Text: Xiao Peng's brilliant notes
Editor|Xiao Peng's brilliant notes
[Preface]
As we all know, since the reform and opening up, the mainland's economic growth rate has been like a rocket, and it has been growing at a double-digit level for many times every year.
Until around 2012, the mainland's economy began to slow down after surpassing Japan's, and although it did not grow as violently as before, it continued to grow at a single-digit rate.
The reason for this situation shows that the mainland's economy has now entered a new stage, and it needs to carry out industrial upgrading and strive to develop science and technology.
At the same time, there are many people who believe that the mainland's economic development has entered a bottleneck period, and it will be difficult to grow in the future.
[IMF Forecast]
In 2023, the IMF, also known as the International Monetary Fund, released a report, in which it predicted the economic development of the world in 2027.
In this forecast, the world's total GDP reached $13.163 billion at that time, which is a very good increase compared to more than 10 billion in 2023.
Among them, the status of the United States has not changed at all, and it still occupies the name of the world's largest economic power, but its position does not seem to be so secure.
Because today's GDP of the United States is only 26.94 trillion US dollars, it accounts for about 25.5% of the world, that is, a quarter of the world.
By 2027, although the GDP of the United States has exceeded the 30 trillion mark, its share in the world has dropped to about 23%.
The decline may not be large if you look at the numbers alone, but it does not bode well for the United States, because it shows that the dominant role of the United States in the world economic system is slowly disappearing.
In the IMF's forecast, China's GDP reached the level of 26.44 trillion US dollars, which is about the same as the GDP of the United States last year.
In other words, according to the IMF's forecast, the size of the mainland's economy will have reached the level of the United States in three years.
Correspondingly, the mainland's share of the world's economy will naturally rise, about 20%, that is, accounting for one-fifth of the total global economy.
Compared with the current gap of 26.94 trillion and 17.7 trillion yuan, by 2027, the GDP gap between China and the United States will be smaller again, surpassing that of the United States, and may even be completed before 2030.
[India surpasses Japan]
With the exception of the United States, the first and second countries, China, the economic landscape of other countries has also changed considerably in the coming years.
As we all know, in this year's GDP statistics, Germany has surpassed Japan to become the world's third largest economy.
Although the GDP growth of both countries was negative last year, this was also affected by exchange rate changes to a certain extent, and in fact, if calculated in the national currency, Germany's GDP still increased to a certain extent.
As for Japan, how to say it, we can only say that Japan has been a little unlucky in the past two years, and we will not say that the United States wants to kill Japan for meat recently, and the result is that it was first overtaken by Germany, from third to fourth, and then it may also be surpassed by India and fall to the fifth position.
According to the IMF's latest forecast, by 2025, Japan's GDP will be overtaken by India's, and by that time, India's GDP will reach $4,339.8 billion.
Japan's GDP is 4,310.3 billion US dollars, and the gap between the two is not large, but this does not mean that Japan still has a chance to overtake.
The first is that since the bursting of the bubble economy in Japan, the economy has basically been a stagnant pool, and no matter how much it is tossed, there is no response.
India is different, although India is still very backward in many aspects, but after all, India is the world's most populous country, and the potential for economic development is still very large.
At the same time, in the previous forecast, the IMF also believed that India's GDP will surpass Japan's, but the previous forecast time was 2026, and now it is only a year higher than before.
In addition, the IMF predicts that India's GDP growth will remain above 6% in the next few years, so by 2027, India will not only surpass Japan, but also Germany.
At this time, Japan's GDP will exceed 5 trillion yuan, accounting for 4.08% of the world's total economy while sitting third in the world.
Another point is that according to the current situation in Japan, we can also see that Japan is now not to say that it is GDP, and it is thankful that it can ensure that its economy does not collapse in the future, so it is a sure thing that India will surpass Japan.
【Five-country forecast】
As for when China will be able to develop to the level of surpassing the United States, although the IMF has not made a prediction, but at the end of last month, China, the United States, Russia, Canada and India had a cooperation.
At the first-level international symposium on the release of the think tank report of the five-nation cooperation, a report entitled "Compound Interest of Major Countries: China's High-quality Development and Trend Imagination in 2035" was released.
Although it is not a thorough international organization like the IMF, the five countries involved in the report: China, the United States, Russia, India, and Canada are all big countries with names and surnames.
And this is not a report of a non-governmental organization, but a very serious report, so what is mentioned in it will basically be realized in the future as long as there are no accidents.
The first is the economic development that we are most concerned about, and according to research, if we can maintain GDP growth of more than 5% per year in the next few years.
At the same time, if we can maintain more than 4% by 2035, then we will surpass the United States and become the world's largest economy in about 35 years.
From 2019 to 23, our economic growth rate was 6%, 2.2%, 8.5%, 3%, 5.2%, and an average of 4.98%.
In the past 20 years, it has been clearly affected by the epidemic, and if we remove the impact of the epidemic, it is not difficult to achieve an average growth rate of 5%.
The growth rate of the United States in recent years has been 2.5%, -2.2%, 5.5%, 2%, 2.5%, and 2.5%, with an average of about 2%, so it is not difficult to surpass the United States in 35 years.
The benefits of economic growth are not just a change in rankings, when our per capita disposable income is expected to double compared to this year, and the size of the middle-income group will expand to more than 700 million.
【International Influence Enhancement】
The five think tanks are not only discussing the economic aspect, but also about the changes in the mainland's international influence in 2035.
As we all know, in the past few decades, the mainland has always been like this in its foreign strategy, constantly releasing our vision for a peaceful future to other countries.
In addition, in the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative, the mainland's international influence has also been continuously enhanced, so by 2035, the mainland will become the main force for maintaining world peace and international stability.
The level of communication between the mainland and other countries will also be significantly improved, most notably the visa agreements between the mainland and other countries.
Today, only 140 million people in China have passports, and another billion have never flown on a plane, but as the future progresses, more and more people will travel abroad.
At that time, the number of countries that implement visa-on-arrival and visa-free with us may increase from 80 today to about 120 in the future, and it will be more and more convenient for people to travel abroad, in other words, China's degree of internationalization will be higher and higher.
【Science and Technology Development】
As we said earlier, since 2012, the mainland's economic growth has dropped from double digits to single digits, and this is because our economic development has reached a period of transition.
Before that, we were the world's factory, and we only needed to be responsible for the production of goods, and we could achieve huge economic growth every year until we developed into the second largest in the world.
But now it's different, the road of the world's factory has basically come to an end, so our next step is to develop technology.
We all know that the United States has moved its manufacturing industry out of the United States long ago, and the reason why they can continue to maintain the status of the world's largest economy is because of the advanced level of science and technology.
Although we have not yet reached the point where the United States is today, we have already begun to lay out in this regard, such as 5G, drones, new energy, these technologies, and China is far ahead.
Therefore, by 2035, our scientific and technological level will also have a huge development, and the world's top 500 companies alone may exceed 200, which is more than the United States today.
Links to previous issues
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Information sources:
China Economic News Network's report on April 1, 2024 on "Think Tanks of China, the United States, Russia, Canada and India Put Forward the Top Ten Visions of "China 2035".
The Beijing News on April 11, 2023 on "Zhu Guangyao: The Global Economic Situation in 2023 is "Organic in Crisis"| Xinjing Think Tank".