Key takeaways:
- In March, the month-on-month index of 70 cities showed a positive month-on-month index, and the year-on-year trend may continue to decline. In March, the price index of newly built commercial housing in 70 cities across the country fell by 0.3% month-on-month, and the price index of second-hand housing fell by 0.5% month-on-month, which was generally in a state of continuous improvement, but the price index of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing in 70 cities fell by 2.7% and 5.9% year-on-year respectively, and the decline is still expanding. At present, the number of cities with falling housing prices is still very large, especially in terms of second-hand housing, almost most of which are still falling.
- The decline in the price index of new homes in first-tier cities has narrowed, but the price index of second-hand houses has still fallen significantly. The three types of cities, whether new houses or second-hand houses, all showed a large year-on-year decline, indicating that this round of housing price index adjustment is universal and deep, but it cannot be confined to a single dimension of housing prices to judge the market. Considering the new round of relaxation of purchase restrictions and policy stimulus in key first- and second-tier cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, and Suzhou in the first quarter of this year, positive signals in the market may gradually emerge in the future.
- In March, Shanghai's new commercial residential price index led the 70 cities in terms of month-on-month growth, while the new housing market in Xi'an, Taiyuan, Chongqing and other cities also performed relatively well. Among them, Shanghai and Xi'an are cities with an overall strong property market in the past three years, indicating that the potential demand for housing is strong, or the market has a good foundation for recovery. For markets such as Taiyuan and Chongqing, the decline has been relatively large in the past. The current rebound in the new housing market means that some cities that have been overfalling in the past are now starting to enter the stage of stopping the decline and recovering.
- The month-on-month increase in second-hand residential prices in 70 cities is still fluctuating near record lows. Judging from the actual transaction situation of the second-hand housing market, although the transaction volume of second-hand housing in various places has been repaired, it is based on the basis of "exchanging price for volume", indicating that the real estate market in 70 cities is still early to stabilize. It is expected that in the next six months, the month-on-month increase in the second-hand residential price index in 70 cities may still remain in the "overcooling area". Considering the transmission mechanism of "second-hand housing-new housing-land market", we believe that we should pay attention to the second-hand housing market and take the initiative to continue to make efforts in the second-hand housing purchase policy.
One
1. Month-on-month indicators: the month-on-month decline in the prices of new and second-hand houses has narrowed
According to the "Changes in Residential Sales Prices in 70 Large and Medium-sized Cities in March 2024" released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the E-House Research Institute conducted a simple arithmetic average of the sales price indices of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities. In March 2024, the price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points from the previous month, and the price index of second-hand residential buildings fell by 0.5% month-on-month, narrowing the decline by 0.1 percentage points this month after falling for 11 consecutive months. In the first quarter of this year, the month-on-month index of the housing price index of 70 cities across the country was generally in a state of continuous improvement, that is, the decline continued to narrow. In the first quarter, the housing purchase policies in various places were actively optimized and adjusted, the pace of home buyers entering the market accelerated, and the market expectation also improved the performance, which made the trend of continuous decline in housing prices improved, and some cities began to turn from falling to rising.
2. Year-on-year indicators: the prices of new and second-hand houses continued to decline year-on-year
Based on the simple arithmetic average of the sales price index of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities, it is calculated that in March 2024, the price index of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing in 70 cities will decline by 2.7% and 5.9% year-on-year respectively, an increase of 0.76 percentage points and 0.75 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month. It can be said that although the month-on-month decline in house prices in 70 cities has narrowed recently, from a year-on-year perspective, the downward pressure on house prices still exists. At present, the prices of newly built commercial housing in 70 cities have been declining year-on-year for 24 consecutive months, while the year-on-year decline in second-hand housing prices has lasted for 26 months. Considering that the month-on-month decline in the prices of new and second-hand houses in 70 cities has lasted for a long time and has fallen significantly, this trend may continue to have a drag effect on the year-on-year indicators of the housing price index in the coming period. Therefore, it is foreseeable that the year-on-year decline in newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing may further expand in the future. This will have an important impact on the stability of the real estate market and the expectations of home buyers.
3. Number of cities: The number of cities with falling prices of new houses decreased slightly, and the number of cities with falling prices of second-hand houses increased slightly
In March 2024, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the number of cities with new commercial housing prices rising, flat, and declining was 11, 2, and 57, respectively. Compared with the previous month, the number of rising cities increased by 3, the number of flat cities decreased by 1, and the number of falling cities decreased by 2. We believe that the increase in the number of similar cities fully shows that some cities have begun to take the lead in the repair of the fundamentals of the property market and the adjustment of price indicators. It should be noted that since the fourth quarter of last year, the number of cities that have risen has been around 10 overall, which means that about 15% of the 70 cities are relatively strong. All localities should pay attention to such strong cities, learn from the experience of policy optimization, and continue to help other cities quickly get out of the falling range.
The number of cities where the price of second-hand housing has risen is only 1, the number of cities that have not remained flat, and the number of cities that have fallen is as high as 69. Compared with the previous month, the number of cities with rising prices of second-hand housing decreased by 1, the number of cities remained unchanged, and the number of cities that decreased increased by 1. At present, the number of cities with falling housing prices is still very large, especially in terms of second-hand housing, almost most of which are still falling. However, considering the new round of relaxation of purchase restrictions and policy stimulus in key first- and second-tier cities such as Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, and Suzhou in the first quarter of this year, positive signals in the market may gradually emerge in the future.
Two
This report performs a simple arithmetic average of the sales price index of newly built commercial housing and the sales price index of second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in the first, second and third tiers.
In March 2024, the price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities fell by 0.2% month-on-month, second-tier cities by 0.3%, and third-tier cities by 0.4%. Among them, the month-on-month decline in first-tier cities narrowed by 0.15 percentage points, the month-on-month decline in second-tier cities remained unchanged, and the month-on-month decline in third-tier cities narrowed by 0.03 percentage points. The narrowing of the decline in new housing prices in first-tier cities is the most obvious, which also shows the basic logic of this round of property market recovery, that is, cities with large urban scale and strong demand for housing will take the lead in becoming the pioneer of the property market to stop falling and rising. This, in turn, has inspired other cities to do a good job of population, especially young people, in order to support the current demand for home purchases. In terms of second-hand housing, the prices of second-hand houses in the three types of cities fell by 0.7%, 0.5% and 0.5% month-on-month respectively, narrowing by 0.07, 0.12 and 0.08 percentage points respectively from the previous month.
From the perspective of year-on-year indicators, the price index of newly built commercial housing in first-, second- and third-tier cities fell by 1.5%, 2.0% and 3.4% respectively in March, with a decline of 0.43, 0.89 and 0.68 percentage points, respectively, while the price index of second-hand housing fell by 7.3%, 6.0% and 5.7% respectively, with a decline of 1.1, 0.81 and 0.67 percentage points respectively.
At present, the price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities is still relatively large, continuing to lead the country, while the price of new housing in third-tier cities has fallen relatively largely, while second-tier cities are relatively in the middle. The trend of housing prices in the three types of cities reflects that the market is still hovering at the bottom, but we cannot be confined to the single dimension of the housing price index to judge the market. In the first quarter of this year, many key cities across the country continued to introduce various housing purchase support policies, some of which were very strong, such as Shanghai issued policies to support non-household registration single people to buy houses, Suzhou completely canceled the purchase restrictions on new and second-hand houses, Hangzhou completely canceled the restrictions on the purchase of second-hand houses, and Shenzhen canceled the "70/90 policy". It shows that all localities continue to attach importance to reasonable housing consumption demand, and continue to implement loose policy guidance in reducing the cost of housing purchase and encouraging housing purchase. It is expected that in the next 5-6 months, under the effect of the policy, although the overall decline cannot be reversed temporarily, the decline may continue to narrow.
Three
City ranking: Shanghai led 70 cities in terms of month-on-month increase in the price of newly built commercial housing
In March 2024, the top 10 cities with the largest month-on-month increase in the price index of newly built commercial housing were Shanghai, Beihai, Xi'an, Chongqing, Taiyuan, Zunyi, Jilin, Dali, Pingdingshan and Nanchong, while the cities with the largest month-on-month decline in the price index of newly built commercial housing were Nanning, Kunming, Nanjing and Jinhua. There are several important characteristics of the cities with the highest price growth of new homes, among which Shanghai and Xi'an are cities with an overall strong property market in the past three years, indicating that the potential demand for housing is strong, or the market has a good foundation for recovery. For markets such as Taiyuan and Chongqing, the decline has been relatively large in the past. Especially for Chongqing, the first quarter of this year's housing price growth continued to rank high, from the end of last year 40th in the country to the current 4th in the country (and Taiyuan level), which has signal significance, which means that some cities that continue to overfall are now beginning to enter the stage of stopping, recovery and rebound.
In terms of the second-hand residential price index, the cities with a month-on-month increase were Fuzhou, and the cities with a relatively small month-on-month decline were Taiyuan, Nanchang, Huizhou, Zunyi, Yueyang, Shijiazhuang, Nanchong, Beihai and Chongqing. The second-hand housing prices in Shenzhen and Guangzhou have fallen significantly month-on-month, which also shows that their housing prices have been in a large bubble before, so now asset prices have shrunk very significantly. Of course, on the other hand, this also shows that the prices of second-hand houses in first-tier cities are being actively adjusted, and it also creates a better foundation for subsequent stabilization and recovery.
Four
Trend prediction: The month-on-month index of second-hand residential prices in 70 cities is still in the "overcool" range
Observing historical data, in October 2021, the month-on-month growth curve of the second-hand residential housing price index in 70 cities fell into the "overcooling zone" for the first time since March 2015, and has been generally in a low-level consolidation stage since then. Although the indicator briefly recovered to the "cold zone" and the "reasonable zone" in February-April 2023, the market soon took a sharp turn again, hitting the lowest value of the current cycle of -0.8% in November 2023. In March 2024, the second-hand residential price index in 70 cities fell by 0.5% month-on-month, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but still fluctuated near the lowest value in history.
Judging from the actual transaction situation of the second-hand housing market, although the transaction volume of second-hand housing in various places has been repaired, it is based on the basis of "exchanging price for volume". In fact, this is also a key stage in the de-emergence of housing price bubbles, and after the price of some houses has fallen, their subscription cost performance will also begin to improve. From this point of view, compared with the past two years, this year is a relatively cheap year to buy second-hand houses, and buyers in need can pay attention to second-hand houses in some high-quality school districts.
Our follow-up judgment on the second-hand housing price index in 70 cities is: first, the real estate market in 70 cities is still early to stabilize, and further efforts are needed to stabilize real estate. Second, in the next six months, the month-on-month increase in the second-hand residential price index in 70 cities may still remain in the "overcooling area". Considering the transmission mechanism of "second-hand housing-new housing-land market", we believe that we should pay attention to the second-hand housing market and take the initiative to continue to make efforts in the second-hand housing purchase policy.