Text: Xiao Peng's brilliant notes
Editor|Xiao Peng's brilliant notes
[Preface]
Recently, international currency exchange rates have once again become the focus of attention, and as before, the center of this incident is still the United States or the dollar.
As early as a long time ago, the United States has promised that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in order to calm the exchange rate fluctuations of various countries in the world.
But we also know that if the United States is compared to a country, then this country must be an extremely selfish person.
Therefore, in order to take advantage of the opportunity to harvest other countries in the world, the news of the Fed's original interest rate cut has been slowing down, resulting in the US dollar now becoming the dominant currency market in Asia, killing other countries to retreat one after another.
It's hard not to be reminded of 1997, when the United States used the exchange rate as a weapon to trigger a financial crisis in Southeast Asia, also known as the "Asian Financial Crisis".
Is the purpose of the United States' current move to set off a new round of "currency wars"? Can Asian countries love themselves and protect themselves in this "currency war" and have the last laugh?
[Current situation of each country]
In 1997, the Asian financial crisis first broke out in Thailand, and then the impact quickly broke out of Thailand, raging throughout Southeast Asia, and then also in East Asia.
This time is different, in comparison, although Thailand's economic situation has also been affected, it is not the most serious one, and it is relatively stable.
But this is not the case with Vietnam, another country in Southeast Asia, whose banking sector itself is in crisis as a major country on the Indochina Peninsula.
Now there has also been a sharp currency depreciation, which eventually led to a large reduction in the country's foreign exchange reserves, which basically went to the banks of the United States, and the exchange rate came to 25,405 VND to one dollar, which is not as good as the famous Zimbabwe.
Therefore, Vietnam can be said to be very fragile today, and if it continues to develop at this pace, Vietnam is likely to become the origin of the financial crisis, just like Thailand before it.
At that time, with the help of some well-intentioned people, it is very likely that the scene of the 1997 Asian financial crisis will be staged again, but I don't know that this epidemic will have an impact on those countries.
Aside from Vietnam, Japan is arguably the most affected Asian country, and as we all know, Japan's currency has not been very valuable.
However, in the past, even if it was worthless, that is, a dollar to a yen in the early 100s, and even in many cases, the ratio could be roughly maintained at 1:100.
However, in recent times, the exchange rate of the yen has reached a new height, falling below the 154 mark one after another, and there is a feeling that it is about to become waste paper.
Moreover, this depreciation has been going on for a long time, resulting in Japan's GDP being even worse than it was in 1995, although there are also reasons for currency depreciation, but more often because their economy has not risen for so many years.
In this respect, South Korea and Japan can be said to be a pair of difficult brothers, after all, the relationship between them and the United States is known to everyone.
Compared with the yen, the South Korean won is even more miserable, at the beginning of this year, a dollar can be exchanged for about 1,300 won according to the exchange rate, and since then, the exchange rate has fallen below 1,400 won, and it has only dropped in the past two days.
At the same time, not only East Asia and Southeast Asia, but also India, which is also an economic power in Asia, has also been affected to a certain extent, but because of India's large size, it is relatively stable.
But even so, now that the exchange rate has fallen to 83.5, it has fallen to an all-time low, and it can be said that the whole of Asia is not good.
The exception is China, which many people may have heard about recently, and that is that the offshore exchange rate of the renminbi fell below the 7.22 mark.
On April 16, the China Foreign Exchange Trade System also released a specific data, which showed that the median quotation of the RMB exchange rate on that day was 7.1028.
At a time when other countries' exchange rates are skyrocketing and currencies are becoming less and less valuable, our currency is falling, which is undoubtedly good news.
And according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, compared with last year, our GDP in the first quarter of this year increased by 5.3%, in this environment, currency appreciation and GDP growth are undoubtedly good news, which shows that even if there is a real financial crisis, our economy will not be affected much.
Of course, whether it appreciates or depreciates, it is actually only a temporary thing, for example, after this, our renminbi fell again.
Although it was about to reach seven yuan at the lowest time, it still increased after that, and then the exchange rate fell directly below 7.28, and as of the current date, the exchange rate stayed at about 7.2343.
[How to deal with it]
For this kind of thing, countries must not want to see it, take Vietnam as an example, recently Vietnam's richest man Truong My Lan was sentenced to death because she was suspected of being involved in the biggest fraud case in Vietnam's history.
Among the financial frauds, the biggest loss was Vietnam's fourth largest bank, Saigon Joint Stock Commercial Bank (SCB).
Because of the impact of this incident, the Vietnamese government had no choice but to inject $24 billion in loans into Saigon Joint Stock Commercial Bank in order to keep its domestic banking sector from completely collapsing.
However, this amount alone is equivalent to a quarter of Vietnam's foreign exchange reserves, and the loss of this part of the foreign exchange reserves will put more pressure on the entire Vietnamese interest rate market.
This is what has to be done, which is why the exchange rate of the Vietnamese dong will change so much, and if there is some interference from external forces at this time, it will easily collapse, and then trigger the whole of Asia to enter the financial crisis again.
As a result, the United States can use this dollar tide to make a big deal of firepower, not only making up for all kinds of hidden dangers at home at once, but also harvesting the wealth of other countries.
In the face of this situation, we naturally have to have our own countermeasures, and among these countermeasures, the easiest way is to exchange the United States in our hands for gold.
At the same time, it is necessary to formulate a series of policies to ensure that people in their own countries do not exchange money for dollars before the currency has depreciated to a certain extent, and then deposit it in American banks to eat the so-called interest.
Of course, they can also choose to exchange their currency for RMB and connect with China financially, which is equivalent to binding themselves to China.
Judging from the previous exchange rate changes, the RMB is still relatively stable under the US dollar plagiarism manipulated by the Federal Reserve, and these countries have large trade exchanges with us, so this method can also be tried, and it can also accelerate the internationalization of the RMB.
The last way is to borrow money from the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank, which can also be used for some stable hedging.
But there is also a problem, that is, these organizations are very biased towards the United States in many cases, and even if they are not biased towards the United States, they may be influenced by the United States, so it is difficult to receive loans.
For China, this matter is very easy to solve, after all, our second largest economy in the world is not useless.
As long as our economy can be maintained and stabilized, it will not cause us much harm, so in the future, we will definitely stimulate the economy to maintain our fundamentals.
[De-dollarization]
However, this is all temporary, and when the United States really begins to harvest, it is very likely that some countries will still be unable to resist.
Recently, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that if inflation in the United States is not less than 2%, then the Fed will not cut interest rates.
However, according to the recent period, inflation in the United States is estimated to hover above 2% for a while, so although there will be no interest rate hike in the short term, there will be no interest rate cut.
As a result, the longer the US continues to keep interest rates high, the more tragic the currency war will be, and the more these Asian countries will lose.
Therefore, if you want to solve this problem permanently, you still have to carry out "de-dollarization", and only when the dollar completely loses its current position as a monetary hegemon will it not be harvested by the dollar tide like Yang Yong.
However, countries around the world have been arguing about de-dollarization for a long time, and from the current situation, there is no way to achieve it in the short term.
Links to previous issues
China spent $1.3 billion to build a port for Peru, but it was sued by Peru when it was almost completed!
With a population of 1.4 billion, why does China buy grain globally, while India is frantically exporting without fear of the food crisis?
Earning 722.7 billion yuan a year! With 10 trillion yuan of global minerals, he is the real "invisible richest man" in China
Information sources:
Xinhua News Agency ————GDP increased by 5.3 percent year-on-year! China's economy has made a good start
Shangguan News ———— just now, the yuan broke 7.28!
Securities Daily———— The central parity of the RMB was lowered below the 7.1 mark, and the continued upward recovery of the domestic economy will still bring support