When a U.S. diplomat visited China and a Chinese and Philippine ships confronted each other for eight hours, why was China able to "stand by and wait for the rabbit"? What is the connection between the Ukrainian front line and Marcos Jr.'s sudden recognition of the "gentlemen's agreement"?
Confrontation between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, China "Waits for the Rabbit"
Hello everyone, welcome to Chiming World. As soon as the Iranian airstrikes ended, there was another incident in the South China Sea. On the evening of April 13, a Chinese coast guard ship and two Philippine official vessels faced off for eight hours near the nine-dash line in the South China Sea. With the incident just 35 kilometers off the coast of the Philippines and the first trilateral summit between the United States, Japan and the Philippines on April 11, the standoff is of unusual significance.
The Financial Times believes that China's move is likely to be a countermeasure to the US-Japan-Philippines summit meeting. At the meeting, Biden, Fumio Kishida and Marcos Jr. jointly expressed concern about China's "dangerous and aggressive behavior" in the South China Sea. Biden also reiterated that the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty applies to the Armed Forces of the Philippines and beached warships at Second Thomas Shoal.
After receiving assurances from the United States and Japan, the Philippines quickly launched an operation. The two official ships sent by the Philippines this time, an oceanographic research vessel and an escort ship belonging to the Philippine Coast Guard, are scheduled to go about 148 kilometers north of Scarborough Shoal to conduct so-called "hydrographic surveys."
But while crossing the "nine-dash line," the two ships were intercepted by Chinese coast guard vessels, and the two sides faced off for more than eight hours. It was not until the morning of the 14th that the Philippine ships were able to continue their voyage in a northwesterly direction.
As soon as the Philippine vessel crossed the nine-dash line, it was intercepted by the Chinese coast guard, a situation that had never been seen before. This shows that the Chinese side has been prepared for a long time and has predicted the Philippine side's actions in advance. On the one hand, the reason for such a prediction is that on April 11, the United States, Japan and the Philippines held their first trilateral summit.
The visit of US diplomats to China has put a lot of pressure on Ukraine
On the other hand, from April 14 to 16, the U.S. Department of State's Assistant Secretary for Asia-Pacific Affairs Kangda visited China and met with Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu. The two sides mainly discussed the situation in the Middle East, the South China Sea, and Taiwan. According to the Philippines' usual urine nature, whenever there is an important meeting between China and the United States, Philippine ships will always create provocations in the South China Sea in an attempt to undermine the consensus that China and the United States may reach, so that it can better take advantage of the great power game between China and the United States to fish in troubled waters in the South China Sea. In order to prevent this from happening, the Chinese side had to make preparations in advance.
It should be noted that the officials sent by the United States to visit China this time are not of high rank, but only assistant secretary of state, which is equivalent to China's vice foreign minister. Such a level does not determine any major matters. So why is the Philippines so enthusiastic about stirring up trouble in the South China Sea?
In fact, although the level of the Sino-US talks is not high, it has touched on many sensitive issues. For example, during Kangda's visit to China, a key word was mentioned, that is, "reducing miscalculations". U.S. officials at the meeting also said that while U.S.-China communication channels have largely normalized after months of high tensions, China's "support for the Russia-Ukraine war poses a risk to efforts to stabilize relations."
It is not difficult to see that Kangda's visit to China this time is to put forward conditions, hoping that China can reduce its support for Russia and let Ukraine under heavy pressure take a breather. Recently, due to the intensification of the offensive by the Russian army, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Syrsky, has issued a warning, saying that the situation in eastern Ukraine has "seriously deteriorated". At the same time, Zelensky is also brewing a large-scale conscription plan, and it is not even ruled out that a large number of women will be mobilized to fight.
However, soldiers alone are not enough, Ukraine also needs a lot of weapons from the United States, especially air defense systems. On April 15, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba sharply criticized the United States for cutting military aid to Ukraine in an interview. He also threatened that if the United States can increase military aid to Ukraine, then Ukraine will consider stopping attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Conversely, without substantial military aid commitments, dialogue will be meaningless, as countries are struggling to ensure their survival.
Since the beginning of March, Ukrainian drones have frequently attacked Russian oil refineries, causing international oil prices to rise and inflation in the United States to remain high. In this regard, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that the US side does not support Ukraine's attack on Russian territory. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin also pointed out that Ukraine can choose to focus on military targets, because attacks on Russian oil facilities could disrupt the international energy market.
However, Ukraine did not listen to the advice of the United States, but instead regarded the attack on Russian oil facilities as a bargaining chip to blackmail the United States, and threatened to continue to attack the Russian mainland if it did not provide assistance.
In the face of this situation, the United States is also quite helpless. Although the current Biden administration is very keen to resume aid to Ukraine, the Republicans who control the House of Representatives have refused to pass the relevant proposals, and the House of Representatives has recently been planning aid to Israel, and Ukraine has actually been marginalized.
The United States turned to China for help, and the Philippines feared abandonment
In order to ease the pressure of the war in Ukraine, the Biden administration can only turn to China in the hope that China will stop supporting Russia. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who visited China in recent days, also made similar demands, saying that he would seek China to reduce its economic support for Russia and pressure Moscow to participate in peace talks on Ukraine and resolve the conflict on terms acceptable to Kyiv.
The Chinese side has different views on these demands of the West. In a statement, the Chinese side said that in response to China's recent promotion of the so-called "Indo-Pacific strategy", the United States has "adopted a series of erroneous words and deeds related to China in its neighborhood, especially cobbling together the small circle of the United States, Japan and the Philippines and disrupting the situation in the South China Sea, and China has made clear its solemn position on this, and demanded that the United States refrain from engaging in bloc confrontation and undermining peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region."
The Chinese side also clarified its position on Taiwan, economic, trade, science and technology, and people-to-people exchanges, and demanded that the US stop interfering in China's internal affairs, stop obstructing China's development, stop unreasonable sanctions on Chinese companies, and stop suppressing China's economy, trade, and science and technology.
It can be seen that one of the main contradictions between China and the United States at present is that the United States hopes to obtain China's help on issues such as Ukraine and the Middle East. However, the United States is not willing to pay any price for this. On the contrary, the United States has continued to infringe on China's core interests on issues such as the South China Sea and Taiwan. This makes it difficult for China and the United States to reach cooperation in these areas.
The Philippines is worried that the United States may choose to abandon the Philippines in order to seek China's support. Or use the Philippines as a bargaining chip in a deal with China in the event of a misfire in the South China Sea. As the United States turns to China more and more on Ukraine and the Middle East, the Philippines will become more concerned and more motivated to sow discord between China and the United States.
Marcos Jr. admits "gentlemen's agreement", Duterte or held accountable?
For example, on 15 April, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. was asked at an event under what circumstances would Manila activate the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty"? In this regard, Marcos Jr. said that US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin had already explained this issue very well, and if any Filipino soldier died in an attack launched by any foreign power, that would be the time to activate the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty."
At the event, Marcos Jr. also took the initiative to mention the recent "gentlemen's agreement" between China and the Philippines, which has aroused heated discussions. According to Philippine media reports, Duterte's former spokesman Harry Roque recently said that the former Philippine government reached a deal with China, in which Manila promised not to repair the landing ship USS Sierra Madre "beached" at Second Thomas Shoal, and China promised to maintain the status quo in the South China Sea.
In response to Harry Roque's revelations, Marcos Jr. said that he was sure that Duterte had reached a "secret agreement" with China, because China could not make up something out of nothing without a deal at all. In his own mind, this is enough to prove the existence of a similar agreement.
Just last week, Marcos Jr. denied the existence of a "gentlemen's agreement" between China and the Philippines, citing that he had never seen the relevant documents or records. He also said that if China and the Philippines had signed the document, it would be "appalling" to the country's sovereignty.
Now, Marcos Jr. has not only acknowledged the existence of the "gentlemen's agreement", but also held his predecessor Duterte accountable for the matter. "Why isn't there a single document that contains that agreement?" and why no one mentioned this secret agreement during the transition between the previous and current governments?" Marcos Jr. demanded that the former president make the issue clear and disclose all the agreements he had with Beijing.
One of the reasons why Marcos Jr. first denied the agreement, then suddenly admitted and announced that he would hold Duterte accountable? One of the reasons may be that last week, Duterte made a rare public criticism of Marcos Jr., calling him a "whiner" and believing that Marcos Jr.'s too pro-American stance would put the Philippines in danger.
In order to settle the relevant controversy, Marcos Jr. had to "clarify" to the outside world, saying that the Philippines would not approve the use of more military bases by the US military. But in fact, the number of military bases available to the United States has reached nine, and many of them are located in areas close to Taiwan. In addition, after the summit between the United States, Japan and the Philippines, Manila and Tokyo will sign a "mutual access agreement" to clear legal obstacles for the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to enter the Philippines.
These practices have aroused the dissatisfaction of Duterte and other politicians, and even Marcos Jr.'s sister has criticized him. At this time, Marcos Jr. openly admitted the existence of the "gentlemen's agreement" between China and the Philippines, the purpose of which was to suppress these opposition opponents who did not obey him by inciting nationalist sentiments, and by the way, find an excuse to tear up the agreement. At the same time, Marcos Jr. also wanted to use this incident to show loyalty to foreign powers and prevent the Philippines from being abandoned.