The United States censors Israel's human rights violations, and the Biden administration has only one option. At the stake, Hamas and Fatah met on behalf of Beijing, and the battle for Rafah was on the verge of breaking out.
Israel is about to attack Rafah, and the United States is pushing forward with a war crimes investigation
On the eve of Israel's preparations to attack Rafah, a war crimes investigation against Israel is also looming. Reuters reported on the 27th that according to the "National Security Memo" issued by U.S. President Joe Biden in February, Blinken must provide Congress with the credibility of written assurances about Israel before May 8. However, some senior officials told Blinken that Israel's assurances regarding compliance with international humanitarian law are "not credible and unreliable."
As of March 24, at least seven State Department agencies had submitted preliminary comments to Blinken, some of which were classified as classified, according to the report. A U.S. official said that some sectors were in favor of accepting Israeli assurances, while others refused to accept them, and others did not take a stand. Four of them said that Israel's pledges were "neither credible nor reliable", citing 11 examples of possible Israeli violations of international humanitarian law, including repeated attacks on protected areas and civilian infrastructure, disproportionate harm to civilians, restrictions on humanitarian assistance, and little investigative action and failure to hold accountable those who harm civilians.
The report also mentioned that so far, at least three staff members of the US State Department have resigned due to dissatisfaction with the US government's handling of the Gaza crisis.
Why are there so many voices within the US government that distrust Israel? The main reason is that Israel has gone too far. At least 70 civilians have been killed in Israeli cross-border shelling of Lebanon, including Reuters photojournalist Issam Abdullah, who was killed by Israeli tanks on October 13, according to the latest investigation reported by Reuters. Last Friday, Lebanon announced that it accepted the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court (ICC) and that it would prosecute Israel for violations of its territory.
At the same time, the US government's investigation into human rights violations by the Israeli army has also entered a critical moment. According to US media reports, the Biden administration is reviewing the information provided by the Israeli side and assessing whether the Israeli army has violated the human rights of Palestinian civilians in the West Bank. During the review process, Israel will continue to receive military assistance from the United States. If, finally, it is determined that Israel has not taken appropriate corrective measures, then the United States may limit the provision of assistance.
With regard to the so-called review by the United States government, some Muslim organizations believe that the review has lasted too long and may be stalling, and that according to the memorandum signed by the United States and Israel, the United States must consult with Israeli officials before reaching any conclusion. Therefore, it is difficult for the United States to give an assessment that is unfavorable to Israel, and therefore it is impossible to interrupt its aid to Israel.
It is worth mentioning here that under US domestic law, the US government is not allowed to provide funds to foreign security services suspected of human rights abuses. This means that the Biden administration can only choose between continuing to push for aid to Israel and concluding that Israeli forces are violating human rights. Although U.S. State Department Deputy Spokesman Vedant Patel said on the 25th that the Biden administration will act in accordance with the law for all countries receiving U.S. aid, including Israel, in fact, there is only one choice the Biden administration can make.
Biden made a procrastination trick, and Blinken visited the Middle East for the seventh time
If the truth is revealed, then Israel will undoubtedly violate international law and lose financial assistance from the United States. But if this is done, the Israeli side will certainly not agree, and Biden will also face opposition from Jewish political groups. If he doesn't, Biden will be criticized from all sides. For example, at the annual dinner of the White House Correspondents' Association on April 27, Biden was surrounded by hundreds of protesters, forcing him to enter the venue through the back door of the hotel.
Against this background, the Biden administration can only actively promote Kazakh-Israeli peace talks while offering procrastination. As long as the war is over, the United States will no longer have to assume the obligation to assist Israel, and there will be no need to investigate Israel.
So on April 29-30, Blinken embarked on his seventh trip to the Middle East, preparing to travel to Saudi Arabia to meet with regional leaders to discuss a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages. At the same time, Hamas and Fatah, the two major political factions in Palestine, also sent delegations to Beijing to hold "unity talks." Reuters reported that this was the first public visit to China by a Hamas delegation since the outbreak of the Kazakh-Israeli conflict in October last year. In addition, China's foreign ministry also revealed that last month, Chinese diplomat Wang Kejian met with Hamas leader Haniyeh in Qatar.
During Blinken's visit to China, the two sides also sent representatives to Beijing, which sent a major signal about Palestinian-Israeli peace. Reuters reported that in recent years, China has shown growing diplomatic influence in the Middle East, maintaining close ties with Arab countries and Iran. Last year, China brokered a breakthrough peace deal between regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran.
In recent months, China has also stepped up its support for Palestine, not only calling for a larger Israeli-Palestinian peace conference and setting a concrete timetable for the implementation of the two-state solution, but also continuing to push for Palestine to join the United Nations. The United States agrees with China's actions. For example, Blinken said after his visit that he discussed with Chinese leaders how China can play a constructive role in global crises, including the Middle East.
China is trying to mediate, and the United States is not idle. Reuters pointed out that before the visit of the two factions of Khafah to China, there was a major reshuffle in the Palestinian government led by Fatah, and President Abbas appointed Mustafa, an ally with huge influence in the business world, as prime minister. Mustafa said after taking office that ending the war was "a national priority." Of course, this round of reshuffling of the Palestinian government was carried out at the request of the United States. Washington wants Fatah to intervene in the Kazakh-Israeli war and reform the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip after the war.
After the visit of Blinken and Al Halfa to China, the situation in Gaza gradually became clearer. Both China and the United States demand an end to the Kazakh-Israeli conflict, but the difference is that the United States has a more urgent demand, while China wants to push for Palestine to join the United Nations. And in the face of an existential crisis, Hamas and Fatah also put aside their differences and began negotiations. During a visit to Turkey, Hamas leaders also publicly stated that Hamas could lay down its arms and transform into a political party, further reinforcing expectations that Hamas would form a coalition government.
Israel issued an ultimatum and Hamas released the video of the hostages
On 27 April, Israeli Foreign Minister Katz said that unless Hamas accepts an agreement to release some of the remaining 133 hostages, Israel will take major military action. He told visiting Egyptian officials that Israel was prepared to give the hostages a "last chance" to negotiate a deal with Hamas before attacking Rafah. And in the face of Israeli threats, Hamas released a video of the hostages. The two male hostages are shown on camera that they want Israel's wartime cabinet to approve the agreement.
The current Kazakh-Israeli divide is that Israel is trying to trade the release of Palestinian prisoners and a suspension of the war for the release of hostages by Hamas. And Hamas's demand is that no agreement will be signed unless the war ends permanently. Now is the most critical moment for the game between the two sides. Hamas has no choice but to be tough to the end. Because once you accept Israel's conditions, it is tantamount to completely giving up your gambling chips and letting others slaughter them. And the Netanyahu government has no way out, and a compromise with Hamas is tantamount to political suicide. There is a strong incentive on both sides to continue to maintain a tough stance, and the battle of Rafah may be difficult to avoid.