Although China has repeatedly expressed its opposition to the militarization of space, the United States still focuses on China's efforts to use space resources peacefully, and continues to exaggerate the prospects for the militarized use of space as a result of China's technological innovation. In the past few days, the China Academy of Astronautics, a think tank of the US Air Force, released a report saying that China is training satellite operators to prepare for a wider range of satellite refueling services in orbit, and called it a key capability for space logistics management in peacetime and wartime. We all know that the Y-20 tanker is called the "wet nurse" of the fighter, so the effort to refuel the satellite can also be called the "space wet nurse" program. Compared with the in-flight refueling of fighter jets, which can greatly improve long-range combat capabilities and mission flexibility, once China obtains a mature refueling capability for space satellites, it can greatly extend the maneuverability and service life of satellites in space. With the importance of space-based satellite reconnaissance and communication capabilities to future warfare, such capabilities can certainly greatly enhance the strength of space warfare.
The U.S. report claims that "over the past six years, a Chinese company has said it is developing satellite tankers for service missions to satellites in geosynchronous orbit." "As early as 2016, China's first successful space refueling of the Orbital Guardian was considered an important milestone. However, if a wide range of satellite refueling is to be carried out, space-based refueling by a professional satellite operator is required, which requires the training of the relevant personnel. China is developing a simulation tool for training satellite refueling operators, which is designed to replicate scenarios of the space environment and in-orbit service satellites for training, evaluation, mission scheduling and technical testing, with the main tasks currently involved in refueling and debris removal. China put an abandoned Beidou navigation satellite into low-Earth orbit in 2021 and was considered a successful test.
China's provinces and municipalities have included the development of on-orbit service technologies in the 14th Five-Year Plan, which means that we are developing this capability as an industry. U.S. Space Command Commander Gen. Stephen Whiting recently said that space has become a "growing security challenge" and highlighted China's rapid development in military space capabilities. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence's 2023 Annual Threat Assessment highlights China's orbital technology demonstration potential for future space-based counterspace weapons. According to the National Space Intelligence Center of the U.S. Space Force, China is developing a potentially weaponized satellite inspection and repair system. In conclusion, the U.S. intelligence community asserts with a high degree of confidence that the PLA has in-orbit service capabilities.
Obviously, China's focus on developing satellite in-orbit service capabilities is having a serious psychological impact on the US military. We do not deny that China's development of on-orbit service capabilities is also of a dual-use nature. For example, the ability to drag a scrapped satellite into a graveyard orbit can also damage a functioning satellite, as can the ability to clean up space junk. China's focus on satellite in-orbit refueling services looks more strategic. Because the life of an in-orbit satellite is extended, the cost can be exponentially reduced compared to launching a brand new satellite. In particular, the launch cost of some strategic-level heavy-duty satellites is very, very high, such as the need for a heavy-duty rocket like the "Fat Five" to complete. And we only launch satellites that can refuel such satellites, or space shuttles, and often only need a solid rocket with a fast launch, or a small reusable launch vehicle.
What we can expect is that once China matures its satellite refueling service, the number of Chinese satellites in orbit will improve significantly over a long period of time, and satellites will also be able to perform more maneuvers to perform more complex tasks. The prospect that the iteration of Chinese satellites will be mainly based on aging and performance improvement, rather than being limited by fuel, is very exciting.