Hey, the RMB exchange rate has depreciated again, and the stock market has also made a fuss, which is really the rhythm of "one operation is as fierce as a tiger, and a loss of 25,000 at a glance". The recent wave of big news on October 16 really put people's hearts in the throat. The renminbi has fallen to about 7.1 against the US dollar at this time, just like diving, and everyone knows this fall: the international economic situation is complicated, and our foreign exchange market has also made waves.
Let's talk about the exchange rate first. Obviously, everyone is still waiting for the Fed to cut interest rates quickly, but as soon as the United States non-farm payrolls data is released, it is surprisingly good. This caused the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar to rise instead of falling, forcing our renminbi to weaken. Looking at it this way, the depreciation of the renminbi seems to be unstoppable. To put it bluntly, what does this depreciation directly affect? Emotions! Looking at the international capital market, is China's economy more unstable? Can the United States economy still fight? It is clear where the capital should go. At this time, not to mention investors, even ordinary people are a little muttering: How much money can I still be worth?
This is not over, the volatility of A-shares is even more unsteady. In the past few days, COFCO Capital's share price has just risen, and the second largest shareholder, Hony Hongliang, has directly thrown out a large shareholding reduction plan, preparing to reduce its holdings of 69.123 million shares, accounting for less than 3% of the share capital. All of a sudden, the mood of the market exploded. Originally, the stock market has been able to toss recently, it has risen for five days and fallen for three days. The stock prices of 4,500 companies have fallen in unison, and this face is like "if you fall, I will fall, and no one will want to run".
To say that this stock market volatility has actually become the norm recently. Hong Kong stocks fell, A-shares followed, market sentiment rose and fell like a roller coaster, and no one dared to start easily. But then again, whether this wave of shocks can survive depends on whether the market can stabilize the 3,000-point line. Once it falls below 3,000 points, it is really a "fall". Especially now that the trading volume is not increasing, it shows that domestic capital does not dare to invest money in it, and the confidence is insufficient.
However, we can't just look at the stumbles in front of us. Every time there is an economic adjustment, there will be such a period of pain. The stock market fluctuates greatly, and the foreign exchange market is not much better, but we have to think about it, is this an opportunity to rearrange and adjust? Economic development has always had ups and downs, everyone can be happy when it rises sharply, and we must be calm when it falls. Whether it is an investor or an ordinary person, have a stable mentality and don't be led astray by short-term fluctuations.
But back to the roots, the depreciation of the renminbi and the turmoil in A-shares actually reflect part of the global economic game. The economic policies of China and the United States have changed as soon as they go out and into the market, and the direction of capital flows has changed, which is the general trend. The question is, how do we deal with it? Should we continue to allow the exchange rate market to adjust freely, or should we intervene? Obviously, this decision cannot be handled simply. As for the stock market, the "stepping on the brake" behavior of reducing holdings does make the market unstable in the short term, but in the long run, it is understandable for major shareholders to reduce their holdings and cash out, and people have to find a way.
Therefore, the focus of our people still has to be on the general trend. Market fluctuations are inevitable, and exchange rate ups and downs are not new. The current economic environment is like a game on a rainy day, and you expect every player on the pitch to play steadily, and that's too difficult. If you fall, you will fall, and there is often a turning point hidden at the end of the shock.
So in the end, I would like to ask: the depreciation of the RMB and the turmoil in the stock market, do you think this is just a short-term market reaction, or a long-term economic "weather vane"? What do you think about this?