In our 354th auction pre-market analysis on April 16, we voted on the price forecast for whole milk powder, skim milk powder, cheese, butter and anhydrous cream. The results of the vote were as follows:
1
Auction Overview
From May 2023 to October 2024, the total amount of delivery decreased year-on-year, and anhydrous cream continued to decrease compared with the forecast. Auctions edged up 0.1%, with mixed prices, with the average price rising to $3,590, butter cheese underperforming, 17,654 tonnes sold, down 5.8%, and buyer participation rates continued to decline.
The average change of each variety:
354th GDT Major Buyer Transaction Ratio:
In this auction, the overall participation rate of Chinese buyers in varieties other than butter and cheese has decreased significantly, especially anhydrous cream, but due to the purchase inertia, they still continue to occupy the top spot in whole milk powder, skim milk powder and butter, while Southeast Asia has returned to the market again, and the overall participation rate has increased by 5% , to make up for the loss of market share in the mainland, especially in the whole milk powder, together with the Middle East contributed to the slight increase in the variety, in addition to anhydrous cream and cheese is also the largest share of purchases;
The Middle East's purchasing power has returned, with better performance in whole milk powder and anhydrous cream, and the shift to online by African customers, who have been buying mainly offline, has also contributed a lot to the continuation of the road to new highs for anhydrous cream.
2
Auction results of the main varieties
Price results for each contract period for the main varieties: April 16 Bidding results: May 2024 to October 2024 delivery.
Anhydrous cream led the gains, while cheese led the decline.
3
Comparison of arrival cost and spot cost of major varieties in the future (RMB/ton, exchange rate 7.25, arrival month)
Whole milk powder is now balanced, and skim milk powder is more upside down.
4
After-hours reviews of the main varieties
1. Anhydrous cream: The tight spot supply of anhydrous cream, coupled with the high offline price increase of major manufacturers, makes the influx of buyers continue to push up oil prices, but it is obvious that it is difficult to maintain such a high price when the new season arrives after November, and it is recommended to have a back sign to order.
2. Butter: In addition to Chinese mainland buyers, other regions are wary of such a high price of butter, and there is a surplus of domestic cream, when domestic butter is prevalent, it is unwise to carry the price of industrial brands and play against the manufacturer's own catering brand.
3. Cheddar cheese: Given the large decline in cheese this time and the fact that it is approaching the end of the season, it is possible to buy the dip.
4. Skimmed milk powder: The overall inventory in New Zealand this season is not much, which makes the variety resistant, but the oversupply in the next season, coupled with the domestic more sprayed skim milk powder, it is estimated that the variety still has no big opportunity in the future.
5. Whole milk powder: The return of Southeast Asia is the main driving force for the slight rise of whole milk powder, and the situation in the Middle East has deteriorated again, which also makes the oil kings can only continue to overbuy, but for Chinese buyers, the current price difference with the big brand domestic milk powder is close to 10,000 yuan, which will be an insurmountable gap in consumption decline.
5
Review
The external disk's strong support for whole milk powder cannot change the reality that domestic milk powder will continue to shift to domestic powder on a large scale, and the overall arrival volume has increased compared with last year, which also makes it difficult for spot prices to continue to rise.