Many times I have a feeling that there is a cycle in the course of history, and many things will feel familiar at the moment when they happen.
It's like it's almost May, the weather is getting hotter and hotter, and there are more and more flowers, and at the same time, that feeling is looming again, look at the recent economic news. Of course, people look at their phones now, and 30 years ago people watched newspapers and television.
It had come once and left, but it didn't go far.
It was early summer 1997.
Many people think that the Asian financial crisis began in '98, but in fact, in '97, the first country to be targeted, Thailand, began to tremble.
In the 90s, I used to go on vacations to Thailand with Ben.
Mr Ben is Malaysian, of course British, with a blue passport, and he is a foreign expert who came to work in China, and I met him at a low point in my life, when I had just divorced my ex-husband.
I was about to start a new life, but I ran into some technical difficulties, so I simply moved into Mr. Ben's apartment and started our eight-year roommate life.
Mr. Ben used his warmth and companionship to help me get through that cold time of youth.
Mr. Ben is of Chinese descent. He still maintains his Chinese surname: Li. I admire that the Chinese in Malaysia still maintain their traditions.
Overseas Chinese in Malaysia are very patriotic and they are attached to their homeland. In history, there were not only heroes who served the country during the Anti-Japanese War, but also patriotic businessmen who returned to China to invest during the reform and opening up period.
Mr. Ben always told me that when he was young, he went to a Chinese academy, and when he was in middle school, he was sent to Hong Kong, and then he went to the United States to study, so in his way of thinking, Chinese was dominant.
In his words, I was speaking Cantonese in my dreams.
Yes. Cantonese is their native dialect, and Mr. Ben's family's experience in Nanyang can be traced back to the Qing Dynasty, and it is said that they left their homeland during the Taiping Rebellion. But Mr. Ben, who appeared in front of me, was very different from the vast majority of overseas Chinese in Malaysia.
''You're a teddy bear. ''
I'm always frolicking with him like this. I was very fond of poking him in the stomach, and when I poked him, he deliberately stuck out his tongue to tease me, like a real teddy bear. He had a pair of turquoise eyes, tall and strong, white skin and thick black hair with curly black hair. In the backlight, you can see that his whole body is covered with a layer of fluff, which really looks like a teddy bear!
There is no way, although Lao Ben has a Chinese heart, the family surnamed Li can lay a foundation in Nanyang and keep their wealth. For more than 100 years, they have chosen a variety of intermarriages that are advantageous to the situation. Therefore, Mr. Ben's Chinese blood is also mixed with the blood of Britain, Egypt, Indonesia, and Malaysia.
Hah! Standard salad man. Of course, from this point, it can also be seen that a wealthy Chinese family has made a comprehensive layout and good intentions in order to stand tall in the local area.
Although Mr. Ben is originally from Malaysia, as a Chinese businessman, his family's investment real estate is widely distributed, and he has properties in Thailand and Singapore. I remember that back then, we used to stay at his family's holiday farm in Chiang Mai Province, Bangkok, during the winter.
On the forest trails of Chiang Mai, you can meet elephants. You can also meet some very strange buffaloes, and the animals are all steady and slow. Thais are very humble and reserved and have a big smile. When they saw us, they folded their hands and greeted us.
In the early 90s, the city of Greater Bangkok was already bustling, and it was the capital of Thailand. It is also an economic center. Bangkok has both glittering palaces and highways jammed with traffic, and the beautiful Erawan Shrine sits at the corner of the street to greet everyone's worship. Busy citizens, peaceful monks, all kinds of shops are doing brisk business.
Whether it is a small tea restaurant that sells coffee and snacks, or a high-end restaurant, you can cook exquisite Chinese cuisine and French cuisine. No matter where you are, the honey-skinned Thai girl will greet you with a long voice and provide comfortable service to the guests!
Mr. Ben has had a profound impact on me throughout my life. So far, if my wife is going on a business trip for a few days, he will definitely make me a big box of curry rice, his curry rice, Hainanese chicken rice, and tom yum soup, all from Malaysia. Of course, there are also satay skewers, coconut milk rice, and by the way, bird's nest.
Malaysia is rich in bird's nest, and every early autumn, Mr. Ben will send me a large box and tell me to eat it in winter. This is what he saw when he looked at the Dream of Red Mansions.
The most beautiful holiday I remember was in the winter of 1995, when Bangkok was so prosperous and so peaceful. The first half of the 90s was a good year for Southeast Asian countries. The Asian Tigers are speeding in front, followed by a large number of Southeast Asian countries. In fact, in all fairness, many Southeast Asian countries are indeed rich in natural resources!
Take Thailand as an example, whether you are walking on a country road or in a seaside coconut grove, all you see is emerald and wealth. In this tropical country, there is only a dry season and a rainy season, there is no snow, not even cold winds, and when it is the coldest, it is just a big sweater.
In the foreground, rice paddies stretch as far as the eye can see, tall tropical spice crops in the middle ground, and vast expanses of primeval forest in the distance. In the small courtyard of the farmhouse, peacocks can wander back and forth, and on the side of the road at the entrance of the village, elephants are playing and bathing. Oh, you can see that God cares for this land. Truth be told, they have a lot more resources than we do, and I mean per capita.
We grew up knowing that phrase from our geography teacher. Our motherland is vast, but it is also followed by a large population. In fact, if you really walk in the Chinese mainland, you will find a large area of land with barren production. For example, the desert Gobi, saline-alkali tidal flats, and even many coastal areas are very thin.
Hey, sometimes when I go out and see, there are many surrounding countries, and the vegetable gardens of those neighbors are really rich and rich. The land is shiny, and we don't have to say anything about that.
Anyway, in the 90s of the last century, the prosperity of Bangkok was similar to that of Beijing and Shanghai, but in the countryside of Thailand, people's living standards were higher than those in the central and western villages of China. The resources are there, and you can eat it well if you grow something. Every river is full of fish and shrimp, and the huge black catfish swaying in the creek is as fat as a piglet, and the locals don't bother to eat it at all.
It is against this background that the rich white elephants of Southeast Asia are being targeted by American predators on the other side of the ocean. As a matter of fact, we now always say that the Asian financial crisis was Soros's personal responsibility, but the position he used to start this hunt was only $3 billion! With very little investment and huge leverage, it is true that he can make huge profits. But this profit is not something that anyone can get. Again, finance is politics after all!
In May '97, Mr. Ben muttered to me with a gray face, "I may have to go home, it will take a little longer, well, take care of yourself, and if you need any help, contact Appe." ”
When I heard this, I was surprised to ask, "Are you going to go back to China for vacation?" When Mr. Ben heard me, he waved his hand impatiently, and he said, "My itinerary is not fixed, but I am going to leave for a while."
During that time he was distraught and restless.
At first, I thought it was because of family matters, but then I soon found out the truth. That is Mr. Ben's family, which has close contacts with the Chinese business community in Thailand. He had two cousins, both of whom married into Thai merchant families.
In other words, in line with the principle of both prosperity and loss, at this time, Mr. Ben, who is a Malaysian plantation owner, has been dragged into the water.
Because I studied law, and our unit studied economics, I know more or less about it. So we sat down and discussed something. In fact, at that time, we were quite optimistic about the future.
First of all, Mr. Ben believes that although the shorting of the Thai baht on Wall Street in the United States is a certainty, the magnitude will not be very large, after all, Thailand is a top financial student in Southeast Asia, and a large amount of investment flowed into Thailand at that time, and Thailand's economy is prosperous, and there is no recession. In addition, Thai agricultural products, rice, tea, and oilseeds were very popular at that time. It has a pivotal position in the international bulk futures market.
So, Mr. Ben doesn't think the future will be too bad. The Thai government still has some means of coping. But then we realized that the economy is really not just about the economy, it also includes politics.
Before a storm, it's not always cloudy, and sometimes it's surprisingly calm.
Now think about Soros's initial layout, it was not to make a small fight of billions and 800 million US dollars, at that time he had already begun to act in many ways. Whether it is the short-term forward short of the Thai baht, or the exchange rate and interest rate, Soros has begun to lay out. Looking back now, think that this is also the ambition of Soros predators, who had already begun to brew a big game of chess......
In fact, in the early days of the disaster, the Thai government had a chance to turn things around.
In July, Thailand enacted a tough policy, shutting down foreign exchange forward trading and derivatives trading.
That's right, it's a big deal that I'm going to close my doors, it's a big deal that I'm going to cut off some financial channels with foreign countries. Bear with it first, after all, the internal resources of a country like Thailand are still relatively sufficient, and it is not a big problem to carry it for a year and a half.
But that's the way it is, often when you think it's not a big problem, it's a big problem. Because Soros's next move is to launch a war of public opinion. Taking advantage of the Thai government's instability, he set off a wave of public opinion in Thailand, bribed opposition parties, and pressured the government to abandon the decision.
The excessive attraction of foreign capital and the excessively open financial market have also provided convenience for entry and exit, and this door cannot be closed anyway. Soon the baht was pouring and it was impossible to bear it, because everyone was throwing it!
Before the economic crisis, the exchange between the Thai baht and the renminbi was almost 1 to 3, but after the economic crisis, it became 1 to 5.
Of course, for us, this may mean that it is more convenient and affordable to travel to Thailand. Indeed, after the financial crisis, Thailand's tourism industry welcomed the most customers from China, which also helped Thailand's economy recover. But the problem is that this is not what the Thai government wants to see. Of course, I don't mean tourists.
Overnight, many small and medium-sized banks were run on and exploded, and it was also overnight that many banks suddenly found themselves running out of money on their books. For the banking industry, the most terrible thing is the depreciation of the local currency and the frenzied run, which means that many small and medium-sized commercial banks have gone bankrupt immediately, and there is no power to return to heaven.
The bankruptcy of the bank has ruined all the businesses, because everyone has something to do with the bank, and Mr. Ben's family business is also in a hurry, and two factories are already on the verge of bankruptcy. Soon, he took a long leave from our unit and started his own business trip around the world.
Travel is tough.
Ben once turned to a bank in the UK, knowing that there are many banks in the UK, which have deep roots in Asia. But the problem is that on the one hand, due to the large number of people asking for help, the passage is crowded for a while. On the other hand, many British banks have also taken the opportunity to reduce prices, so the cost of financing is too high. It was a difficult time for Ben.
"Mao Ning, there are four negotiations this afternoon, and it may not be concluded until late at night. I have a terrible headache right now, and it doesn't matter how much white flower oil I apply. It's like being pricked by countless steel needles. ”
"Mao Ning, how are you today? I want to talk to you, yesterday was another extremely bad day. When the news came, several of my loved ones were hit hard. My third cousin's family may be facing bankruptcy. Oh my God, she's thrown a lot of money into the business, but now, the business can't be sustained. If you go bankrupt early, you may be able to liquidate the money early. Now everyone is short of money, and before you can borrow it, others have already come to you. It's like a tsunami hit, and no one can help anyone......"
Every day is hard, as you can see from the fax Ben sent me. His handwriting, scribbled and stiff, was not even coherent anymore.
Writing letters is a way to decompress, but the problem is that it doesn't work alone......
Indeed, for that financial crisis, it was no different from an act of God. All of a sudden, all normal life was disrupted. Originally, the company did a good job, but the company suddenly couldn't start work the next day, there was no money to buy raw materials, there was no money to pay workers, and the things produced could not be sold. We all know it's a short-term mess, but can we handle it? How many people died before dawn?
I remember the Spring Festival in 1998, and I didn't go anywhere. He didn't even go back to Malaysia, he stayed in Beijing. In the evening of my 30th birthday, I went home to have a dumpling meal with my family, and then the next morning, I returned to the apartment where I lived with him.
And what about Ben? He's still working.
In fact, the Spring Festival is the most important festival for the Chinese, but he doesn't have this in mind. He was discussing with a cousin-in-law in England whether he could come up with some beautiful assets in the family and mortgage them to the bank.
But it has to be said that the marriage layout of the big family has shown its advantages here, and Lao Ben realized that their family would not be able to escape the doom in the next step. So he began to make friends with relatives in Britain and the United States.
It is said that his family used to be just planting palm and rubber in a down-to-earth manner, which is a traditional industry in Malaysia, but the problem is that in the 90s of the last century, who still wants to be a rich man? The old family has already invested a lot of money in setting up factories. Of course, they are also involved in overseas investment.
And part of these investments is in Chinese mainland, many Chinese businessmen, including the old Ben family, have boarded the big ship of the Guo family, the leader of Chinese businessmen in Malaysia, and the well-known Arowana, Shangri-La Hotel, Parkson Group, are all products of this consortium.
The investment in China, as well as the long-term work in China and the contacts he accumulated, finally saved him. Of course, that's later.
It's like a basket of oranges, and one of them is rotten, so what about its surroundings? Soon more oranges are going wrong!
You must know that Soros is not satisfied with only eating Thai baht, so he mobilized more positions at a cost of five billion US dollars and began to reach out to other Asian countries, and soon the Asian financial crisis broke out in full swing!
The Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia, South Korea, and more and more countries are on the menu.
Of course, the response varies from country to country. Some of them lie flat directly, just like the Philippines itself has a relatively weak economy, and the issuance of the local currency is not large.
Some countries have been hit hard, like Indonesia, but such countries have their own way of survival, that is, vast agriculture. To put it bluntly, I am an agrarian country, and it is a big deal to work hard for 30 years and return to the pre-liberation period. No matter how powerful Soros is, he can't take away the rice and tea leaves in the field and the rubber palms on the trees!
That is to say, through futures trading, they can still earn a steady stream of dollars. In the world's big production machines, there is no shortage of raw materials they provide!
Other countries are quite small at all, and they act as financial hubs, like Singapore. What's more, it still has a deep suzerainty relationship with the United Kingdom, and this kind of operation method of buying and selling, and going with the market, also makes him unable to withstand too much impact, but his foreign exchange savings are a little less. And in order to maintain the interests of the United States in this region, some people do not want Singapore to be too chaotic.
In fact, in the Asian financial crisis, it is countries like South Korea that are most feared. Why? Because he has no resources, there is almost no production on the land of Pingchuan, and South Korea cannot even be self-sufficient in its own food, and it still relies heavily on imports. The so-called Seoul miracle is actually to vigorously develop the manufacturing industry, and use the factory-type model of buying raw materials and selling products to rapidly boost the economy.
Therefore, South Korea hates Soros the most, and South Korea encounters the greatest difficulties. However, I was very surprised by the courage of the Korean people in the face of difficulties.
In South Korea, a vigorous cash movement was set off, and many housewives deposited their gold rings and gold bracelets in the bank, using a large amount of gold as ballast stones, alleviating South Korea's urgent need.
Say more here, what's really the matter, what donkey brand bags, crown watches are useless, or gold bracelets and gold necklaces can be used. Now it is estimated that many ordinary people also understand this truth, spending tiger whistle luxury, but just to be able to rush to the scene, when there are real economic problems at home, they still have to point to the grandmother's gold bracelet to tide over the difficulties.
In the frightened Spring Festival of '98, Mr. Ben disappeared for more than two months. Now that I think about it, I know that because of the early layout and early preparation, many things really broke out, and the old man was much calmer.
But even before that, there were many preparations. Soon after, as the financial crisis deepened and the chain reaction grew, one of the failed banks was finally listed as a long-term partner with the old family. In other words, his family was still dragged to the shore in the end.
I remember that Ben was in dire need of a position to alleviate the crisis in his factory in Malaysia, where the factory had shut down, and if the contract order could not be completed, he would face a large amount of liquidated damages, and the amount of liquidated damages was more than he could raise.
The old man was in a hurry, and at this time he set his eyes on the mainland of the motherland for help.
At that time, Ben was very busy, running outside every day, he wanted to sell his agricultural products in advance, even if he broke the contract from some contracts, he had to sell it in advance to cash out. He needed a lot of dollars to get his factory up and running.
At that time, I also helped him find people everywhere. There are jujubes and no jujubes, and they are all hit with three poles. I have a colleague who later went to COFCO, and I found him and asked if I could help him get in touch with him, so I finally contacted a buyer. I haven't seen that person either, so I told Ben his contact information, and Ben chatted with him on the phone for a while, and then made an appointment to meet him at the Shangri-La Hotel.
In fact, this is a normal business dealing, Ben was in his early 40s at that time, and he has been traveling south and north for so many years, this thing is nothing to him, but what he never expected is that at this moment, a business dinner makes Ben feel trembling.
On weekend afternoons, our apartment was very quiet, and I remember that when I woke up from my nap, I didn't hear a sound from the second floor, and by four or five o'clock I thought it was time for him to go out, so I ran upstairs to call him, but when I got to the corner of the stairs, I was startled.
I saw Mr. Ben prostrate on the carpet, dressed in a white robe, with a solemn face and muttering to himself, where he prayed sincerely. It wasn't until this point that I realized. Oh, he's a Muslim.
But in my long-term relationship with him, this point is often ignored by us, Lao Ben, originally a very Westernized person, I don't think he is a particularly compliant white robe, he has no taboos. But now, hey, it looks like he's shivering!
In the words of my second brother, there are no atheists in the trenches. And at this time, it was also a war for Ben! During that time, he rarely drank alcohol, and the precepts gradually became stricter. It was a regular life, but he was so anxious that his weight was declining.
When I was about to go out, Ben suddenly asked me, and he said, "Can Mao Ning go with me?" I thought about it, nodded, and said, "Okay, then I'll go with you." ”
At dinner, I tried my best to set the mood for both sides, so that Ben and the merchant could get together as quickly as possible. After the meal, I accompanied him to a corner of the garden in the atrium, where there was a predetermined spot.
There was a fountain in a corner, and the old Ben walked behind the merchant with his head down, and I didn't plan to go, so I pulled the old Ben and whispered to him, you see that the temporary location is very feng shui, there is a big plane tree in the back, and next to the big tree, there is a spring. Water is wealth, wood is stability! Wealth comes from stability! Rest assured, the negotiations will go smoothly.
I stayed in the lobby of the hotel, watching them from afar in the open wooden chairs, smoking and talking, and soon saw that the old Ben had taken out some materials from Fang Fang's briefcase, and it seemed that they were making progress.
After several rounds of negotiations, Ben and the businessman reached a contract and raised a little money. Immediately after that, good news came from several other places. Many Malay businessmen who invested in China at that time received support from the mainland of the motherland, which also laid the foundation for the future strengthening of the influence of the renminbi in the whole of Asia!
Many things can be moved from far to near, from TV to life. In '98, the financial crisis finally reached Hong Kong. We're ready for it. Hong Kong is different from other Southeast Asian countries, it has a strong motherland behind him.
Now that I think about it, we only had 100 billion dollars in foreign reserves. In order to win this financial war, the central government has really invested in it. At the same time, Soros does not dare to underestimate the stable economic foundation and effective financial policies in our country. No matter how greedy and bold he was, he didn't dare to hit the dragon with his ideas.
Because he knows that there is a solid government here, there is a united people!
''来吧来吧，相约九八。 ''
For those living on the mainland of the motherland, 98 was a good year. My salary went up, I bought a new house, and my business began to flourish. Many people have gone from small cities to big cities, so this duet between Faye Wong and Na Ying thought about all corners of the city back then......
But in fact, this kind of beautiful and tranquil picture, this steaming life, is supported by someone behind us. It is a strong financial system, a complete manufacturing industry, a solid agricultural foundation, and those PLA soldiers guarding the frontier posts, snowy plateaus, beaches, islands and reefs.
In the final analysis, the economy is politics, and politics is the military. The reason why the big scythe of the United States can be open to harvest the rich lands of Southeast Asia, without scruples, and with a relaxed mentality.
The fundamental reason for this is that the US military has a very large number of naval bases in these places. One military base after another, connected into a large iron net, encompassing many countries. In Pattaya. Scenes of petite and delicate Thai girls and tall American sailors hugging and laughing together abound. When every warship arrived at the port to replenish supplies, the town ushered in a period of prosperity.
In Japan, I remember being in Tokyo. Ben once pointed to the lights of Roppongi and said, "Do you believe it?"
Here, too, I would like to say one more thing.
Some of my colleagues I know are the kind of people who have been engaged in trade and negotiations with Japan for a long time. Many of them are now retiring, too!
In which year and when I was in Japan, which prime minister, which foreign minister, what was their policy towards China?
Which year, which year. Which prime minister was in office, who was the foreign minister, and what regulations did the Ministry of Finance make at that time?
Speaking of these past stories, many comrades sighed. This sigh is actually for the Japanese, why? That's four words: I can't help myself!
As a matter of fact, the friendship between China and Japan has a very great win-win situation and a very broad prospect. Just like in the 80s of the last century, Japan completed its own industrial upgrading through trade with China. And China, on the other hand, has also acquired a lot of the industrial technology we need, isn't that great?
One is out of technology, the other is in energy. But the problem is that there are many things, and for Japan, it is those four words: "I can't help myself." ”
It's like one of our big brothers laughing and talking: Hey, it's the girl over there who takes the key, don't say it, forget it!
In the final analysis, the strength of a country depends on its own favorable time, place and people.
Tianshi: It means that the land area is large and the population is large. The whole ecology, for a big country, is not afraid of any bruises and falls, self-repair, and the ability is very strong.
Although we now have some technologies that need to be imported, they are not completely irreplaceable. It's just that our products have defects. Lack of competitiveness. To put it bluntly, we can now be self-reliant. This is beyond the reach of many countries.
And then there are people. The whole country is united. Don't panic, don't worry, don't mess up. Be patient, determined, and persistent!
If you think about it again, isn't this how the giant dragon of the Chinese nation has come along the way over the past thousands of years? Although there have been ups and downs, on the whole it is strong and steady.
Looking back at 30 years ago, it seems that after the Asian financial crisis, many countries have set back ten years, and even now they are standing still.
For example, the Thai baht has not risen until now.
However, our domestic life should also be repaid, and our development should be repaid. The renminbi has gone through ups and downs and is now getting bigger and bigger. Closer and closer to his globalization goals.
It's been 30 years, and it's been a snap of a finger. I was a young girl back then, but now I have become a half-hundred aunt. I am not in good health and recuperate at home, but I also have my husband by my side, and I am fine.
Mr. Ben has already traveled. It's been two years. But after he left, every autumn, I still received bird's nest from Malaysia. That's what he told his wife.
Thank God for sending Mr. Ben to me in my most difficult time, and at the same time, I would like to thank his wives for thinking about me for so many years.
When she is old, the reason why she lives a good life may be because there are always some people around her who are worth caring about.
The two widows left behind by Mr. Ben have become fat old ladies, and the two old ladies discussed that after three years of mourning, they would come to Beijing in the autumn of this year to have a visit, and when the time came, they would ask me to go to the Shangri-La Hotel for tea. May the ladies be healthy and well-nourished!
Modern warfare is not necessarily about attacking cities with real guns and ammunition. Financial warfare is also a type of warfare. Thanks to the People's Liberation Army, they are our true guardians.
I recently learned a Cantonese song. I used to listen to Ben hum, and he said that when he was a child, Grandma often sang to him. The Chinese in Malaysia all know this song, and its name is: Colorful Clouds Chasing the Moon.
Where is the bright moon? The sun is hidden, the night is dewy, the light shines on the world, slowly shines on Pingyang, and then shines on the bridge, and thousands of families look up to Haoying......
