1. Compared to the last auction and the same period last year: the change in the number of GDT placements
Compared with the previous period, anhydrous cream continued to decrease significantly, mainly due to the reduction of high-grade anhydrous cream, compared with last year, except for cheese, the supply of all varieties still shrank, compared with the auction announcement on April 2, the decrease in anhydrous cream was more obvious.
Estimated volume for the next four placements (tons)
The supply of all varieties decreased compared with last year, but the supply of whole milk powder in May increased by 2,530 tons compared with the previous supply, but decreased by 2,423 tons in June, indicating that the sales of whole milk powder this season are insufficient, and it is still necessary to rush to produce some more goods at the end of the season;
Medium- and long-term forecast for future launches: It is expected that in the next 12 months, the supply of whole milk powder will increase by 12,133 tons to 363372 tons, causing the futures market to decline.
2. Domestic spot prices
Domestic spot prices in early April and the transaction price of the last auction (taking CP2 as an example)
Due to the sharp rise in the last auction, and the spot has been raised before the auction, the phenomenon of large inversion of various varieties has been improved, and the anhydrous cream and Cheda cheese are still positive profits.
3. Peripheral related news surface
1. China's monitoring of the market prices of 50 important means of production in 9 categories in the national circulation field shows that in early April 2024 compared with late March, 20 products rose in price, 26 decreased, and 4 remained flat, of which chemicals/non-ferrous metals/live pigs continued to rise;
2. U.S. economic data: According to data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on the 15th local time, U.S. retail sales in March increased by 0.7% month-on-month, higher than market expectations. Retail sales rose 0.7% month-on-month in March, down from 0.9% in February but higher than consensus expectations, driven by sales growth in online products and gas stations.
3. Exchange rate issues: Good economic data is pouring in, CPI continues to be high, and the US dollar is strong.
4. The latest production data of major international dairy exporters are released: Argentina fell 13.6% as of February 24, Australia increased by 6.8% as of February 24, New Zealand increased by 1.7% year-on-year as of February, the annual output of the 27 countries of the European Union fell by 0.8% as of January, the United States output increased by 0.40% as of February, and Uruguay increased by 5% as of February.
5. Major demanders Brazil rose 2.0% from January to December, Japan (up 1.7%) as of February, Mexico as of February (+1.6%), the United Kingdom as of February as of 1.2%, Russia as of February (+3.0%), and Turkey as of January as of 4.7%; Major demanders excluding China edged up 1.8%.
6. Milk prices continued to fall, due to the fluctuation of the powder spraying policy caused by the replacement of deputy leading personnel, the price of off-contract milk in major producing areas has been forced to 1 yuan per kilogram, and Ningxia and Xinjiang are even lower than this level.
7. Spot delivery of domestic dairy enterprises: the promotion of domestic powder of leading dairy enterprises, and the clearance of imported milk powder and whey is in full swing.
8. International futures market: Suppressed by the increase in the release of whole milk powder in New Zealand, the futures market reacted quickly, and the price of whole milk powder fell from the position a week ago.
9. Fresh milk prices: According to statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture, as of March 21, the average price of fresh milk in 10 major producing areas such as Inner Mongolia and Hebei was 3.53 yuan/kg, down 0.6% week-on-week and 11.1% year-on-year.
Fourth, price trend forecasting
Anhydrous cream: supply continues to shrink sharply, with fewer foreign alternatives, and prices are expected to continue to strengthen.
Unsalted butter: the supply is insufficient, prices in Europe and the United States continue to be at a high level, and domestic demand is firm and bullish.
Cheddar cheese: the overall global oversupply, domestic cheese production has not seen a significant improvement, the last big rise exceeded expectations, bearish.
Skimmed milk powder: The overall supply abroad has begun to climb, and the demand has also fluctuated due to the start of the ice beverage season, but the supply in New Zealand is relatively stable, and there are slight fluctuations.
Whole milk powder: the amount of milk powder has been increased, the domestic demand is bleak, and the import inventory in the early stage is high and bearish.
Whole Milk Powder Auction Price and Dairy Online Pre-auction Voting Results (as of the 353rd auction)