The picture shows the bombing of the Iranian embassy in Syria
The topic of this issue, Iran has vowed to retaliate against Israel, how will it retaliate?
Iran has had a hard time lately, with the bombing of the embassy killing seven people, including two senior IRGC officials. Before that happened, another terrorist attack broke out in the country, killing 15 people so far.
Israel has just bombed its embassy, extremist groups have come out again, and Iran has been holding back its anger lately. A consulate is the equivalent of a country's territory and is protected by international law. In the face of such serious provocations, Iran will certainly not just forget about it.
Pictured is Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
As soon as the embassy was bombed, the Iranian Foreign Ministry responded by threatening to retaliate, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Ali Khamenei also publicly stated that he would punish Israel and make them pay the price and regret what they had done. Judging from Iran's response afterwards, this retaliation is inevitable.
According to senior U.S. officials, Iran is now ready to retaliate against Israel and the United States within a few days. There is no greater concern for Iran's retaliation than the United States. Not only did he stand up for the first time to dissociate himself from the relationship, saying that Israel was not involved in the act and did not know about it, but also warned Iran at the UN Security Council not to take the opportunity to retaliate against the United States.
Pictured is Biden
According to U.S. officials, they are on "high alert" in response to Iran's imminent retaliation. In fact, it is understandable that the United States is so worried, because as long as Iran is attacked before, whether it is by extremist groups or Israel, US military bases and other facilities in the Middle East will be bombed by Iran, and this time the embassy will be bombed.
Many people may wonder why it is always the United States that is "hurt" in the contradictions between Iran and Israel? After the bombing of the embassy, Iran said the following sentence in a dialogue with the United States: "Do not fall into Israel's trap." After careful consideration, Iran meant that the attack was a trap set by Israel for the United States.
First of all, it is impossible for Israel not to know what it means to attack a country's embassy, and it certainly knows that it will usher in Iranian retaliation and may even lead to a full-scale war between the two countries. Netanyahu must have known this in his heart, so Israel's bombing of the Iranian embassy was intentional.
Pictured is Netanyahu
Recently, there has been a disagreement between the United States and Israel over Gaza. Netanyahu had a lot of opinions on the United States abstaining from voting on the resolution on the ceasefire in Gaza at the UN Security Council, and deliberately canceled his visit to the United States.
On the one hand, the Israeli Government is more worried that the United States will begin to hesitate to take sides with Israel on the Iran-Israel issue.
Then, Israel blows up the Iranian embassy, forces Iran to do it, and then pulls the United States into the water, so that Israel can rely on the United States to solve all the pressures it is currently facing. Given the current context in which Israel finds itself, this possibility is still very high.
At the same time, Netanyahu may also be trying to test the U.S. attitude towards Israel's attack on the Iranian embassy. If the U.S. attitude changes, Israel will have to think of other ways to deal with it, because it violates international law and provokes public outrage.
So, what is the attitude of the United States? After the incident, the Biden administration's first reaction was to dissociate itself from relations, and in response to Iran's warning, the United States did not say that it would help Israel to deal with it together, but only warned Iran not to strike at US facilities and personnel. In other words, the United States did not explicitly prevent Iran from retaliating against Israel, but only wanted to avoid the attack.
The picture shows the scene of the bombing of the Iranian embassy in Syria
First of all, this is obviously a pit dug by Israel, waiting for Iran to jump into it, and if retaliation against Israel itself is carried out, it will inevitably trigger a full-scale confrontation between the two countries, and the United States may also be forced to end the country, and Iran certainly does not want to see such a situation.
Therefore, the test for Iran is to retaliate reasonably without escalating the situation as much as possible. Overall, Iran's revenge is unlikely to be directed against Israel itself, otherwise it is too risky and will continue to escalate the situation. Therefore, it is likely that Iran will return the favor with its own way and attack the Israeli embassy. According to the prominent information revealed by US officials a few days ago, Iran may use drones and missiles to bomb Israeli embassies and other property facilities in Syria or other outside its borders, for which Israel has closed 28 embassies.
The picture shows the Lebanese-Israeli border
At the same time, Iran has supported many proxies in the Middle East, Hamas, the Houthis, Allah in Lebanon, etc., plus Iraq and Syria, together to form an axis of resistance, all of which have anti-Israeli and anti-American goals. Then, Iran does not have to take matters into its own hands, as long as it increases its support for these organizations and countries, so that they can walk on the front line of resistance to Israel and increase its attacks and harassment of Israel. In this way, Israel will face the dilemma of fighting on multiple fronts.
On 4 April, the IDF announced that the southern Israeli cities of Sderot, Ashkelon and Tiwot had been attacked by rockets and missiles, and that Jihad later claimed that they had done it. In addition, Iraqi militias launched a drone attack on the southern Israeli city of Ashdod on the same day, and two days later, the group launched an attack on an oil refinery in the northern Israeli port city of Haifa, while they also said they would continue to hit Israeli targets.
From this, it follows that Iran's retaliation has actually begun. The next step is to see whether Iran will end up in person or continue to let proxies ramp up their attacks on Israel. Given Iran's current attitude, it is highly likely that it will strike at targets outside Israel. If Israel overreacts and retaliates against Iran during this period, it is likely to lead to a further escalation of the situation.
As the saying goes, "one stone stirs up a thousand waves". Behind Israel's bombing of the Iranian embassy is not only the contradictions between Israel and Iran, but also involves the interests of the United States and many Middle Eastern countries. Under such circumstances, it is all the more necessary for all parties to treat the situation with seriousness and calmness, handle it cautiously, and avoid further escalation of the situation.