms of infrastructure and population, it is necessary to rely on partner countries to achieve in-depth development of the Far East.
Of course, judging from the climatic environment and geographical location of the Far East, it seems that the mainland is its best natural partner.
It is only in the past that the business environment in the Russian Far East has not been able to play a positive role in attracting foreign investment.
After the total blockade of the country's economic system by Western countries, Russia is eager to establish an international trading system around local currency settlements to circumvent the restrictions of the dollar on its foreign trade.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Ovichuk said: At present, 92% of the bilateral trade volume between China and Russia has been successfully settled in local currency, and Russia will continue to actively cooperate with other countries in the next step.
It aims to explore and establish a new path of local currency settlement system, which will eventually completely replace the restrictive role of the dollar on the Russian economy.
summary
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the economic and trade cooperation between China and Russia has withstood the test of severe and complex internal and external environments, and continues to make new breakthroughs in cooperation in various fields.
The highly complementary potential of the Sino-Russian trade structure has been further unleashed.
However, with the gradual deepening of bilateral cooperation between China and Russia, it is inevitable that there will be differences between the two sides in some cooperation projects, but commercial negotiations based on international trade principles should be respected and understood by each other.
Sino-Russian energy trade cooperation is not only cooperation at the economic level, but also an in-depth consideration at the national strategic level.
From an economic point of view, commercial cooperation is not a philanthropic activity, and from a strategic point of view, I am afraid that the Russian side is more anxious than us to conclude a cooperation agreement.
Of course, in the process of the economy "looking eastward", 'sincerity' is the most important "weight" in the hands of Russia to break through the economic blockade of the United States and Western countries.
Reference Sources:
Energy, Automobiles, Mobile Phones...... Sino-Russian trade doubled in five years》
https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_26857180 The Paper
"China-Russia All-round Cooperation is Pragmatic and Efficient"
https://www.163.com/dy/article/INU1I3GQ0514R9L4.html Source: Overseas Network
Statistics from the General Administration of Customs: China-Russia Trade Volume Will Exceed 240 Billion US Dollars in 2023, and Exports to Russia Will Increase by 46.9%
https://www.ccpithlj.org.cn/news.php?id=6764 Heilongjiang Provincial Committee of China Council for the Promotion of International Trade
"Sino-Russian gas cooperation project, Russia does not want to delay any longer, is ready to make concessions to China"
https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1789780511356029713&wfr=spider&for=pc Awaken to new horizons
"Deputy Prime Minister of Russia: 92% of Sino-Russian trade is currently settled by local currency"
https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1794721330319163266&wfr=spider&for=pc North Evening Online
"Russia further releases the signal of "turning east"
https://hqtime.huanqiu.com/share/article/4EW2VNXkjX9 Global Times