On April 29, 2019, in Mumbai, India, voters hold out their marked fingers. Xinhua News Agency
India's general election begins on April 19 with a phased vote, with nearly 1 billion voters deciding in a little more than a month whether incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi can become prime minister three times.
Under Modi's India, the economy is growing rapidly, and his own image as a strongman is deeply rooted in the country, while his main rival, the long-established National Congress Party, has also been on the verge of two defeats. In the third term, can Modi win voters? How will the opposition electoral coalition led by the Congress Party deal with the election campaign?
Large volume, high cost, and long duration
India is a federal country with a bicameral parliament divided into the Council of States and the Lok Sabha. General elections in India refer to the Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament. The Lok Sabha has 545 seats, of which 543 are elected, except for two seats appointed by the President. Lok Sabha elections are held every five years, and the party or coalition of parties that wins the majority of seats in the election has the right to form a cabinet.
People gather at a market in New Delhi, India, April 26, 2023. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Javed Dahl)
Many media outlets have used the term "huge" to describe India's general election. India registered 968 million voters this year, more than the population of the United States, the European Union and Russia combined, according to official figures. The election lasted from April 19 to June 1 in seven phases, with the results announced on June 4.
In addition, the cost of India's general election is also very high. India's 2019 election "burned" $8.6 billion and is expected to cost more this year, according to the Center for Media Research.
It is reported that the voting method for India's general election is electronic voting, and more than 1 million polling stations have been set up across the country, and about 15 million staff have been arranged. India, where about a quarter of India's population is illiterate, has given each party a sign to distinguish itself by allocating common items such as "ceiling fans, combs and mangoes" to make it easier for voters to cast their votes.
The manufacturing industry is retreating, the unemployment rate is high, and the bottom is suffering
Modi served as prime minister twice in 2014 and 2019, and he is widely expected to be re-elected. In the previous two general elections, the BJP won 282 and 303 seats respectively. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies are aiming to win more than 400 seats in this general election. Modi's biggest "signature" is the fruits of economic development. India is currently the fifth-largest economy in the world. According to data released by the Indian government, the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2023 increased by 8.4% year-on-year. However, some media and experts have pointed out that the economic performance of the Modi government is not as impressive as advertised, and the development results have not really benefited the people at the bottom.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, center, celebrates his victory in the general election at the BJP headquarters in New Delhi, India, May 23, 2019. Xinhua News Agency
The Modi government came to power in 2014 with a "Make in India" strategy, but the manufacturing sector has not contributed much to India's economic growth. The Modi government's original goal was to increase the share of manufacturing in GDP to 25% by 2022, up from 16% in 2015. However, in 2022, this share was 13%.
The real recession in the manufacturing sector has led to high unemployment in India. According to the "Hindu" newspaper, India's "Center for the Study of Developing Society" recently conducted a survey of 10,000 voters in India and found that 27 percent of the respondents were most concerned about unemployment, followed by rising prices, accounting for 23 percent.
Sixty-two percent of respondents to the survey believe that finding a job has become more difficult in the past five years. "Overhiring" is prevalent in India's service sector, where two or three people do jobs that would otherwise require only one person.
Farmers at the bottom of the country, failing to benefit from the reforms and economic development, launched a "march into Delhi" protest, demanding that the government set minimum prices for crops, provide pensions for the elderly, and forgive farmers' debts.
Prominent Indian historian Ramhandra Guha predicts that the Modi government will have to rely more on Hindu nationalism in order to win. Some analysts in the United States pointed out that in the run-up to the third term, Modi's program is obviously tinged with "Hindu nationalism".
It is still difficult for opposition parties to "form groups" and "block" them
Modi's main opponent is the once-long-ruling Congress party. In the 2014 elections, the Congress Party, which had Rahul Gandhi as its candidate for prime minister, lost power to Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) by a large margin. In an effort to prevent Modi from being re-elected, the Inclusive Alliance for India's National Development, an opposition coalition led by the Congress Party, was formed in July last year, with the acronym "INDIA", the same spelling as "India". After the formation of this alliance, India staged a drama of "changing the name of the country".
People line up to vote in Mumbai, India, April 29, 2019. Xinhua News Agency
Some officials within the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have called for the country's name to be changed from "India" to "Bharat". Hindu nationalists in India advocated the use of the name "Bharat" as more in line with Indian history, and the word "India" bears a deep imprint of British colonialism.
Indian political analyst Zoya Hassan believes that the new name of the opposition coalition highlights nationalist elements, and the Bharatiya Janata Party is trying to follow the same line and change the country's name to "Bharat" in order to maintain the party's dominant position in terms of nationalism.
Since the beginning of this year, India's Enforcement Directorate has arrested a number of opposition leaders and local chief ministers on charges of money laundering and bribery. In addition, government agencies have frozen campaign funds for the Congress Party. The opposition has repeatedly accused the BJP of using its administrative advantage to weaken its opponents.
Despite these crackdowns, the opposition coalition has become "unprecedentedly united", but the majority of its members are regional parties, and it has so far failed to come up with a targeted governing philosophy and lacks a core leader who can rival Modi's popularity. Public opinion generally believes that although the opposition is "grouped" to fight, it is still difficult to "block" Modi. (According to Xinhua International)