The renminbi depreciated by more than 600 points, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks fell sharply, and the national team took action

There are two main reasons for today's A-share plunge and Hong Kong stocks: first, the US dollar index strengthened sharply in early trading, and the offshore RMB violently depreciated by more than 500 points, falling below the 7.26 mark, which had an impact on market sentiment;

In addition to this, there are some things that chase after the wind. For example, it is rumored that "the regulatory requirement that the quantitative index co-opt stocks need to be 60% of the benchmark constituent stocks", which may lead to the quantitative having to sell small and micro cap stocks. For another example, it sounds nonsense to say that the regulatory authorities are stationed in the public offering to conduct inspections, and the public offering deliberately smashes the market to vent its anger.

Let's mainly talk about the depreciation of the offshore RMB exchange rate, which suddenly plummeted after the opening of the market this morning, and then A-shares and Hong Kong stocks also dived. At that time, we were still very puzzled, and looked at the exchange rates of various countries, the dollar index was indeed strengthening, but the RMB would not depreciate so much, and then we also looked at the yield of government bonds, and there was no expectation of interest rate cuts.

In general, there are two main reasons for the collapse of the offshore RMB exchange rate today:

On the one hand, yesterday's sudden interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank led to a sharp depreciation of the Swiss franc and a sharp strengthening of the dollar index, and the US economy is more resilient than Europe, and the ECB's interest rate cut expectations will also make the dollar index stronger. If the U.S. dollar index strengthens, the RMB exchange rate will passively depreciate.

On the other hand, according to Hongze analysts, since the beginning of this year, the supervision has continued to keep the onshore yuan below 7.2 to limit depreciation, and today there are signs of relaxation of control, the onshore exchange rate exceeded 7.2 for the first time this year, and the depreciation pressure of the exchange rate after the relaxation of the main suppressive force is truly reflected in the market price. This is something that those of us who have not been directly involved in forex trading cannot see.

However, whether it is the old United States or the depreciation of the renminbi may not lead to a sharp drop in A-shares, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, the yen has been depreciating, the Japanese stock market is still bullish, in the final analysis, it depends on whether their market has confidence. A-share rebound before the holiday so far, there is no big callback, you have to find a way to wash it, to put it bluntly, people are panicked, although foreign capital today is at most more than 6 billion, but at noon in buying.

Finally, as of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.95%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.47%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.96%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 3.38%. The turnover of the two cities increased to 1.09 trillion, and the net sale of northbound funds was 3.138 billion, and more than 4,300 companies fell.

At noon today, the national team began to buy ETFs such as CSI 300 and SSE 50 again, and you can see that the time-sharing chart has increased significantly in the afternoon. Hong Kong stocks are the base camp for foreign shorting, and there is no national team to protect the disk, and today's decline is far greater than that of A shares, but southbound funds bought 14 billion today.

We believe that it may be difficult for the Shanghai Composite Index to fall below 3,000 points, because the management has finally protected the index, and it is unlikely that the index will fall sharply, and now the Shanghai Composite Index is only 3,040 points, and if it falls below 3,000 points, it will be one or two points of space, so there is no need to panic at all.

Now A-shares have completed the over-fall rebound at most, and even the valuation repair can not be talked about, the domestic economy has signs of stabilization and recovery, this year, the global central bank will most likely begin to cut interest rates, and external demand will also usher in a boost, and the resonance of domestic and foreign demand is the fundamental side of the stock market's recovery, and the recovery line such as consumption is lying on the floor, what to talk about pessimism. Today, the yield of government bonds has rebounded sharply, and the days of the people who make bonds making a lot of money every day are not long, and now the market's obsession with the bond base is no different from the 21-year equity fund climax, there is nothing new under the sun, and buying and selling in a place where no one cares about it when the crowd is boiling.

At present, we are still optimistic about the main line of AI, especially domestic computing power, and now the media speculated in the market are all doing with free capital, and there is no performance, institutions will only do computing power, you see what is the stronger application of US stocks in addition to Microsoft, the most bullish is Nvidia, these shovel stocks, HBM, PCB, CPO, liquid-cooled servers, storage and other links can produce performance in a quarterly report.

When the economic recovery is strengthened, there will be great opportunities for strong cyclical varieties such as consumption, real estate chain, and nonferrous metals, but then it will be an exponential market.

Risk Warning:

The stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious, this article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently