Ali's focus on its main business is a very correct decision

Half a year after submitting its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Alibaba withdrew Cainiao's IPO application and decided to acquire the equity of Cainiao's minority shareholders and employees for US$3.75 billion. This matter should not be viewed in isolation, but should be viewed in conjunction with a series of events that have happened in the past six months or so:

In August 2023, Alibaba withdrew its plan to spin off Alibaba Cloud and distribute its equity to all shareholders, as Alibaba Cloud's technology infrastructure and AI R&D capabilities have proven to be indispensable to Alibaba Group.

In the first quarter of 2024, Alibaba reduced its holdings in Kuaigou Dache, Xiaopeng Motors and other shareholding companies in batches, and announced a plan to reduce its stake in Station B. Obviously, this is to recover the funds for the main business.

At the same time, Ali invested in five "unicorns" such as the dark side of the moon, Baichuan Intelligence, MiniMax, Zhipu AI, and Zero One Everything on the AI large model track. Throughout 2023, Alibaba is one of the most active Chinese Internet companies investing in AI.

This series of events seems to be a bit contradictory: why do we need to recycle funds while investing abroad, why did we withdraw the original plan to split and go public? But the logic behind it is the same: return to core business, shrink non-core investment, and reorganize strategic priorities. Previously, Ali CEO Wu Yongming had made it very clear - focusing on the main business of e-commerce and anchoring cloud computing + AI. The former is the foundation of CashCow and Alibaba Group, and the latter represents the future of the entire technology industry. Whatever is in line with the above strategy should continue to develop and even allocate more resources, and if it is not, it should be resolutely reduced, regardless of what the outside world may say about it.

Cloud computing + AI is the long-term growth direction, so Alibaba Cloud must stay within the group, and the investment in AI large models must be bold and decisive. Cainiao is an important part of Alibaba's core business and can provide important support capabilities for the main business of e-commerce, so it is more suitable for the group to continue to make strategic investment. In an interim analyst conference call on the evening of March 26, Alibaba's chairman Tsai Chongxin said: Ali decided to achieve in-depth synergy between Cainiao's operations and Taotian Group and AIDC (Ali International Digital Business Group), accelerate the construction of a global logistics network, and enable Cainiao to have the ability to deliver packages from anywhere to anywhere within 72 hours. "We hope that Cainiao can more deeply collaborate with the international cross-border e-commerce business, and Cainiao's management should focus on business development instead of being distracted by the IPO. ”

It should be admitted that among the domestic private logistics enterprises, the rookie is a very good one in terms of internationalization. As early as 2018, Cainiao began to invest a lot of resources in the layout of international logistics infrastructure, and adopted a very solid approach - each link and each link was opened and penetrated one by one, from domestic links to cross-border links, and then to build a local network one country at a time overseas, and finally built an "end-to-end" fully controllable logistics network. This model is quite heavy and laborious, but once completed, the efficiency will be unmatched by other models. In September 2023, Cainiao launched the "Global 5-Day Delivery" service in five countries for the first time, which is a manifestation of the above-mentioned logistics infrastructure capabilities. In today's increasingly fierce competition for e-commerce going overseas, it is conceivable that the in-depth collaboration with Cainiao Logistics will become an important competitive fulcrum for Alibaba's international e-commerce business.

Of course, from the perspective of the capital market, it is not a good time to spin off and go public. Taking the logistics industry as an example, although J&T Express, which was listed in Hong Kong last year, performed well after listing, it has now fallen below the issue price; SF Holdings has not moved after submitting its listing application in Hong Kong, and recent media reports have said that it may reduce the scale of its Hong Kong stock IPO; JD Logistics, which was listed in 2021, has already fallen below the issue price. At present, it seems that the downturn and illiquidity of the Hong Kong stock market may continue for some time, and most of the well-known unicorn companies that have submitted their statements to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in the past year are still waiting for opportunities. Incidentally, Alibaba's offer to minority shareholders reflects a valuation of about US$10.3 billion, which is reasonable compared with peers J&T (market value of HK$96.1 billion), SF Express (market value of RMB 178.1 billion) and JD Logistics (market value of HK$51.2 billion).

In the ad hoc conference call, Tsai also said: "Alibaba Group believes that holding a stake in the express company is of strategic importance and has no plans to sell it at this time." Investments related to the express delivery business are considered core assets and will not be considered for sale. "In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Alibaba further increased its investment in the logistics and express delivery industry, both internally and externally, because fulfillment is too important for e-commerce platforms. Tsai's above statement once again proves that Ali clearly knows what to do now and where to use valuable resources. Spending money without blinking an eye where it should be spent, and not hesitating to save money where it should be saved, is a smart attitude for individuals, and even more so for Internet giants.

Overall, the capital market understands and welcomes Alibaba's decision to withdraw Cainiao's IPO application. For example, HSBC's latest research report pointed out that the market has anticipated the possible withdrawal of Cainiao's listing, and Cainiao has deep value, and a share buyback plan to Cainiao employees at a valuation of US$10.3 billion would help boost morale. Tsai's commitment to continuing to maximize shareholder returns through share buybacks and dividends during the interim conference call was widely recognized by analysts. However, in the final analysis, the performance of a company in the capital market is determined by its business performance, not the other way around; now the question that everyone is most concerned about is, has Alibaba's business been adjusted? How do you view Alibaba's organizational changes in the past year?

The above questions cannot be answered in one sentence. We should recognise that the current external environment is quite complex, and it is unrealistic to expect immediate effects from change measures (and indeed not in a better market environment). However, especially in the six months since the new management took office, the most obvious change in Alibaba is its strategic focus - with e-commerce (domestic + international) and cloud computing as its core business, of which e-commerce focuses on consumer experience improvement and price power strategy, and cloud focuses on public cloud and AI, with a very clear direction. In the first nine months of the 2023-24 fiscal year, Alibaba's international e-commerce revenue increased by 46%, Cainiao's revenue increased by 27%, and the EBITA of Alibaba Cloud's intelligent segment increased by 51% year-on-year, and the EBITA margin has exceeded 5%. Of course, investors are most concerned about Taotian (China's e-commerce business), and Taotian is still inseparable from the support of Cainiao's logistics fulfillment capabilities to achieve market share and revenue expansion, which once again proves that it is right for Cainiao to make a long-term strategic investment by Alibaba Group.

In September 2023, Wu Yongming, who had just taken over the CEO of Taotian Group, issued an internal letter announcing that the post-80s management team would take over Taotian, and in March 2024, Ali Local Life Group announced a management change, with four younger managers taking over Ele.me and AutoNavi respectively, two of whom were post-80s, and almost at the same time, Hema also completed the management handover from the post-60s to the post-80s. Young business managers have more energy, more open minds, and are equipped to think about strategic issues on a longer timeline, which I believe everyone understands, so it goes without saying.

Historically, we've seen quite a few examples of big tech companies transforming, some successful, some not. From 2000 to 2014, Microsoft was mired in the quagmire, missing almost every outlet of the consumer Internet, and its market value was stagnant, while Google fell into a similar quagmire after 2018, which directly led to the transformation from a leader to a laggard in the competition for AI models. There are many internal and external conditions required to successfully complete the transformation and start the next phase of growth, but one thing is essential: management is clearly aware of what it needs to do and is committed to it. Alibaba's decision to withdraw its rookie IPO, as well as its decision to continue to reduce its holdings of non-core assets at the same time, reflect that it does meet the above conditions.

A good start is half the battle, but the transformation itself will be a long process that cannot be achieved overnight, and there are still many tough battles to be fought. In the past year, Ali has crossed the most difficult and dangerous hurdles in the midst of challenges, and in the process, it has also been getting rid of its burdens, focusing on its main business, and preparing for subsequent accumulation and construction. In any case, I hope that Ali will stick to the established strategic line, because this line is correct and worth executing.

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