Since March this year, China, the world's largest grain importer, has caused widespread concern about the large-scale postponement of orders or the cancellation of orders from the United States and Australia in the international wheat market. Originally, this should be a very normal trade operation, but in the current context of the white-hot game between China and the United States, things are a little delicate. It was only in April that the outside world noticed what China's series of actions had brought to the international market.
It was the Japanese media Nihon Keizai Shimbun that discovered that something was wrong. According to related reports, Chinese wheat buyers began to cancel and postpone orders from the United States and Australia on a large scale in March. As the world's largest grain importer, China's actions have a significant impact on the international wheat market. By April 9, wheat prices had fallen sharply in several futures markets around the world, down 10% from the beginning of the year. Compared with the data in July, the highest peak last year, it is about 30% lower.
The U.S. media is obviously much more excited about this matter. According to the US media, the cumulative number of cancelled wheat orders in the United States has reached 504,000 tons, what is the concept of this number? Last year, in 2023, China's total wheat imports from the United States will be 926,000 tons. The situation is even worse on the Australian side, where nearly 1 million tonnes of wheat have been postponed and cancelled.
At present, the outside world is still mainly "watching" on this matter, and there are many analysis and speculation. On the one hand, the reduction of international prices is due to the bumper wheat harvests in Russia and Brazil, which has greatly reduced international wheat prices. On the other hand, China, the largest buyer, will definitely drop the outlook for large-scale order cancellation, which will directly hit international wheat prices. Some people in the industry even expect that if international wheat grain prices continue to fall, China may even have to refund the batch of wheat from France.
This matter has been discussed a lot in the US media, that is, China has ulterior motives. Of course, it's not directly said, many of them are insinuations, taking the game between China and the United States, and saying that China's current order cancellation operation. To put it mildly, the United States is frantically politicizing and weaponizing its trade with China. If the United States can do these things, China can't do them now? It's the same on Australia's side, where China is a little more pleasant and begins to follow the United States and engage in anti-China activities. In this case, China and Australia should take what they need, and they should not have any diplomatic relations. In the business field, economic interests can open the way.
One thing to say, in terms of market relations, both Russia and Brazil have opened their markets to China, the prices are cheaper, and the exchanges are easier.
Moreover, for a long time, Western countries have relied on their own agricultural technology, and after attacking the agriculture of other countries, they have used food security to choke the lifeblood of a country, so as to achieve economic colonization. Over the years, China has always insisted on abiding by the red line and grain independence, for fear of being choked by the West and thus directly controlling a nation. For the United States and Australia, China's successive withdrawals will produce a grim truth. In the past, the West could rely on its political influence and military deterrence to buy and sell by force. But not now, after China cancels the order, these goods will directly enter the international market, compete with countries such as Russia and Brazil, involute, and it is impossible to lie down and make money as in the past. For the United States, which is in the midst of a financial crisis, it is another huge loss. In the past, it was nothing, but it was fatal at a critical time.