Gold: While the U.S. and European countries favor Israel from escalating the situation, multiple sources said the IDF has decided how to counter Iran and its proxies, but the timing has not yet been determined. This signal means that the geopolitical friction in the Middle East is very likely to worsen at any time in the coming period, and once a full-scale war breaks out in the Middle East, it is not impossible for gold prices to rise further under the effect of risk aversion.
However, the recent further depreciation of the yen, the European Central Bank president said that interest rates may be cut in June, and the Fed continues to delay the timing of interest rate cuts, which means that the dollar index is likely to remain strong in the short term, and investors need to pay attention to the risk of a correction in gold prices.
Technical: On the daily line, the market fell from the high level and closed the small black line on the previous trading day, alerting to the risk of further decline in gold prices. However, it has maintained a high level of shock adjustment for many consecutive trading days recently, and it is expected to continue in the short term. During the day, pay attention to the first-line pressure of $2390 above, and pay attention to the first-line support of $2330 below.
Gold price chart: Gold hourly chart
Crude oil: Because Israel is not a major oil producer, Iran's drone and missile attacks on Israel have not had a material impact on crude oil supply. Israel is now preparing to hit back at Iran, which is one of the main oil producers in the Middle East, and its current output is maintained at 3.18 million b/d, and if Israel retaliates against oil facilities in Iran, the market expects a decline in Iranian oil production, which will undoubtedly push oil prices higher.
However, on Wednesday (April 17) evening, the EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ended April 12 recorded an increase of 2.735 million barrels, slightly exceeding market expectations of an increase of 1.373 million barrels, which was bearish for oil prices, and oil prices weakened significantly.
Technical: On the daily line, the market fell strongly on the previous trading day and closed the black line, indicating that the short-term market is weak. In terms of indicators, the market has effectively broken through the 20-day moving average, which may open up room for decline in the short term, and be wary of the risk of oil prices testing the $80 line. During the day, pay attention to the first-line pressure of $84 above, and the first-line support of $81 below.
Crude Oil Price Chart: Crude Oil Hourly Chart
Important Notice: The above content and views are provided by the think tank of the third-party cooperation platform and are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.