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文丨S1mple
Editor丨S1mple
The recent testimony of Admiral Aquilino, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, has attracted global attention.
To put it bluntly, this time Aquilino is drawing a red line for the US military to send troops, but it is still unknown whether this red line can really attract US troops.
So why did Aquilino suddenly make such a show? Is Meifei really good enough to wear a pair of pants?
Aquilino of the chicken thief
Aquilino's proposed terms for the U.S. military were largely based on the mainland coast guard's increasingly fierce standoff with the Philippines near Second Thomas Shoal.
Since June last year, the mainland coast guard and the Philippines have had confrontations almost twice a month, and the level of confrontation has been rising.
From the initial lack of contact between the two sides, it has now developed to the point where the mainland coast guard uses high-pressure water cannons to directly fire at Philippine transport ships to drive them away.
In March, there were two serious confrontations, both times with the use of high-pressure water cannons, and the Philippine side also released photos of ships damaged by water cannons.
The increasingly fierce confrontation has made the Philippines a little anxious, they do not want to give up the abandoned ship at Ren'ai Jiao, and they are afraid of a direct confrontation with the mainland.
After all, the Philippines knows its own affairs behind closed doors, and you say that the Philippines' military strength is already capable of countering the 055 drive, which is really wishful thinking, so now the Philippines desperately hopes that the US military will assist it.
The reason why the Philippines has such confidence is actually relying on the so-called "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty" to talk about things.
And this time, Aquilino raised the red line of the United States sending troops in the US Congress, in fact, in response to Marcos Jr.'s request.
But Aquilino is not a fool, and as the commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, he certainly knows what the consequences of a firm commitment can be.
So Aquilino said that he was a chicken thief, judging from Aquilino's contextual expression, it does not mean that the United States will consider invoking the treaty if the Philippines is dead.
Rather, if someone dies, the Philippines can consider invoking the treaty.
In fact, no matter how the Philippines thinks about it, it is up to the United States to decide whether to send troops or not, and in addition, if someone dies, what if the Philippines wants to calm things down?
There is also the problem that Aquilino did not say with certainty that the dead man would send troops immediately, but used consideration to refine his own statement.
In other words, even if the United States itself considers invoking the treaty, it is a consideration, not a certainty.
This is also a blank check, the Philippines can fill in this check at will, no matter how you write it, but whether this check can be cashed depends on the opinion of the United States itself.
In fact, no matter what you say, the United States will not choose to personally confront the mainland during this time period, for the simple reason that they have their own problems that have not been solved.
Mei Fei has a headache
Russia's Tsargrad TV station also reported on Aquilino's statement on March 30, and Russia, an old American adversary, also sees the United States' statement very clearly.
In terms of military and economic strength, the United States does not have an absolute advantage in the face of China, and if it is said that it is an ocean-going war, the United States can still rely on a large number of aircraft carriers to occupy an advantage.
But in this war that could happen on China's doorstep, the United States has no advantage at all, and China has enough stamina to be on China's side.
In fact, both the United States and the Philippines need to solve their own domestic problems first.
Needless to say, Biden is approaching the election, and seeing that the presidential shelf life is about to expire, Biden needs to think about how to get re-election at this stage.
Rather than choosing to clash with a major power that can wrestle with the United States militarily.
In addition, Biden announced his re-election campaign, because Biden did not dare to step down easily, and Biden thought of a way to rectify Trump before and almost imprisoned Trump.
If Biden loses his re-election this time and Trump takes office, then the case that Biden pressed down about him and his son before will become a breakthrough for Trump to take political revenge on Biden.
According to a CCTV News report, on January 16, local time, the Republican Party's first party primary vote was completed, and Trump crushed others with 51% of the support rate.
defeated the second place by about 30% of the percentage points, whether it is a red state or a swing state, Trump's approval rating is very high, so now Biden is expected to lose a few more hairs just because he is busy with the domestic election.
Not to mention that now that everyone in Israel is shouting and fighting, the United States can no longer support Israel openly, and Biden even asked Netanyahu to make changes in time.
In fact, to put it bluntly, this is Biden preparing for the next election.
The Philippines has not had much of a life in its own country, and Marcos Jr.'s campaign slogan was to inherit Duterte's political line, so it has gained a lot of support.
As a result, Marcos Jr. quickly changed his face as soon as he came up, not only overturning Duterte's political line, but also began to strengthen ties with the United States and began to constantly provoke the mainland in the South China Sea.
This not only displeased the people on the Philippine island, but also made Duterte have a lot of opinions about Marcos Jr.
Now that Duterte is openly criticizing Marcos Jr.'s domestic and foreign policies, you must know that Duterte's influence in the Philippines is very great, both politically and non-governmental.
In addition, Duterte's son Sebastian also called for Marcos Jr. to resign immediately, Sebastian is a member of the Philippine Congress and has a considerable number of supporters in Congress.
In addition to the political aspect, now that civil strife has broken out again in the Philippines, in fact, it is not enough to say that civil strife is not enough, and the Philippine New People's Army took the initiative to attack a military base in the Philippines, killing five people and injuring three others.
The Philippine military said the pursuit of the rebels was still ongoing.
It can be said that the United States and the Philippines are still in a state of anxiety at home, and domestic contradictions have not yet been resolved.
In fact, even if we do make a move, we will not be afraid, after all, compared to the South China Sea confrontation in 2016, this time is not even a small fight.
In other words, we were not afraid in 2016, and now it is 2024, will there be a situation of cowardice because of a Philippines?
I don't think so.
Marcos Jr. has been shouting on foreign social media and expressing his hardline stance on China, which is more like a political show.
While leaders in other countries have posted on social media, in the vast majority of cases, they have to return to the table when making real decisions.
What is said on the Internet is actually a word of mouth to put it bluntly, and it has no substantive effect.
Information source: Dawan News: "Philippine military and rebels exchange fire resulting in 5 dead and 3 wounded"
Global Times: "U.S. Commander Clamours: If Philippine Personnel Die, the "Mutual Defense Treaty" Can Be Invoked