Author: Cheng Mo
Executive summary: 1. Iran's large-scale air attack on Israel; 2. The international community's response to Iran's attack on Israel and its follow-up development; 3. The spokesman of the Ukrainian Air Force revealed that in addition to F-16 fighters, it will also introduce "Gripen" multi-role fighters and other aircraft produced in Sweden; 4. Germany has decided to provide Ukraine with one more Patriot system; 5. The Russian army has intensified its offensive on the line of contact in Donetsk; 6. Senior advisers during the Trump administration disclosed in their memoirs that Trump believes that Ukraine is part of Russia.
On April 14, local time, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that in response to Israel's crimes, including the attack on the consular office of the Iranian embassy in Syria and the death of several military personnel, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force used dozens of drones and missiles to launch strikes against certain Israeli targets.
In a second statement released shortly thereafter, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that in response to Israel's crimes, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) used its strategic intelligence capabilities, missiles and drones to attack important military targets on Israeli territory, successfully hitting and destroying them, as international organizations, particularly the UN Security Council, did not condemn Israel's attacks on Iranian diplomatic institutions.
Iran's airstrikes on Israel lasted about five hours, and the Israeli government announced the lifting of air raid alerts at around 1 p.m. Beijing time today. Iran's mission to the United Nations earlier noted that the retaliatory actions against Israel were over and threatened that Iran would fight back more violently if Israel repeated.
Just a few hours before the attack, Iranian Foreign Minister Abdollahian posted on international social media that he said in a phone call with the Foreign Minister of the Netherlands, Belgium and Cyprus on the same day (13th) that Iran had informed the United States of Iran's imminent retaliatory air strikes against Israel through the Arab allies of the United States, and warned the United States that if it intervened in the dispute between Israel and Iran, the US troops stationed in the Middle East would be hit.
(Israeli air defense systems fire in multiple places)
According to the statements issued by the Israeli government and the British, American, and Jordanian militaries, as well as Israeli media reports, huge explosions sounded in the early morning of the 14th in Israel's Jerusalem, Beersheba, and Dimona; Iran launched a total of about 200 drones and dozens of missiles; American and British troops stationed in Iraq and Syria intercepted more than 100 targets outside Israel's airspace; and Jordanian Air Force warplanes shot down dozens of Iranian drones, which were intercepted while flying over northern and central Jordan.
IDF spokesman Hagari said that Iranian drones and missiles were launched from multiple locations, that Iranian drones were intercepted outside Israeli airspace, that only a few of the dozens of surface-to-surface missiles entered Israeli territory, that almost all drones and missiles were intercepted before they landed, that infrastructure at IDF bases in southern Israel had been slightly damaged, and that a girl had been slightly injured in the drone and missile strikes, possibly having been frightened and fell rather than being hit by the wreckage of the drone or missile.
The United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, the European Union and several European countries condemned Iran's attack on Israel in the immediate aftermath of the attack. Britain decided to urgently increase aircraft to the Middle East.
Two hours after the attack, U.S. President Joe Biden posted on social media platform X, reiterating his support for Israel. "I just met with the national security team for an update on Iran's attack on Israel," he said. Our commitment to Israel's security from threats from Iran and its proxies is unbreakable. Biden also accompanied a picture of him holding a meeting with the national security team in Washington.
Biden then spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reiterate that support for Israel is rock-solid. U.S. President Joe Biden then issued a statement strongly condemning the attack on Israel by Iran and its proxies, and announced that he would convene a meeting of G7 leaders to coordinate a diplomatic response to the matter.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin had a telephone conversation with Israeli Secretary of Defense Gallant on the same day, during which the two sides discussed the immediate threats facing the Middle East region, and the U.S. side reaffirmed its firm support for Israel's defense against Iran's attacks.
(Biden meets urgently with the national security team)
UN Secretary-General António Guterres immediately condemned Iran's attack on Israel and called on Iran to exercise restraint and immediately cease hostilities.
At Israel's request, the United Nations Security Council will convene an emergency meeting on Sunday (April 14) to discuss Iran's attack on Israel.
Iran's attack on Israel this time is just like Iran's retaliatory attack on US military bases in Iraq when Soleimani, the Iranian military god and supreme commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was beheaded by the US military a few years ago. Judging by the latest statement of the Iranian mission to the UN, this fireworks show in Iran has ended.
Iran's purpose in doing so is very clear: in order to calm the pressure of domestic public opinion brought about by the beheading of Iran's senior generals, and at the same time demonstrate Iran's invincible military strength, Iran has to show some tough postures; however, because of the strong military power of the United States and Israel, Iranian policymakers can only play a false role in retaliation in order to prevent the other side from carrying out larger-scale beheading operations, and will never dare to really bring serious harm to Israel.
Israel is expected to launch a powerful retaliatory strike against Iranian targets soon, but because Iran's attack on Israel is only cosmetic, with only a slight damage to the flowers and plants in the open space of one military base, and even a few soldiers suffering minor concussions, as Iran attacked a US military base in Iraq a few years ago, Israel's retaliation should not be a major attack on Iranian soil, mainly large-scale air strikes on Iranian military targets in Syria, while not ruling out attacks on individual iconic targets in Iran.
Iran's retaliation against Israel is a false act aimed at appeasing its own population, and it has neither the ability nor the guts to endanger Israel's security; If Iran plays big and inflicts heavy casualties on Israel, the Israeli Air Force and advanced medium-range missiles will carry out precise decapitation operations on important Iranian targets.
This large-scale Iranian air strike against Israel and the subsequent Israeli retaliatory strike against Iran are only an episode of the Kazakh-Israeli war, which will not have a major impact on the future situation in the Middle East and will never trigger new turmoil in the Middle East. Don't believe the hype in the media.
Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Major Ilya Yevrash said on April 13 that at least 150 aircraft are needed to conduct effective air operations, noting that the Ukrainian Air Force will be equipped with F-16 fighters, Gripen multi-role fighters produced in Sweden and other aircraft for a comprehensive upgrade.
Yevrash said that the Ukrainian army will use F-16s to augment Ukraine's existing ground-based air defense systems to defend against Russian "Shahed" drones, cruise missiles and other missile attacks, and to limit the movement of the Russian Air Force in frontline areas. Yevrash noted that even two squadrons, about 18 F-16 aircraft, can have a significant impact on the situation in Ukrainian airspace and relieve the strained pressure on the Ukrainian air defense system.
At present, the number of F-16 fighters in the first batch of aid to Ukraine is 65. Zelenskyy said on April 6 that the F-16 fighter jets promised by Ukraine's Western partners accounted for only 10% of the fighter jets Ukraine needed to defeat the Russian aviation threat. I think Zelensky has too much appetite - if Ukraine has 650 F-16 fighters, it will have more modern fighters than Russia. Not to mention whether Ukraine needs so many modern fighters, the training of Ukrainian pilots cannot keep up. By the end of this year, the number of qualified Ukrainian pilots trained will be far from enough to fly the 65 F-16 fighters that will soon be in possession.
It is generally believed that the F-16 fighter will not be put into service until June this year at the earliest. Many readers complained about the inefficiency of the Western camp and even considered the deliberate delay in the delivery of Ukrainian F-16 fighters. In fact, Ukrainian pilots will only start training in October 2023, while the standard training time for F-16 fighter pilots is 18 months. It is precisely because of the urgent needs on the battlefield in Ukraine that the United States and NATO member states have negotiated and significantly accelerated the training of Ukrainian pilots. Some self-media don't know how to pretend to understand, thinking that driving a modern fighter to fight in the sky is as easy as driving a go-kart. The 18-month training course is compressed into 8-9 months, how can it be fast?
As for why the Western camp did not immediately assist Ukraine with F-16 fighters and start the training of Ukrainian pilots before or shortly after the outbreak of the war, or sent retired Western F-16 fighter pilots to Ukraine, the main reason is that Russia is a nuclear power, and the Western camp has tried its best to avoid direct involvement in the war in Ukraine, so it has to adopt this strategy of "boiling frogs in warm water and stewing geese over slow fire". Of course, the main reason is that Western politicians are not as smart as many self-media authors in Chinese Simplified Chinese networks, let alone as bold and courageous.
(Swedish "Gripen" multi-role fighter)
Germany's Ministry of Defense announced on April 13 that Germany will immediately transfer another Patriot system to Ukraine to defend against Russia's ongoing strikes on Ukraine's energy grid.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky posted on international social media on April 13 thanking German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for approving the delivery of additional Patriot missile systems and providing more anti-aircraft missiles at a "critical moment" in Ukraine.
Zelensky revealed that he had an "important and productive" phone call with Scholz. "I thank the Prime Minister for his decision to provide Ukraine with additional Patriot systems, as well as missiles for use in existing air defense systems, and I call on the leaders of other allies to follow suit. ”
At the same time, he revealed that Germany and Ukraine are discussing the supply of additional IRIS-T air defense systems - this is a very advanced short- and medium-range air defense system produced in Germany.
According to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba, the Ukrainian side is intensively implementing the addition of seven "Patriot" air defense systems. If all deployed are in place, the threat of Russian missiles to Ukrainian cities will be largely removed. So far, only the Patriot system has achieved effective interception of Russian hypersonic missiles.
Podolyak, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine and adviser to the president, said in an interview on April 13 that Ukraine's Patriot anti-aircraft missiles and IRIS-T missiles have not yet been exhausted, but the supply of missiles is "seriously insufficient" and has to be reduced. Germany's latest aid is undoubtedly a relief in the face of the snow.
(Germany re-aids Ukraine "Patriot" air defense system)
The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Syrsky, posted on international social media on April 13 that the Russian army suffered heavy losses in the attack in eastern Ukraine, but also made tactical progress.
He said that the situation in eastern Ukraine has deteriorated significantly in recent days, and the Russian army is conducting mechanized assaults in the direction of Lyman, Bakhmut and Pokrovsk (west of Avdiivka). In dry and warm weather, the movement of the Russian army has become easier, allowing Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers to carry out surprise attacks on Ukraine. "In recent days, the situation on the Eastern Front has become more tense, mainly in connection with the large-scale offensive operations launched after the presidential elections in Russia," he said. ”
Syrsky said that the Ukrainian army is strengthening the front-line defense with electronic warfare systems, air defense systems, drones and anti-tank missiles. He said the Ukrainian army also needs to improve the quality of training, especially infantry units, to optimize their use of the limited and dwindling weapons and equipment provided by the West.
Syrsky's latest article was interpreted by many media outlets as the Russian army has captured some Ukrainian positions in the recent offensive and may suffer an even greater setback. However, based on a large number of video materials and statements from various sources, I do not see a significant change in the line of contact between the two sides. The suspension of US military aid to Ukraine does have a great impact, but the Ukrainian army has definitely not reached the point of running out of ammunition and food.
In the past two days, there have been media reports that the positions of the Ukrainian army in the village of Bohdanivka, west of Bakhmutbo, have fallen, but the Ukrainian Defense Ministry denied this in a statement on April 13. According to the Ukrainian side, heavy fighting has indeed continued in the area in the past week, and a Russian commando team reached the northern outskirts of the village in one night, but "Bohdanivka is now under the control of the Wehrmacht." ”
(Ukrainian artillery opened heavy fire on the Russian army)
According to Forbes and other U.S. media outlets on April 12, former Trump adviser Fiona Hill revealed in her new book that Trump said during his presidency that he believes Ukraine "must be part of Russia."
Hill served as senior director for European and Russian affairs at the U.S. National Security Council under Trump, so her revelations about Trump's policy toward Ukraine are quite authoritative.
The former senior Trump administration official said in his just-published memoirs that Trump had explicitly told her: "You know, Ukraine, and of course Crimea, must be part of Russia." Trump added: "He simply can't understand the idea that Ukraine is an independent country." ”
Trump's views are exactly the same as those expressed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in his nationally televised speech during the invasion of Ukraine, as well as in his many subsequent public speeches. This may be Trump's real motive for blocking the passage of the Ukraine aid bill by the US Congress.
According to the Ukrainian side, there have been 76 battles on the front line in the past 24 hours, with the most intense fighting taking place in the area around Bakhmut.
According to the news released by the Russian Ministry of Defense on the 13th local time, the Russian army has fully controlled the village of Wuyi southwest of Avdiivka, Donetsk region; The two sides fought fiercely here for a long time.
On the 781st day of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Ukrainian General Staff announced the battle losses of the Russian army (including Russian local, enterprise, and separatist groups) in the past 24 hours as follows: 890 Russian troops were annihilated (killed and seriously wounded), and a total of 453,700 Russian troops were annihilated; Destroyed 5 tanks, 20 armored vehicles, 2 air defense systems, 1 rocket launch system, 63 fuel tankers and logistics heavy-duty vehicles, 12 sets of special equipment (mainly electronic warfare equipment), 34 artillery pieces, intercepted 34 suicide drones, 1 missile.
(Russian army battle losses counted by the Ukrainian side on April 14)
Based on various information, I roughly estimated that the losses of Ukrainian officers and soldiers were about 94,000, of which the number of dead and seriously injured was also 1:1, and more than 20,000 Ukrainian civilians were killed. The warriors of Ukraine who died defending their homeland will return to heaven with glory and be with God.
Let us continue to pray that God will give peace and put an end to wars, that the wicked may be rewarded and the good be sheltered.