Production is reduced in the upstream, there is a shortage in the downstream, and the non-ferrous sector is creating wealth
01
Non-ferrous metals rose against the trend
Non-ferrous metals, this time it really broke out!
Around the Spring Festival, cyclical stocks began to rise sharply, from coal to oil, to ships, and now it is the turn of nonferrous metals.
Since March 1, 124 of the 139 stocks in the Shenwan non-ferrous metals industry have achieved positive returns, of which 39 stocks have risen by more than 20%, and Northern Copper has led the way with a 68% increase.
By April 8, the non-ferrous metal sector was completely "crazy", and the northern copper, the oriental zirconium, and the silver nonferrous metals all rose by 10cm and were on the hot stock list.
On April 11, this "heat wave" continued, Zijin Mining's share price refreshed the high point of the year, and the leading stocks of the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index generally rose.
The stock market is becoming clearer and clearer, new energy does not know when it will rebound, AI stocks have been lying in the nest, and now A shares are going to gold, silver, copper, aluminum led by the periodic table market!
The first thing that led this round of the market was gold.
Driven by expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut and gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, gold has been on a wild run.
"The price of gold has risen crazy", "The price of pure gold jewelry has exceeded 700 yuan per gram", and "The price of gold has reached a new high" have become frequent visitors to the hot search list.
Gold prices soared in New York, setting new all-time highs. The domestic basic gold price also rose to 554 yuan/gram from 481 yuan/gram at the end of February, also hitting a record high.
Such a crazy gold price is probably a market that most people have never seen in their lives!
Affected by this, the gold sector of the capital market has also reached an unprecedented high. The stock prices of Sichuan Gold, Yintai Gold, Shandong Gold and other gold concept stocks have repeatedly hit highs.
Gold-related ETF funds have been soaring, such as gold ETF (159834) has risen by nearly 15% since February!
And the scale continues to rise, the latest scale of the largest gold ETF in the whole market is nearly 14.7 billion yuan!
Gold's rise is not only due to its safe-haven attributes, but also the result of a combination of factors such as global economic recovery, inflationary pressures and monetary policy easing.
After that, industrial metals will also rise, and even have more room to rise. Because, like gold, it is an important raw material for industrial production and investment, and is affected by both economic recovery and inflationary pressures.
A round of magnificent colored markets is coming.
The opportunity to invest in non-ferrous metal ETFs is also here!
02
New Wealth Opportunities?
The heating up of the non-ferrous sector provides people with a new investment idea.
Non-ferrous metals generally refer to all metals except iron (and sometimes manganese and chromium) and iron-based alloys.
It can be divided into precious metals (such as gold, silver, platinum), heavy metals (such as copper, lead, zinc), light metals (such as aluminum, magnesium), and rare metals (such as tungsten, molybdenum, germanium, lithium, lanthanum, uranium).
The deep reason for this round of non-ferrous market is actually one sentence: the supply side is constrained, the demand side continues to pick up, and the market is in short supply, resulting in a rapid rise in prices.
In the past few years, the price of industrial products has been based on demand, because of the elasticity of supply; in recent years, due to policy reasons such as dual control of energy consumption and carbon neutrality, as well as industry reasons such as industrial alliances, the supply side has been constrained, and the price of industrial products has also turned to supply, and the price of products has been rigid, that is, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall.
The Fed's interest rate cuts usually weaken the dollar, while non-ferrous metals such as gold, copper, and aluminum are usually denominated in US dollars, which may further stimulate the rise in the price of upstream resources, including non-ferrous metals.
Industrial metals, led by copper, ushered in a rare supercycle in recent years, and copper prices hit a new high in the past decade.
At the same time, the superimposed control of carbon dioxide emissions, the goal of "achieving carbon peak by 2030, carbon neutrality by 2060", the long-term demand prospect of clean energy is optimistic, and the rapid development of photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage and new energy vehicles will drive the long-term growth of copper demand.
Taking batteries as an example, the rapid growth of production and sales has stimulated the demand for upstream non-ferrous raw materials. In 2020, the global demand for copper foil was about 190,000 tons, and with the rapid growth of the battery industry, the demand for copper foil is expected to grow to more than 970,000 tons in 2025, and the demand for upstream non-ferrous materials is strong.
Therefore, non-ferrous metals have entered a "pro-cyclical", both the price and the stock price of related companies, as well as related funds are performing strongly, and the investment value is optimistic.
To put it more bluntly, in the era of de-bubble and de-leveraging, real assets are on the rise, and this trend will continue.
So the biggest problem for ordinary investors is how to invest when the market comes?
In the case of gold rising and non-ferrous metals rising, the best choice for domestic investors to enjoy the dividends of this wave of rising asset prices is to buy non-ferrous ETFs.
After all, for most investors, they prefer the secondary market of non-ferrous metals rather than the futures market.
However, it is really difficult to choose from a wide variety of classifications and many listed companies with different colors. In addition, the secondary market of non-ferrous metals is closely linked to the price of commodity cycles, and it is difficult for ordinary investors to thoroughly study various fields and stocks and fully grasp the trend of the industry.
Compared with allocating a single stock or investing in futures, allocating ETF funds is more suitable.
This can not only greatly reduce the risk of individual stocks stepping on mines, but also widely cover the price fluctuations of a single product diluted in various subdivisions of the non-ferrous industry.
For ordinary investors, it is simply an "artifact" to catch the next wave of rising market.
03
The market is coming, how to invest?
To choose a suitable fund, there are two main things to look at:
One is the quality, and the other is the achievement.
In terms of fineness, the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) is the first to be launched.
It is the largest non-ferrous metal ETF in the market and the first non-ferrous metal industry theme ETF in the market.
In addition, the industry coverage is accurate, the purity is high! Non-ferrous metals belong to many subdivided industries, if you want to cover various fields, reproduce the industry trend, the requirements for the amount of funds are larger, ordinary investors are difficult to achieve. According to the Shenwan secondary industry display, the index covers key sub-sectors of non-ferrous metals such as gold, industrial metals, and rare metals.
It has accurately tracked various industries of non-ferrous metals, and it can be said that the purity is quite high.
Stock selection is also quite particular, and its constituent stocks are all leaders in subdivided industries. A closer look shows that the cumulative weight of the top ten constituent stocks of the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) accounts for more than 50%, which also makes it possible to obtain higher returns.
According to the data, the ETF has a cumulative return of 16.28% in the past month, which is much higher than the same level and significantly outperforms the market.
It can be said that it is the best among the cycle varieties.
With excellent past performance and pure color, there are really not many non-ferrous products on the market that can be compared.
For those who are not accustomed to trading on the floor through securities accounts, they can also subscribe to feeder funds over-the-counter for investment: CSI Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF initiates Feeder A(004432)/C(004433).
As the saying goes, choice is more important than hard work, and now the tuyere is coming to see if you can grasp it.
What's more, on the policy side, the benefits of the non-ferrous metal sector are also accelerating.
On March 13, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association organized a symposium on copper smelting enterprises in Beijing, and the main persons in charge of 19 domestic copper smelting enterprises attended the meeting.
The meeting reached a consensus: first, to continue to promote the adjustment of the structure of copper raw materials, second, to reach an agreement on adjusting the rhythm of smelting production, and third, to reach a consensus on raising the entry threshold and strictly controlling the expansion of copper smelting capacity.
From this point of view, the supply side is afraid that it will continue to shrink and continue to promote the price side to continue to rise.
At present, China's economic prosperity is on the rise and interest rates are on the downside, and the market will not ebb too quickly.
In the face of such an opportunity, instead of being reluctant to enter the market, it is better to choose a good way and tool to take the initiative, and maybe there will be unexpected gains.