The five major positives led the market to bottom out and rebound, and the rise of bank heavyweights could not hide the decline of the index
Today's news:
The three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up on Friday night, with the Dow up 0.80%, down 2.27%, the Nasdaq up 1.24%, down 0.80%, and the S&P 500 up 1.11%, down 2.27%. Most of the large technology stocks rose, with Netflix and Meta rising more than 3%. The precious metals sector was among the top gainers, with Cordelon Mining up more than 12%, Pan American Silver and Newman Mining up more than 5%.
It is expected that the A-share market will maintain a volatile upward movement in April, and the most important main line is determined] CITIC Securities: It is currently in the revision period of domestic economic expectations and global liquidity expectations, and the A-share market is changing from incremental funds to stock capital games.
[A-share welcome five positives] good one: The central bank announced on April 7 the establishment of scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation re-lending - a quota of 500 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.75%. Good 2: Many cities have issued notices on the phased cancellation of the lower limit of the interest rate for commercial loans for the first home. Good 3: The China-US Business Working Group held its first vice-ministerial meeting. Good 4: In early April, a number of small and medium-sized banks in Shanxi, Henan and other places announced that they would cut their fixed deposit interest rates, ranging from 10 basis points to 40 basis points. Good five: Since the beginning of this year, there have been signs of reallocation of global funds. More than 90% of emerging market funds are overweight Chinese equities while reducing their holdings in Indian equities, according to HSBC Holdings. Since February, as of April 3, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 10%, much higher than the Mumbai Sensex 30 Index, which has risen by 3% over the same period, and is also seen as a signal that funds are starting to "sell India and buy China".
Choice data shows that last week, only 1 new stock of Guanghe Technology was listed, up 197.65% on the first day, with a single-signature profit of more than 17,000 yuan. In the context of the phased tightening of IPOs, this week, the new stock market will once again have a "0" new share subscription, which is the second time since the beginning of the year.
According to the latest data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, as of the end of March this year, the scale of the mainland's foreign exchange reserves has stood at the $3.2 trillion mark for four consecutive months, and at the same time, gold reserves have increased for 17 consecutive months, with a total of 10.1 million ounces, and the amount of increased holdings has exceeded 140 billion yuan if measured by the average price of the range.
Looking forward to the A-share market, institutional analysts believe that with the intensive disclosure of economic data, financial reports and institutional position data, the focus of market attention will return to fundamentals and profitability. In terms of allocation, it is recommended that investors continue to prefer the dividend strategy, and the performance of theme stocks may come to an end.
As of April 3, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 789.444 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.206 billion yuan from the previous trading day, the financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 708.014 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.401 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and the total of the two cities was 1497.458 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.607 billion yuan from the previous trading day.
[Net outflow of northbound funds of 3 billion yuan] As of the close of trading at noon, the net outflow of northbound funds was 2.967 billion.
This morning, the market opened 12 points 3057 points lower, bottomed out 3046 points, rushed 3077 points, and closed at 3063 points before noon. The SSE 50, CSI 300, the Shanghai Index, the Shenzhen Component Index, the ChiNext Board, the ChiNext Board, the CSI 500 and the CSI 1000 fell 0.43%, 0.44%, 0.17%, 0.75%, 0.96%, 1.24%, 0.38% and 0.72%. The ratio of individual stocks is 1220:4039, and the ratio of price limit is 46:22. The half-day turnover of the two cities was 600.7 billion, a decrease of 2.6 billion from the previous trading day.
Over the weekend, there are five major benefits for A-shares, and one should be added: only one new stock was listed last week, and zero subscription this week, which is the second time this year, which shows that the faucet of new stock expansion is getting tighter and tighter.
However, after the opening of the morning session, the market seemed to ignore these six positives, the four major ETFs and four major bank stocks of the national team, as well as the poor performance stocks of the large market, fell sharply, and the market fell to 3046 points. At this time, the four major bank stocks of the national team, as well as the five major heavyweights of PetroChina, CNOOC, China Shenhua, Sinopec and China Mobile, rose together, making the market rise to 3077 points. Helplessly, the net outflow of northbound funds was 2.96 billion, and 22 stocks with poor performance fell to the limit, and the rise and fall ratio of individual stocks was 1:3.5, which made the market fall back to 3063 points to close.
The rise of bank stocks and heavyweight stocks is due to the factor of protecting the disk, but more because the four major bank stocks fell to a low point in the morning, with a dividend rate of nearly 6%, which is obviously a good opportunity to buy the bottom and do T+0.
However, as the middle of April approaches, poor performance stocks and small and medium-capitalization stocks that were speculated in the early stage are worried that they will show their bottoms after the disclosure of the annual report, so they have dived out of the water and even fled. There were 22 stocks that fell in the morning, and 300 stocks fell by 5%, causing the top ten indices to fall.
In particular, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 2.41% and has fallen 24.4% this year, making it the index with the largest decline. There are two main reasons: one is that it is suspected of fraudulent listing and financial fraud, and before April 30, in the strict annual report accounting audit, it will be proved that the vast majority of junk stocks, many of which are listed on the fraud or foolishness. The second is that the Beijing Stock Exchange can lift the ban within one year, and the ban period has long passed, and many family business members hold less than 5% of the shares, so they can reduce their holdings without an announcement. Among the largest declines this year, the number of large and small non-holdings is huge. The Growth Enterprise Market also fell by nearly 1%, and the Science and Technology Innovation Board fell by 1.24%, and there is a similar situation with the Beijing Stock Exchange.
On the one hand, large-cap stocks such as banks, petroleum, petrochemicals, coal, electricity, and telecommunications have excellent performance, low valuation, and high dividend rates, and CSI 300 ETF, CSI 50 ETF, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF, bank stocks and the national team are covered, and there are social security, insurance, and foreign capital are optimistic, so the market index will not be bad. On the other hand, the underperforming and loss-making stocks in the small and medium-sized market caps will continue to dive frequently, which will become a burden on the rise of the broader market index. Of course, high-performing, low-valuation, and high-dividend stocks in small and medium-sized market capitalizations will still have beautiful performance. In short, the stock market is very focused on performance in April, and it is also important to pay attention to whether the first quarter report can show good growth.
This Thursday, economic data for the first quarter will be released, including CPI, PPI, imports and exports, consumption, investment, GDP data, etc. If the GDP data can reach 5%, then the market's expectations for economic recovery will be good, which will help the broader market index to ease the volatility.
Afternoon attention: Can the market close above the 20-week antenna at 3052 points and the five-week moving average at 3055 points, and protect and maintain the bullish market pattern? Can the top close above 3070 points? Can the four major ETFs of the national team protect the disk turn from falling to rising? Can the net flow of northbound funds converge? Can the disparity between 1220:4039 stocks falling more and rising less can the situation be improved? Can the trading volume be above 900 billion?