The post-auction sharing in this issue is provided by Mr. Huang Yi, the butter champion of the "First Bulk Dairy Trader Grand Prix".
354CCT 20240416
The 354th round of GDT tenders came to an end on Tuesday evening.
Except for cheese varieties, the four mainstream products were mixed, all of which fluctuated in a small range. Whether it is milk powder or oil, it seems to be stable, but it is a dilemma.
Combined with the results of this round of bidding, I would like to briefly share the experience and views of several main varieties:
1
Whole milk powder
With the release of the pressure of the New Zealand supply side this season, the bullish sentiment of some domestic merchants has been ignited again, and the spot price has also risen all the way, and finally stayed at the resistance level of 27,500 yuan, which is slightly inverted with the GDT bidding cost, facing a dilemma.
On Thursday, New Zealand suppliers adjusted their plans for the next 12 months and the new season. In other words, there is an increase and a decrease, and in the end, it does not increase or decrease, and a lot of effort has been spent on quantitative changes and language expression. Judging from the figures, the increase of more than 12,000 tons is easier to be interpreted by everyone, and this has led to the concern of most businesses about the decline in this round of bidding.
In the above context, in this round of bidding, whole milk powder fluctuated in a narrow range, with the weighted average price closing at $3,269, up 0.4%, and the main contract CP2 closing at $3,210, up 0.5% from the previous round. In terms of procurement ratio, China's North Asia region still occupies the top spot, followed by Southeast Asia and the Middle East, Africa, Central and South America and Europe.
Before the bidding, the market for this round of bidding for whole milk powder trend is quite different, although some bullish businesses insist on bullishness, but the voice of the bears still gradually prevails. The increase in the future volume and the decline of domestic milk prices, the continuous spraying of domestic milk powder and the pressure on sales are important indicators of bears; the overall inventory of imported milk powder is not high, and the inventory is relatively concentrated, and the foreign demand is still strong, which is an important basis for the bulls; when communicating with many peers before bidding, my personal opinion is that in this context, this round of bidding and even the next few rounds of bidding, the probability is difficult to rise and fall, and it is a dilemma.
Looking ahead to the next few rounds of bidding in New Zealand before the end of the season, the supply side has made clever adjustments to the volumes. Under the premise that there are no major variables in the foreign market, the adjustment will most likely put the market in a delicate balance in the short term. On the one hand, in the face of the huge price difference between domestic milk powder and imported milk powder, most domestic buyers dare not venture in; on the other hand, due to the rigid demand for imported milk powder, some buyers will still be promoted to enter the purchase.
At the present stage of the market, I am afraid that I will not make money if I buy goods, and I am afraid that I will not be able to sell if I do not buy goods; the market is still so fragile, and when there is a wind and grass, it is like a bird with a frightened bow, and the grass and trees are all soldiers. Everyone loves and hates whole milk powder, which reminds people of the lyrics "It's not easy to say I love you".
The New Zealand season is coming to an end, and the basic situation of this season has been decided, so it is recommended that everyone start to plan for the new season. As for the future trend of the market, it needs to be verified by several more rounds of bidding and more transactions.
2
Skim milk powder
脱脂奶粉在本轮拿了个“鸭蛋”。
In this round of bidding, the weighted average price of skim milk powder closed at $2,541 ($2,550 in the previous round), which should have fallen slightly, but finally it was a flat of "0.0%". I wanted to get a few points, but I had no choice but to take a "duck egg", which made people who are bullish on skim milk powder "embarrassed". Fortunately, the main contract CP2 of New Zealand skim milk powder closed at $2,550, up 2.6% from the previous round, slightly driving the sentiment index. China remains the largest buyer of skim milk powder in New Zealand. Southeast Asian buyers and European buyers also purchased a lot of skimmed milk powder in this round.
After the last round of bidding, the market demand for skimmed milk powder is still in a relatively sluggish state, although the spot price of skim milk powder has increased slightly due to the increase in GDT Pulse last week, but the actual transaction price is still not high, and the transaction volume cannot be enlarged.
From the point of view of bidding price, the results of the last round of bidding, the price of skimmed milk powder is low in recent months and high in far months, but in this round of bidding, although the price of near-month contracts has risen, the contract price in far months has declined month-on-month, which seems to indicate that the market's views on the long-term skimmed milk powder market are different from those in the previous round.
At this stage, skimmed milk powder in Europe and the United States has no chance to enter China in the short term due to price problems, and although New Zealand skim milk powder is cheap, due to market demand, the price is hovering at a low level, which is also a "love and hate".
If the market demand for skimmed milk powder continues to be sluggish, as a large number of skimmed milk powder that has been postponed in the early stage of the shipment gradually arrives in the next few months, there will be greater selling pressure in the domestic skim milk powder spot market.
For skimmed milk powder, I maintain my previous view: we should pay close attention to the changes in domestic inventories and whether the market demand in several important application areas is picking up. On the premise that the price is attractive enough, the change in market and demand is the key to breaking the situation.
3
butter
In this round of bidding, butter ushered in a long-awaited decline, but it did not affect its continued role as the most popular and concerned.
Due to the rise in the last round of bidding and the gradual consumption of domestic low-price inventory, the spot supply of butter was once tight, and the spot price rose again, and finally encountered resistance above 1400 yuan per box, but the price has far exceeded the previous budget of the vast majority of merchants, and the market transaction began to shrink gradually.
In this round of bidding, the weighted average price of butter closed at $6,546, down 1.4% from the previous round, and the main contract CP2 closed at $6,580, down 1.3% from the previous round. North Asia, where China is located, topped the list in terms of procurement percentage, followed by Southeast Asia. It is worth noting that compared with the enthusiasm of the previous round, buyers in the Middle East, Africa, Europe and other regions have basically turned off in this round.
Although the price of butter has fallen slightly in this round, due to the sharp reduction in the expected arrival volume in China in the future, it is expected that the market's forecast for butter demand and price will still be relatively optimistic.
At the same time, because the absolute price of butter is at a relatively high level, for most buyers, they are faced with the embarrassing situation of not buying and selling, and before there is no round of decent callback, the buyers who dare to enter the market to purchase are very limited. This creates another dilemma, "it's not easy to say I love you" product. In the context of high price points, it is recommended to purchase on demand according to their respective circumstances.
4
Anhydrous cream
In this round of bidding, anhydrous cream still retains the title of "crazy oil essence".
The weighted average price of bids closed at $7,062, up 1.7%, and the main contract CP2 closed at $7,080, up 0.4% from the previous round, further closer to the highest price of $7,111 two years ago (the weighted average price of GDT bidding in Round 304).
Southeast Asian buyers continue to occupy the top spot, followed by Africa, the Middle East, Central and South America, and Chinese buyers may really feel the "high and cold", and the enthusiasm for this round of procurement has declined sharply.
Before the bidding, anhydrous cream was already hard to find, and the price continued to hit new highs. However, as prices continue to rise, transactions have begun to shrink gradually, which also reflects the gradual decline in the overall market acceptance in the context of high prices, except for buyers who have to use them.
Looking back on the past ten years, anhydrous cream of more than 7,000 US dollars is the second time, and whether it can go higher and further in the future needs to be verified by the actual demand at home and abroad after the bidding and the acceptance of the price and cost of each business. At this price, perhaps only real demand can enter the market to continue purchasing, and only real "warriors" dare to move forward more vigorously.
Compared with several other products, anhydrous cream is really "it's not easy to say I love you".
At this stage, the prices of several mainstream products are in a dilemma, and the prediction of future prices and demand will become more and more difficult in the short term, which requires us to continue to pay attention to and discuss in the ever-changing market.