In March, the prices of new and second-hand homes continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline in the completion of investment in office building development narrowed High frequency to look at the macro
author：CBN
1. CBN China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index
On April 23, 2024, the CBN China High Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) was 1.00, down 0.01 from April 16. In the week ending April 23, the positive indicators "30 cities commercial housing sales index" and "import dry bulk freight price index" both increased by 0.01, while the "8 cities subway traffic index" fell by 0.04, which is an important reason for the decline of YHEI this week.
In March, the prices of new and second-hand homes continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline in the completion of investment in office building development narrowed High frequency to look at the macro
Second, the overall judgment of the weekly situation
Both billet and cement prices continued to rise this week. Billet prices rose 0.88% in the week ended April 23, up 1.17% over the past month and down 4.17% from a year earlier. Cement prices rose 0.45 percent in the week ended April 23, rose 1.85 percent over the past month and decreased 21.05 percent from the same period last year. Thermal coal prices have fallen by 1.66% over the past month and by 2.73% from the same period last year.
In the week ending April 23, the central bank had zero net funding through the open market. Bank overnight rates rose 8 basis points in the week ended April 23, down 2 basis points over the past month and up 9 basis points from a year earlier. The seven-day repo rate remains in line with a week ago, down 15 basis points over the past month and 20 basis points from a year earlier.
The National Bureau of Statistics publishes real estate development investment data. From January to March, the amount of real estate development investment was 2,208.237 billion yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year, and the decline was 0.5 percentage points larger than that from January to February. In March, the cumulative year-on-year decline in the completion of real estate development investment in residential and commercial buildings widened to 10.5% from 9.7% and 7.0% in the previous month, respectively, while the cumulative year-on-year decline in the completion of investment in office buildings narrowed to 0.4% from 3.2% in the previous month.
In terms of sales prices, in March, the price index of new and second-hand houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell by 2.7% and 5.9% year-on-year respectively, and the decline rate expanded by 0.8 percentage points compared with February. Among them, in terms of new homes, the price index of first- and second-tier cities has been in the negative year-on-year growth range for several months, and the decline has been expanding month by month, while the price index of third-tier cities has decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, the highest decline in nearly a year. In terms of second-hand housing, the price index of first-tier cities fell by 7.3% year-on-year in March, which dragged down the year-on-year growth rate of the second-hand housing price index, while the price index of second-tier and third-tier cities fell by 5.9% and 5.7% respectively. On a month-on-month basis, in March, the price index of new and second-hand houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities also declined. Among them, the second-hand housing price index is close to the level of July 2018.
In terms of sales volume, in March, year-on-year, the average daily transaction area of new and second-hand houses in first-, second- and third-tier cities declined. High-frequency data as of April 23 showed that in April, the year-on-year decline continued. Among them, in April, the average daily transaction area of new houses in first-tier cities was 63,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 42.01%, and the decline rate was larger than that in March, while the average daily transaction area of second-hand houses in first-tier cities and new and second-hand houses in second- and third-tier cities decreased year-on-year compared with March. On a month-on-month basis, in April, the average daily transaction area of new homes fell to 235,600 square meters from 284,100 square meters in the previous month, while the average daily transaction area of second-hand houses increased by 20,400 square meters from the previous month to 250,600 square meters.
3. Weekly data (2024.4.17-2024.4.23)
1. Central bank monetary operations
In March, the prices of new and second-hand homes continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline in the completion of investment in office building development narrowed High frequency to look at the macro
In March, the prices of new and second-hand homes continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline in the completion of investment in office building development narrowed High frequency to look at the macro
2. Interest rates and social financing
In March, the prices of new and second-hand homes continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline in the completion of investment in office building development narrowed High frequency to look at the macro
In March, the prices of new and second-hand homes continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline in the completion of investment in office building development narrowed High frequency to look at the macro
In March, the prices of new and second-hand homes continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline in the completion of investment in office building development narrowed High frequency to look at the macro
In March, the prices of new and second-hand homes continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline in the completion of investment in office building development narrowed High frequency to look at the macro
In March, the prices of new and second-hand homes continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline in the completion of investment in office building development narrowed High frequency to look at the macro
In March, the prices of new and second-hand homes continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline in the completion of investment in office building development narrowed High frequency to look at the macro
3. Corporate sector
1) Secondary sector
In March, the prices of new and second-hand homes continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline in the completion of investment in office building development narrowed High frequency to look at the macro
In March, the prices of new and second-hand homes continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline in the completion of investment in office building development narrowed High frequency to look at the macro
In March, the prices of new and second-hand homes continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline in the completion of investment in office building development narrowed High frequency to look at the macro
In March, the prices of new and second-hand homes continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline in the completion of investment in office building development narrowed High frequency to look at the macro
2) Shipping
In March, the prices of new and second-hand homes continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline in the completion of investment in office building development narrowed High frequency to look at the macro
3) Real estate market
In March, the prices of new and second-hand homes continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline in the completion of investment in office building development narrowed High frequency to look at the macro
In March, the prices of new and second-hand homes continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline in the completion of investment in office building development narrowed High frequency to look at the macro
In March, the prices of new and second-hand homes continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline in the completion of investment in office building development narrowed High frequency to look at the macro
4. Global perspective
In March, the prices of new and second-hand homes continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline in the completion of investment in office building development narrowed High frequency to look at the macro
In March, the prices of new and second-hand homes continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline in the completion of investment in office building development narrowed High frequency to look at the macro
In March, the prices of new and second-hand homes continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline in the completion of investment in office building development narrowed High frequency to look at the macro
In March, the prices of new and second-hand homes continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline in the completion of investment in office building development narrowed High frequency to look at the macro
(Source of the title map of this article: Yicai)
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Text | Li Jiayi is a researcher at the China Business Research Institute
In March, the prices of new and second-hand homes continued to decline month-on-month, and the decline in the completion of investment in office building development narrowed High frequency to look at the macro
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